U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook November 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

Macroeconomic and Sector-level Performance

U.S. Real GDP Growth

World Real GDP Growth

CBO Federal Budget Surplus

U.S. Net Farm Income

Prices Received Index

Prospects for Cotton Production

Southeast3,600 3, Mid-South 4,595 3, Southwest6,311 6, West ALL UPLAND 15,499 14, ALL ELS ALL COTTON15,769 14, U.S. Cotton Plantings (Aug Crop Production) % Actual Estimated Change Actual Estimated Change Thousand Acres

U.S. Cotton Planted Area

Southeast Mid-South Southwest West1,266 1,336 1,196 ALL UPLAND ALL ELS1,254 1,263 1,095 ALL COTTON U.S. Cotton Crop Yield Estimates Yr. Actual Estimated Average Actual Estimated Average Lb. per Harvested Acre

U.S. Cotton Yield per Harvested Acre

U.S. Cotton Abandonment

U.S. Cotton Production

World Cotton Harvested Area

World Cotton Production

Outlook for Mill Use

Real Exchange Rate Indices Source: Federal Reserve Board

U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports

U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports by Country of Origin

U.S. Cotton Textile & Apparel Exports

Monthly Net Imports of Cotton Textiles

Net Domestic Cotton Consumption

Monthly Net Domestic Consumption of Cotton

Monthly Cotton Mill Use

Average Daily Mill Use (Bales)

U.S. Cotton Mill Use

World Cotton Mill Use

U.S. Export Potential

U.S. Cotton Exports

Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton 1990 County(000 Bales) Japan1,538 China1,347 Korea1,185 Indonesia 552 Italy 424 Taiwan County(000 Bales) Japan1,538 China1,347 Korea1,185 Indonesia 552 Italy 424 Taiwan YTD Country(000 Bales) Mexico1,756 Indonesia 458 Canada 420 China 341 Korea 280 Japan 273

Step 2 Payment Rate

Foreign Mill Consumption less Production

Chinese Net Trade

India and Pakistan Net Trade

Stocks, Prices, Returns

Cotton Ending Stocks

Cotton Prices

Cotton Price and LDP

December Cotton Futures

Summary of the Supply & Demand Situation

U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Mill Use Exports Total Offtake Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio39.7%36.8% Million Bales Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Mill Use Exports Total Offtake Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio39.7%36.8% 2001/022001/022002/03(p)2002/03(p)

World Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks Production Total Supply Mill Use Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio50.5%41.6% Million Bales Beginning Stocks Production Total Supply Mill Use Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio50.5%41.6% 2001/022001/022002/032002/03

Prices of Other Commodities

September Corn Futures

November Soybean Futures

Merchants Ginners Crushers Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers