More Is Different Sorin Solomon HUJ and ISI Real world is controlled … –by the exceptional, not the mean; –by the catastrophe, not the steady drip; –by the very rich, not the ‘middle class’. we need to free ourselves from ‘average’ thinking. Philip Anderson

Executive Abstract: The Multi-Agent Complex Systems approach identifies -singular local elements of change / growth (even at early stages where, as whole, the system seems in regress) -spatio-temporal patterns of growth relevant resources - socio-economic / human interactive causal mechanisms leading to growth (e.g. education / cultural level / tradition). Concrete interdisciplinary example: post-liberalization Poland - identifies emergence of resilient, sustainable, developing patterns likely to support sustainable global growth - prediction of (space-time) singular fluctuation patterns that may lead to increased social inequality and economic instability (but also to novelty emergence) The classical paradigms fail in predicting emergence of novelty / development in bio/ cogni / socio/ econo systems - Extension of study to other regions / disciplines

“Almost all the social phenomena … obey the logistic growth” Elliot W Montroll I would urge… logistic equation early in the education … in the everyday world of politics and economics Lord Robert May - Nonlinear Terms (Competion/Saturation) Growth ~  Size “continuum” Logistic Solution: uniform in space and time:  < 0 Size  TIME

In reality, in Growth ~  Size,   is the result of multi-agent spatio-temporal distributed discrete contributions This leads to a complex solution presenting fractal / intermittent collective macro-objects with self-organized adaptive behavior Theorem: resilience and sustainability even for <0 Logistic Differential Equation  < 0 Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction     TIME Size

ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 0 Andrzej Nowak lab Poland Post-Liberalization Social-Economic-Political Development predictions: Multi-Agents vs Differential Equations Seemingly similar regions before liberalization Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction     Logistic Differential Equation  <

Nowak Emerges island of growth Large region of decay First year: Global Decay; - MACS predicts Future Growth - DE predicts continuous decay (based on the same Logistsic parameters !) Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction     Logistic Differential Equation  < ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 1 Andrzej Nowak lab

Most regions are devastated But MACS sees already nuclei of growth Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction     Logistic Differential Equation  < ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 2 Andrzej Nowak lab Yr2:Globally, the situation seems getting worse and worse

MACS wins over DE (for the same Logistic parameters) Development spreads from the nuclei to the rest of the country Logistic Multi-Agent Prediction     Logistic Differential Equation  < ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 3 Andrzej Nowak lab

What were the A’s ? ECONOMIC Enterprises per Capita Economic Liberalization of Poland: year 12 Andrzej Nowak lab

EDUCATION (‘88) !!!! Nowak the A’s ! Andrzej Nowak lab

EDUCATION (‘88) (note complete correspondence with growth areas AFTER but NOT BEFORE liberalization !) Nowak

Economic Growth is in turn “A’s” for Political Transformation Voting for Reformist Parties Nowak

Fractal Wealth Distribution: Scaling; Power laws Zipfplot of thewealthsof the investors in the Forbes 400 of 2003 vs. their ranks. The corresponding model results are shown in the inset. Dell Buffet 20 ALLEN GATES WALMART No one however, has yet exhibited a stable social order, ancient or modern, which has not followed the Pareto pattern… Davis; Cowles Commission for Research in Economics Pareto’s curve … great generalizations of human knowledge. Snyder 1939

stochastic Logistic systems=> Pareto Laws Theorem : Generically The 100 year old Pareto puzzle is solved by combining the 100 year old logistic Lotka-Volterra equation with the 100 year old Boltzmann Statistical Mechanics Wide Interdisciplinary Experimental Confirmation Nr of Species vs individuals size Nr of Species vs number of specimens Nr of Species vs their life time Nr of Languages vs number of speakers Nr of countries vs population / size Nr of towns vs. population Nr of product types vs. number of units sold Nr of treatments vs number of patients treated Nr of patients vs cost of treatment Nr of moon craters vs their size Nr of earthquakes vs their strenth Nr of meteorites vs their size Nr of voids in universe vs their size Nr of galaxies vs their size Nr of rives vs the size of their basin

Globalization (efficient but unstable fluctuations) Local Consumption Economy (inefficient but very stable (if population is stable)) Theorem: Logistic Multi-Agent Systems=>Intermittent Fluctuations

Distribution of individual wealth ~ (by MACS Prediction) Distribution of global financial fluctuations Social equity is good for the financial stability ! Levy

fractal space distribution Prediction of campaign success (15/17) Goldenberg Air-view of a sub-urban neighborhood; crosses on the roofs indicate air-conditioner purchase

Desertification / Reclaim space-time localized patterns Mediterranean; uniform 500mm Semi-arid; patchy Desert;uniform 200mm Lavee+Sarah

Piemonte Belarus Piemonte Romania Future and on-going studies

Conclusions The connections between the main ubiquitous complexity features Pareto-Zipf scaling laws / Levy-stable fat-tail fluctuations, Fractal-Intermittent singular spatio-temporal Growth patterns, Logistic Malthus-Verhulst-Lotka-Volterra-Eigen-Schuster system Percolation, phase transitions, Emergence of adaptive objects can be understood and expressed within a comprehensive coherent interdisciplinary research framework. Its applicability in monitoring and inducing novelty emergence, social change, stable economic growth and sustainable development has been demonstrated.