Skills for the future Skills for future Europe: New evidence from new forecast Vladimir Kvetan Cedefop

Skills for the future General picture Challenges involved in implementing tools and principles for education, training and learning Connecting point - Learning outcomes Wider policy strategy –Need for increased action on national and EU levels – complementary approach –Importance of improving cooperation between stakeholders –Need for coherent approach for validating learning at the workplace

Skills for the future General picture (2) Key actions: –Increase of transparency of education and training to improve the relevance of qualification –Develop common qualifications standards and curricula and promotion of validation and competence measurement –Technical and operational support to all sectoral initiatives –Support and develop mutual trust and communication between partners competent authorities and stakeholders –Identify and assess future skills and competences

Skills for the future Cedefop’s skill needs analysis Forecasting (macro trends) Sectoral & occupational studies Employersurvey Employer survey Mismatch research

Skills for the future The new Cedefop skills forecast provides projections of skill supply and demand provides first analysis/indicators of LM imbalances Current approach: is based on improved methodology and data uses econometric modelling and time series uses official data sources (primarily Eurostat: Europop 2010, National accounts and LFS; DG ECFIN) covers EU-27, Norway, Switzerland (and CCs) covers period up to 2020 assumes modest recovery and a return to job growth

Skills for the future Key results more than 83 million job opportunities due to: –a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion demand); and –around 75 million jobs that will need to be filled as people retire or leave the workforce (replacement demand) job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and lower end of the job spectrum  possible risk of job polarisation –the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many traditional manual or routine jobs will decline –Place for growth in non-routine tasks even for low skilled Structural changes –most job opportunities will be in services –Impact on manufacturing and primary industry not so hard as expected a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having at least medium-level qualifications in 2020 skill demand will lag behind skill supply and brings risk of over- qualification in the short-term

Skills for the future Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+ Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) crisis 5,5 million job losses 8 million new jobs forecast

Skills for the future Impact of the recession on the employment in EU-27+ (cont.) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Sectoral developments in Europe (EU 27) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Employment in manufacturing sector (EU 27) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Growth and uncertainty: sectors Source: Cedefop forecast 2012

Skills for the future Developments in occupations 83 million job opportunities between Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) million jobs

Skills for the future Structural and occupation specific components Source: Cedefop (2012)

Skills for the future Demand for qualifications Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012) million jobs

Skills for the future Labour force by qualification Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Highly qualified youth and women Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Ageing in Europe Ageing in Europe (change between 2010 and 2020) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Matching demand and supply Broadly: trends in both skill demand and supply go in the same direction BUT  supply rises faster (highly qualified)  demand rises slower (crisis effect) RISK OF SKILL MISMATCH

Skills for the future Matching demand and supply: difficulty to hire Source: Cedefop (2012)

Skills for the future Employment by qualifications Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Skills mix by occupation in manufacturing sector (EU 27) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future Employment by qualifications (plant and machine operators) Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)

Skills for the future New data and results ONLINE Look for at

Skills for the future Conclusions High unemployment vs. skill shortages Due to the crisis supply of higher qualifications rises faster than demand Matching calls for the „right“ skills  More detailed skill analyses  Partnerships  Guidance and counselling

Skills for the future Thank you for your attention More information: or Access the forecast data and results online at