Lecture(12)

Risk & Uncertainty Definition “Risk” and “uncertainty” are two terms basic to any decision making framework. Risk can be defined as imperfect knowledge where the probabilities of the possible outcomes are known, and uncertainty exists when these probabilities are not known (Hardaker).

Project risk management definition The PRM process is defined as “the process of taking management action in order to respond appropriately to all identified risks to maximise the likelihood of the project meeting its objectives within its constraints, by monitoring risk exposure and adjusting project strategy to keep risk within acceptable levels”

Project risk management process Risk identification Risk Analysis - Qualitative risk analysis - Quantitative risk analysis Risk mitigation Risk Monitoring and follow up

Selection of parameters for Risk analysis

Accounting for Unforeseen Changes and Events 1 Technologies changes affecting water supply and demand 2 New finding that affect federal and state environment regulation 3 Major industry location and relocation 4 Hurricanes, earthquake, or landslides 5 Climate change affecting water flows and water levels 6 War and insurgent action such as happened in Gaza before one year

Uncertainties in Water Resources Management

Environmental Risk Assessment and Management

Management of Water Quantity and Quality

Modeling and decision making processes in water resources management

Stochastic variation of the water level in a reservoir.

Effective Decision-Making process 1 It focuses on what is important 2 It is logical and consistent 3 It acknowledge both subjective and objective factors and blends analytical with intuitive thinking 4 It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resole a particular dilemma 5 It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion 6 It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible