Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Leslie W. Kennedy Joel M. Caplan Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ Presentation to UCL Department of Security And Crime Science October 4, 2011

It’s all about risk Slide 2 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

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Operationationalizing risk Slide 4 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

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Data ► Violent crimes (aggravated assaults, homicides, robbery, shootings, and weapon possession) ► Provided by the NJ State Police through the Regional Operations Intelligence Center. ► 52 violent crime incidents from April to August 2007 ► 57 violent crime incidents from April to August Slide 6 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Hotspot Mapping ► Hotspots: areas with high concentrations of crime. ► Conventional hotspot mapping: uses locations of past events to anticipate locations of future similar events. Slide 7 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Hotspot Mapping ► Over +2 Standard Deviations is statistically the top 5% Slide 8 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Hotspot Mapping Slide 9 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | (Pearson Chi-Squared value=13.50; df=1; p<0.01)

Near Repeat Analysis ► If a crime occurs at a location, the chances of a future crime occurring nearby increases ► Many near repeat incidents over time could result in hotspots Slide 10 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Near Repeat Analysis ► April-Aug 2007 Violent Crimes:  500% greater chance of victimization at the same place up to 7 days after an initial incident  153% greater chance of near repeat occurring within 14 days at feet from initial incident 1 block ~ 370ft Slide 11 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | NR Calculator:

Near Repeat Analysis ► Use knowledge of near repeat phenomenon to intervene at certain places ► Like hotspot mapping, it relies on the occurrence of crime before predicting future behavior Slide 12 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Risk Terrain Modeling ► Risk Factors  Gang members  Bus stops  Schools  Public housing  Bars, clubs, fast food restaurants, and liquor stores Slide 13 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Risk Terrain Modeling Slide 14 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Risk Terrain Modeling ► 38% of all violent crimes in 2008 happened at places with risk values of 3 or more  10% of the area of Irvington ► Hotspot locations did not move from year to year because environments stayed criminogenic Slide 15 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Joint Operational Utility ► Capitalize on unique strengths of each method Slide 16 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Joint Operational Utility Slide 17 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | ► Violent crimes occur at places with higher environmental risks  Especially if violent crimes already occurred there

Joint Operational Utility Slide 18 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Joint Operational Utility Summary: ► Violent crimes occur at places with high environmental risks ► If environmental risks aren’t mitigated, then crimes will continue at same places, creating hotspots ► Unpreventable instigator crimes will attract near repeats at places of higher environmental risk Slide 19 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Slide 20 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Joint Operational Utility

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Use the “Near Repeat Opportunities” tool in the RTM Toolset Slide 22 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Joint Operational Utility

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 23 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 24 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

3-Part Integration for Crime Analysis and Forecasting Slide 25 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved |

Slide 26 | © 2011 | All Rights Reserved | Tactical Deployment Decisions: From Product A Respond immediately to crime hotspots and high-risk places From Product B Limit length of time for targeted deployments From Product C Prioritize target areas

Hotspot Mapping, Near Repeat Analysis, and Risk Terrain Modeling Joint Operational Utility Leslie W. Kennedy Joel M. Caplan Eric L. Piza Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey School of Criminal Justice Center for Law & Justice 123 Washington Street Newark, NJ