1 Contaminated Land and Brownfield Remediation 22 nd September 2009 Ian Heasman, Brownfield Remediation Manager Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd Brownfield Remediation and House Building : An Economic Outlook

Contents The Economic Outlook and the Housing Market Brownfield Remediation Market Financial and Regulatory Market Drivers Remediation in a Brownfield Finance Context Conclusion

The Economic Outlook and the Housing Market

UK Economic Outlook Consensus building on an end to the UK recession While there are still concerns about stagnation or a W-shaped recovery, business confidence is building Global Picture: China and India economies moving ahead, Japan, France and Germany all out of recession in Q2 2009, US recession appears to be ending

UK Economic Outlook Tight credit constraints Huge public debt – tax rises and public spending cuts needed but will put brakes on recovery Unemployment still set to rise

Housing Starts and Completions June 2009 Source: CLG Housing Statistical Release August 2009

Housing Price Nationwide: House prices rose for a fourth month running Average cost of a home rose by 1.6% in August to £ 160,224. Prices now 3.2% higher than at the beginning of the year, although still 14.4% below peak in October 2007 Increases due to: > Increased economic optimism > Slow down in new build (supply limitations) > Very low interest rates (BoE base remains 0.5%)

Housing Market Improvement in some UK regions – particularly London and the SE – but held back by: Availability of mortgage finance Continuing concerns over aspects of the recession such as unemployment “In the first half of 2009, trading conditions improved significantly. We saw stable conditions in the UK, achieving increased sales rates and stable pricing”. Taylor Wimpey Interim Trading Statement for six months to June 2009

Land Market 2008 / 09 What happenedWhat's Next 2011 Need to increase outlets House builders are looking to buy land again Right location, right price

Cash Flow Pre-acquisition Acquisition Site PreparationConstruction Remediation Roads Sewers Spend Revenue

Political Outlook Tories: committed to increasing housing numbers Abolition of Regional Spatial Strategies and housing targets Polices based around ‘ localism ’ : local decision making Cost cutting: Quangos? Provision of regional and sub-regional infrastructure Serious concerns within the house building industry as to how new policies would work in practice

Outlook for House Builders Slow but consistent growth from a low base Land constraints – lack of available outlets and difficulty in getting sufficient outlets open quickly – reduced workforce and capital expenditure Macro-economic concerns remain but are reduced Concern about planning hiatus during possible government change

Brownfield Remediation Market

2008/2009 Survival! Internal Reviews – Lean and Mean Increase in brownfield inquires over last 3-4months – not yet resulting in many new substantive contracts Anticipate remainder 2009 and much of 2010 to remain tough – but easing significantly afterwards

Recession Changes Certainty/Risk Management Liability Management Time Cost Management RiskQuality and Control Cash Flow Tax Efficiency

High Cost Low Cost Slow Quick Money Light -Time Heavy Remediation Boom Zone Bust Zone Thermal Chemical Biological Physical Anytime Zone MNA Phytoremediation Incineration

Remediation and Cash Flow Cash Flow – the balance of cash being received and paid by a business Time Spend High Mobilisation Costs High Running Costs Low Mobilisation Costs Low Operation Costs

Financial and Regulatory Market Drivers

Planning Drivers 60% of dwellings on previously-developed land Target Remains 79% 2008 (77% 2007) (CLG) Brownfield first sequential test