T HE E FFECTS OF C LIMATE C HANGE ON A GRICULTURE J AMIE F LETCHER ECON331 M ARCH 29,

T HE E FFECTS OF C LIMATE C HANGE ON A GRICULTURE Adaptation International Trade Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries 2

C ARBON D IOXIDE E MISSIONS Increased Global Temperatures Increased Plant Fertilization 3

CO 2 E NRICHMENT Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001) 4

I NCREASED G LOBAL T EMPERATURES AND C ROP Y IELDS Regional Variation Colder Countries Benefit Crop Yields Decrease in Temperate Areas In Tropics, Agricultural Output Will Decrease 5

A DAPTATION Adaptation can mitigate the effects of climate change Adaptation Capacity is Lower in Developing Countries 6

A DAPTATION Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001)7

I NTERNATIONAL T RADE Bathtub Model for International Agricultural Markets 8

SWOPSIM M ODEL 9 A Partial Equilibrium Model That Is Used by Riley and Hohmann to Test The Sensitivity of Agriculture to Yield Losses in Major Grain Producing Regions

E FFECTS OF I NTERNATIONAL T RADE Interregional adjustments in production and consumption Global Market Changes (Prices) Impact of Developing Countries 10

C ONCLUSION Adaptation International Trade Impact on Developing vs. Industrial Countries 11

S OURCES William R. Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country (2007) John Reilly and Neil Hohmann, “Climate Change and Agriculture The Role of International Trade” (1993) Richard S.J. Tol, “Estimates of the Damage Cost of Climate Change” (2001) 12