Back to the Future Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC January 2011 On Behalf of: ABC – Central Florida

The Big Chill

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2011* Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2010 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2011 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth RankExchangeIndex2008 % Change 3London SEFTSE % 1NYSE GroupDJI A-33.8% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market-34.2% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite-35.4% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-39.6% 8Bolsa De MedridMadrid General-40.0% 6Frankfurt SEDAX-40.2% 4Tokyo SENikkei % 5EuronextCAC % 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index-47.9% 10Borsa ItalianaMIBTel-48.5% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth RankExchangeIndex2009 % Change 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite 77.2% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index 51.4% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6Frankfurt SEDAX 29.9% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 26.8% 8Bolsa De MedridMadrid General 26.7% 3London SEFTSE % 5EuronextCAC % 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB 19.5% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market 18.4% 4Tokyo SENikkei % Source: Yahoo! Finance

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2010 Growth RankExchangeIndex2010 % Change 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 16.9% 6Frankfurt SEDAX 16.1% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 14.4% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 11.0% 3London SEFTSE % 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index 5.3% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market -1.7% 4Tokyo SENikkei % 5EuronextCAC % 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB -13.2% 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite -14.3% 8Bolsa De MedridMadrid General -19.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of May 2009

Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2010 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2010Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of April 2010

Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of November 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through December /10: +103k Between December 2009 and December 2010, the nation gained 1.1 million jobs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Initial Unemployment Claims, 4-week moving average Seasonally adjusted January December 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Private Sector Job Openings, SA January 2001 through November 2010 November 2010: 3,248 October 2010: 3,328 November 2009: 2,456

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployed Workers per Private Sector Job Opening, SA January 2001 through November 2010 November 2010: 4.6 October 2010: 4.5 November 2009: 6.2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2007 v. December 2010 All told 7,239K Jobs Lost

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups December 2009 v. December 2010 All told 1,124K Jobs Gained

National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change February 2000 – December 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Florida Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2009 v. December 2010 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9%

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2009 v. December 2010 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Orlando Total: +10.8K; +1.1% FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9%

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2009 v. December 2010 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Tampa Total: +1.7K; +0.2% FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9%

Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA) November 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAURRankMSAUR 1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC- VA-MD-WV6.011Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA9.1 2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- WI6.512St. Louis, MO-IL9.5 3Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH7.413 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA10.3 4Baltimore-Towson, MD7.813 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA10.3 5Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX8.215 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA8.516Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI12.0 6Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ8.517 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA12.1 8Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX8.617 Miami-Fort Lauderdale- Pompano Beach, FL Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- NJ-DE-MD8.619 Tampa-St. Petersburg- Clearwater, FL Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI9.020 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA14.3

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: November 10’ =9.8% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2010 RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1NORTH DAKOTA3.818ARKANSAS7.935IDAHO9.5 2NEBRASKA4.419LOUISIANA8.035INDIANA9.5 3SOUTH DAKOTA4.620ALASKA8.135MISSOURI9.5 4NEW HAMPSHIRE5.521MASSACHUSETTS8.238OHIO9.6 5VERMONT5.821NEW YORK8.238WEST VIRGINIA9.6 6IOWA6.323TEXAS8.340DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA9.7 7HAWAII6.424DELAWARE8.541NORTH CAROLINA9.8 7WYOMING6.424NEW MEXICO8.542MISSISSIPPI10.1 9VIRGINIA6.724PENNSYLVANIA8.543GEORGIA KANSAS6.827COLORADO8.844KENTUCKY OKLAHOMA6.828CONNECTICUT9.045OREGON MINNESOTA7.029ALABAMA9.146SOUTH CAROLINA MONTANA7.229NEW JERSEY9.147RHODE ISLAND MAINE7.331ILLINOIS9.348MICHIGAN MARYLAND7.431WASHINGTON9.349FLORIDA UTAH7.533ARIZONA9.450CALIFORNIA WISCONSIN7.533TENNESSEE9.451NEVADA14.5

Florida MSA’s Unemployment Rates November 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMetropolitan AreaUE RateRankMetropolitan Area UE Rate 1Gainesville, FL8.79 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL12.6 2Tallahassee, FL9.011 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL11.112Punta Gorda, FL12.9 4Jacksonville, FL11.613Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL13.3 4Panama City-Lynn Haven, FL11.613Lakeland, FL13.3 6Orlando-Kissimmee, FL11.915Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL12.116Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL14.5 8Naples-Marco Island, FL12.417Ocala, FL Palm Bay-Melbourne- Titusville, FL12.6

Trading Places

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through December 2010 Source: Freddie Mac

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through November 2010 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through December 2010 Source: Economy.com

Mortgage Banker’s Association Mortgage Applications Purchase Index January 2006 through December 2010 Source: Economy.com

Source: The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index December 2007 through December 2010

Source: ABC ABC’s National Backlog Average November 2008 through September 2010 Sept. 09 – Sept. 10: +13.7%

Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place June 2006 through November 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau November 2010: TypeValue% Oct-10% Nov-09 Private$ %-16.5% Public$ %3.3% Total$ %-6.8% Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Nov. 10: $563.4 billion -21.6%

National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector November 2010 v. November 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Inputs to Construction PPI January December 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Key Commodity Prices January December 2010 Source: BLS: EIA

Die Hard

U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through December 2010 Source: Census

U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store November 2009 v. November 2010 Source: Economy.com

National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through December 2010 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit * Source: Congressional Budget Office * data are projections

Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities RankState%RankState%RankState% 1Illinois50.9%18Missouri14.4%35Massachusetts6.4% 2New Jersey37.4%19Mississippi14.1%36Iowa5.6% 3Nevada37.1%20Wisconsin12.8%37West Virginia4.1% 4South Carolina26.6%21Idaho12.6%HawaiiNA 5Oregon25.0%22Maryland12.2%OklahomaNA 6Minnesota24.5%23Ohio11.0%TennesseeNA 7Texas22.3%24Florida10.4%States Total18.9% 8California22.2%25Vermont10.4% 9Louisiana22.0%26Georgia10.3% 10Connecticut20.8%27Rhode Island9.9% 11North Carolina20.0%28Pennsylvania9.7% 12Washington18.5%29Nebraska9.2% 13New York16.9%30Kentucky9.1% 14Arizona16.6%31Kansas8.8% 15Maine16.1%32Montana8.3% 16Colorado15.3%33New Mexico7.6% 17Virginia14.8%34Michigan6.5% Projected State Budget Shortfalls for FY 2012 As Percentage of FY 2011 Budget Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, D.C, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming are not projected to have budget shortfalls in Note: Kentucky and Virginia have two-year budgets. They closed their FY2012 shortfalls when they enacted their budgets for the FY2011-FY2012 biennium. Combined gaps of $113 billion for 2012.

Return to Oz Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; We’ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective; Too soon to tell if broad inflation domestically or globally will be problematic; Election results will be good for economy because gridlock is desirable, at least to a certain extent; Global economy on the mend for now; Commodity price surges remain a threat; 2011: GDP 3.0%-3.5%; 1.6M jobs; US UE stays above 9%; 2012????