Impacts of the economic crisis on migration in Europe A.P. Russo (URV) ESPON 2013 Internal Seminar Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy and Territorial Agenda December Vilnius, Lithuania

Description of main migration patterns before and after the global financial crisis Discussion of drivers and barriers to workforce mobility The territorial effects of migration Perspectives for the future Challenges for EU territorial policy STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION 2

3 Net Migration rates All age groups, ESPON space, yearly av  GLOBAL SHIFT OF POPULATION FROM EAST/NORTH TO SOUTH/WEST  A wider ‘attraction area’ in the Western Mediterranean  Some MEGAs among the strongest attractors, as well as second tier metro regions  Most other major urban regions in the EU core show a moderate attraction capacity  Moderate to severe population loss in remote regions  Relative population growth in more densely populated regions within national systems

Three cohorts of populations hinting at different motivations for mobility and territorial effects: Mid-career migrants (25 to 49 y.o.) Economic, quality of place-related drivers central Core regions, (some) metro areas, the Western Mediterranean favoured Pre-employment migrants (16 to 24 y.o.) Opportunity-driven, social capital, short transits National capital, second tier and university cities, ‘leisurely’ places favoured Late career, pre-retirement migrants (50 to 64 y.o.) Quality of life and environmental amenities as main drivers Intermediate and rural regions close to large cities, ‘warm’ and cheap regions favoured MIGRATION BY AGE GROUPS

5 Mid-career workforce mobility Yearly average net migration rates for the y.o. cohort, ESPON space,  ECONOMY-RELATED SEGMENT OF MIGRANT WORKERS  High correlation with regional economic dynamism;  Some MEGA especially in converging regions  Some ‘tigers’  Coastal regions (tourism market drive)  Some intermediate/rural regions

6 Starters’ mobility Yearly average net migration rates for the y.o. cohort, ESPON space,  OPPORTUNITY AND SOCIAL- CAPITAL RELATED MOBILITY  High correlation with “mid- career” group, with a twist  UK, Italy and Spain preferred destinations of the young  National capitals favoured - 8% globally vs. 4-5% of other regions  Second tier cities  Knowledge regions, university cities

7 Late-career migration Yearly average net migration rates for the y.o. cohort, ESPON space,  MORE DECIDEDLY AMENITY- DRIVEN MOBILITY  More decided trend from NE to SW at the level of individual countries  Strong component of interregional, intra-national migration  Coastal regions in Spain, Italy, France  Non-urban regions close to MEGA also destinations of this mobility  Capital cities and MEGA (especially in the northern core) losing this cohort

POST-CRISIS MIGRATION PATTERS 8 General slow-down of migration trends Change in migratory balances in some countries Some in-migration countries (e.g. Western Med Arc) in have become net exporters of migration in Strongest welfare countries in Western Europe have strengthened their in- migration profiles Regional divergence accentuated? ‘Return’ migration Harshening of out-migration in some countries (e.g. Baltic Sea Region) Gender and age groups unbalances deepened

9 Migration profiles,

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Drivers of migration: (comparative) economic situations, but also... Different forms of territorial capital explain 60% of the overall variation in net migration scoresz ‘Pure’ economic drivers are likely to have gone back to be the most relevant in the post-crisis period Boosters / barriers to mobility in the ‘policy black box’ The territorial effects of mobility Regions with low GDP / high employment / poor territorial capital endowments have been ‘source’ of migration in ; however this has not dampened economic activity in Highly attractive regions had a more torrid downturn in subsequent years DRIVERS AND TERRITORIAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION 11

PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE 12 TRENDS  Persisting shift of population from NE to SW from rural to urban areas From the periphery to the core CHALLENGES  ‘Brain drain’  Pressure on metropolitan areas  Ageing and gender disequilibria in rural regions

FEEDBACK EFFECTS Population movements in and out of regions change regional characteristics driving migration FEEDBACK EFFECTS Population movements in and out of regions change regional characteristics driving migration PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE (CONT) 13 MOBILITY DRIVERS Economic Territorial Antropic Social Etc. MOBILITY DRIVERS Economic Territorial Antropic Social Etc. MIGRATION TRENDS Regions affected unevenly by migration flows and other mobilities MIGRATION TRENDS Regions affected unevenly by migration flows and other mobilities POLICY LEVERS Locally, may enhance attractiveness in one region (with external effects on competing regions and sending regions) At EU level, may alter the distribution of migration drivers to ‘steer’ migration trends towards desired objectives POLICY LEVERS Locally, may enhance attractiveness in one region (with external effects on competing regions and sending regions) At EU level, may alter the distribution of migration drivers to ‘steer’ migration trends towards desired objectives

Migration policies as place-based, no ‘one size fits all’ but… Regions that become specialist in one form of mobility less resilient to external shocks  Consistency and coherence of regional / local efforts? Positive effects of human mobility are registered not only in destinations but also in origin regions  ‘partnerships’ between regions? Non work-related mobility can (also) produce positive externalities in attractive regions  (some forms of) tourism as a lever of convergence? What role for the EU? Migrations matter for smart, inclusive, sustainable development …. … but also for territorial cohesion objectives! INTEGRATING MIGRATIONS IN THE EU TERRITORIAL STRATEGY 14

Migration policies as place-based, no ‘one size fits all’ but… Negative externalities and thresholds may also be at work in regions that become specialist in one form of mobility  Consistency and coherence of regional / local efforts? Positive effects of human mobility are registered not only in destinations but also in origin regions  ‘partnerships’ between regions? Non work-related mobility can (also) produce positive externalities in attractive regions  (some forms of) tourism as a lever of convergence? What role for the EU? Migrations matter for smart, inclusive, sustainable development …. … but also for territorial cohesion objectives! INTEGRATING MIGRATIONS IN THE EU TERRITORIAL STRATEGY 15

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CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE OF CLUSTERS 20 EMPLOYMENT Cl. 4 Cl. 8 Cl. 3

CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE OF CLUSTERS 21 UNEMPLOYMENT Cl. 3 Cl. 4

CHARACTERISTICS AND PERFORMANCE OF CLUSTERS 22 INNOVATION (Patents) Cl. 5