Egypt AnPro-Model Egypt AnPro-Model Manual Item – 4 How to make Alternative Scenarios This Manual Item shows the steps to be taken in order to produce Alternative Scenarios. It requires using Manual Item -5: Worksheets for making Scenarios

2 Egypt AnPro - Model Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 3: How to make Alternative Scenarios Step 1: assign Scenario N°: …………… Scenario Name: ……………. Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

3 Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Step 2 The objectives for this scenario concern: Access: ………………………………… ………………………………………. Quality: ……………………………….... ……………………………………….  List the objectives in Worksheet (Part 1) Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

4 Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Step 3  Identify those variables in the …………… sub-sector model which are directly related to achieving these objectives: 3.1  Identify the relevant tables in the sub-sector model 3.2  Write down the table number in the worksheet 3.3  Indicate whether it is an independent variable or a dependent variable  Fill in Worksheet (Part 2) Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

5 Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Step 4  List in Worksheet (Part 3) the targets  which you want to set in this Scenario Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

6 Step 5 - In Worksheet (Part 4), in the first row, fill in the names of the independent variables you noted in the previous Part 3 For each independent variable: 5.1  find in the model the values for the base scenario 5.2  enter them in the Worksheet table in the columns “base scenario” 5.3  In the columns “New scenario”, enter the new targets (i.e. the targets of the New scenario)  Note: the targets which you enter are the result of a target setting dialogue which has taken place among stakeholders. Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

7 Step  Identify the tables in which you expect to find the projection results: 6.2  Write down the table number in the Worksheet (Part 5) 6.3  Identify the variables for which you expect to find the scenario results 6.4  Write down the variable names in Worksheet (Part 5) Continued on next page  Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

8  Step 6, Continued from previous page 6.5  In Worksheet (Part 6), in the first row, fill in the names of the result variables you noted in Part 5 For each result variable: 6.6  find in the model the values for the base scenario 6.7  enter them in Worksheet (Part 6) in the columns labeled “base scenario” 6.8  In Worksheet (Part 6) enter the projection results produced by the New Scenario in the columns “New scenario” Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

9 Step 7 The Worksheet (Part 6) contains the projection results produced by the New scenario as well as the projections of the Base scenario.  assess the feasibility of the New scenario 7.1  Compare the two projections in order to make sure that the objectives of the New scenario are achievable in a realistic, affordable way: 7.1  Check whether the budget required for the new scenario appears feasible 7.2  Check whether the size (amount) of essential inputs such as teachers, classrooms and other inputs appear to be within reasonable, affordable limits Continued on next page  Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4

10  Step 7, Continued from previous page 7.3  Discuss the projection results with stakeholders 7.4  In case of non-agreement on the New scenario, make another scenario which is more achievable and more acceptable to the stakeholders 7.5  Continue this dialogue (iterative) process and use the Model and the Worksheet until agreement is reached. The agreed on scenario will be retained Egypt AnPro - Model Manual Item – 4: How to make Alternative Scenarios Egypt AnPro-Model / MANUAL / Item 4