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Evaluation Objectives Assess the performance and impact of IFAD- supported operations in Nepal; Assess the IFAD-Government partnership; and Generate findings and recommendations that can inform the next COSOP (planned in 2013). 22

Evaluation Methodology Assessment of three pillars of the partnership:  (i)Project portfolio  (ii) Non-lending activities; and  (iii) COSOPs and country program management Internationally recognised evaluation criteria and a six point rating scale Evaluation period Included analysis of conflict and fragility (using WDR-2011 methodology) Conflict and Fragility (using WDR-2011 methodology) 3 3

Evaluation Process December 2011Preparatory Mission, Jan-Feb 2012Desk Review March-April 2012Main Evaluation Mission, May-July 2012Report Writing Sept-Oct 2012Discussion and Feedback November 2012Presentation at the Board January 2013National Roundtable Workshop Feb-March 2013 Agreement at Completion Point (ACP) Point 44

Country Context Low-income country (GDP per capita US$ 642) Difficult political situation: internal armed conflict since 1990’s, fragile peace since 2006 Population concentrated in rural areas – approximately 83% Moderate economic growth (3.5% in 2011) Economy dominated by agriculture (< 33% of GDP), employing more than 33% of population. Low yields and constraints on land (only 25% cultivable). Human Development Index ranking 157 out of 187 countries Strong gains in poverty reduction (from 42% in 1996 to 25% in 2011), mainly driven by remittances (22% of GDP) and migration. Yet poverty remains severe with malnutrition and food insecurity. Unequal progress across gender, ethnicities and regions. Among most assisted countries in the world (US$ 1,080 million disbursed by multilateral and bilateral donors in fiscal year 2010/2011). ODA to Nepal has almost doubled since

IFAD Country Programme Total IFAD lending: US$146m; total portfolio cost US$ 363 m, out of which USD$ 55m in counterpart funding) Two country strategies (COSOPs): I COSOP: supporting “sustainable livelihoods and social justice” in remote, isolated and disadvantaged areas of the Mid- and Far-Western Regions II COSOP: (i) increased access to economic opportunities – focus on growth nodes; (ii) community infrastructure and services; and (iii) greater inclusion of disadvantaged groups 6 6

IFAD Country Programme (cont.) 13 projects since 1978 (four on-going). 7 country specific grants (US$ 2.8m) and 32 regional grants (US$ 32.2m) Main thematic areas of the portfolio: leasehold forestry; rural finance; infrastructure development; support for agriculture (crops and livestock); and agricultural value chain development. Cross-cutting themes: gender equality and social inclusion (GESI); income-generating activities; and social development 7 7

Integrated Rural Development Project Small Farmer Development Project Command Area Development Project Second Small Farmer Development Project Aquaculture Development Project Production Credit for Rural Women Project Hills Leasehold Forestry and Forage Development Project Groundwater Irrigation and Flood Development Project Poverty Alleviation Project in Western Terai Western Uplands Poverty Alleviation Project Leasehold Forestry and Livestock Programme Poverty Alleviation Fund Phase II High Value Agriculture Project in Hill and Mountain Areas Improved Seeds for Farmers Programme TC IFAD-Supported Projects Timeline 8

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Main Findings Portfolio Performance Overall relevant objectives and thematic focus, in line with GON priorities. Negative role of exogenous factors: armed insurgency and weak institutional capacity. Gender equality and social inclusion aspect in IFAD projects generally improved over time. Design issues: geographic dilution (43 districts) and complexity (too many components and implementing agencies) in the context of severe institutional fragility. Visible improvements on most aspects of portfolio in recent years, but sustainability remains a big issue (e.g. project-supported community groups) 10

Main Findings (cont.) Portfolio Performance (cont.) Leasehold Forestry – new concept of forest management; effective (but costly) mechanism for poverty reduction, community development and forest regeneration Rural development (incl. community development, infrastructure, agriculture) – positive contributions in terms of group formation, income generation and community infrastructure development (PAF) but less so in PAPWT and WUPAP Rural finance – ad hoc approach, the least successful part of the portfolio. Micro-finance (Grameen Bank model) efforts unsuccessful. 11

Main Findings (cont.) Non-Lending Activities Policy dialogue agenda relevant, but very ambitious, lacked specific objectives and not supported by adequate resources. Knowledge management (in 2006 COSOP) mainly through grants program. Some valuable studies financed (e.g. ICIMOD). Visible improvement during last year. Partnership strategy overall relevant, but few concrete examples of co-financing (PAF, bilateral TA, ADS). Significant grant resources mobilized (total 39 grants, incl. regional). Some very effective (LLP), but regional grants had modest synergies with country programme. 12

Main Findings (Cont.) COSOP Performance Overall, positive contribution: project pipeline implemented, but policy dialogue did not materialize. Strategic objectives relevant and in line with development priorities At the same time, modalities and resources for working in conflict were not specified Underestimated challenges of low capacity at local government level 13

Main Findings (Cont.) Program Management Lack of continuity: 8 Country Programme Managers (CPMs) in 10 years, all Rome-based Positive development: appointment of CPC in 2007 Inadequate resources for programme management in conditions of institutional weakness and fragility Fragmentation of programme implementation (multiple implementing agencies, large areas) Lack of coordination with donor partners – generally fragmented ODA for agriculture and rural development 14

Key Conclusions Overall positive and productive presence in the country, Relevant but overly ambitious country strategies At times poor program design and implementation Challenging country context – post-conflict Country dialogue weak due to frequent staff changes and lack of resources Need to diversify strategy, move away from “business as usual” Two-pronged approach Poverty reduction driven by remittances and migration Limited resources for programme management 15

Main recommendations I. Strategic Partnership Paradigm shift: two-pronged approach, combining “basic needs” approach with high-value agriculture development focusing on developing profitable rural enterprises rather than aid-dependent groups Avoid geographic dilution, concentrate on fewer districts, and on road corridors for high value agriculture Factor in the conflict dimension in IFAD strategies and programmes 16

Main recommendations (cont.) II. Policy Dialogue Strengthen the link between policy dialogue and portfolio – include policy work in project budgets Agree with Government on joint policy dialogue agenda Improve cooperation with local and international partners through a better-targeted grant programme 17

Main recommendations (cont.) III Operations and Program Management : Local context and implementation support: need more resources in fragile state context. Possible sources: grants and project financing. Class and caste-based interventions: Consider forming groups based on economic criteria, while making sure disadvantaged groups are included. Improve measuring and communicating impact of IFAD-supported operations. Align COSOP and PBA cycle management to avoid “last moment utilisation” of the PBA. 18

Thank you 19