Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) The African Development Bank: Ready to Face the Challenges of a Changing Africa? EBA Seminar Stockholm.

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Presentation transcript:

Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) The African Development Bank: Ready to Face the Challenges of a Changing Africa? EBA Seminar Stockholm 23 March 2015

Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Overview of Presentation 1.Context: Africa Rising? 2.AfDB Overview 3.Key Challenge: Non-Concessional Lending a.Business Practices b.Financial Policies 4.Conclusions

Africa Rising? GDP Per Capita (PPP) (SSA) Real GDP Growth

Africa Stagnating? Human Development Index 2013

Africa Changing Growth is accelerating – how will it play out? Population boom – how will it be channeled? New External Finance Players New Attitudes

AfDB vs. Other MDBs 2013 Lending Commitments

AfDB vs. Other MDBs in Africa 2013 Lending Commitments

Non-Concessional Lending: Falling Short 2010 (Proj) (Proj) (Proj) (Proj) 2013 Sovereign Non- Sovereign Total Project vs. Actual Lending Commitments,

ADB Capital is Not Being Put to Use Equity as % of Outstanding Loan Portfolio

Why Does Non-Concessional Window Matter? Not serving its members – Some can borrow but don’t want to – Others want to, but can’t Link between ADB and ADF – Finance – Knowledge Future of AfDB and Africa – Financial strength of MDB model – Decline in concessional donations

Business Practices: Bureaucracy Average Sovereign Loan Approval Times

Business Practices: Instruments and Knowledge Public sector loan mentality; minimal financial innovation Knowledge value-added is insufficient

Financial Policies: Credit Policy CountryIssue Year Yield (%)US$ AmountMaturity Zambia mln10 yr Ghana mln10 yr Nigeria mln10 yr Rwanda mln10 yr Tanzania mln7 yr Kenya / bln/500 mln10 yr/5 yr Ghana bln12 yr Senegal mln10 yr Ivory Coast mln10 yr Zambia bln10 yr Recent Sovereign Bond Issues, Concessional Countries

Financial Policies: Credit Rating Is AAA necessary? Limits flexibility – Portfolio and Country Risk – Opening to ADF borrowers – Private sector lending Consider 1 or 2 step downgrade as part of strategy to expand operational relevance – Would increase spread, but not huge – CAF: AA-, and business is booming in LatAm

Adapt for the Future To have an impact on Africa’s future, AfDB needs to develop a culture of: – Risk-taking – Financial innovation – Demand-driven Underneath everything: GOVERNANCE

Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Thank You! Chris Humphrey