Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Outlook Briefing for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Asheville, NC Mike Burdette Petroleum Division,

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Presentation transcript:

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Outlook Briefing for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Asheville, NC Mike Burdette Petroleum Division, Energy Information Administration August 11, 2003

EIA’s Preliminary Winter Fuels Outlook World Oil Markets U.S. Heating Oil U.S. Propane

WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Annual World Oil Demand Growth Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Quarterly World Oil Demand Growth From Previous Year Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August

U.S. Petroleum Demand Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied? History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied? History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

OECD Commercial Crude Oil Inventories Expected to Recover to Normal Range Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003 End of Month Inventories

When Will U.S. Crude Inventories Recover? Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003 History Million Barrels

Crude Oil Outlook Conclusions U.S. and global oil demand continues to recover Iraqi and non-OPEC production is expected to rise OPEC intends to adjust as necessary to maintain prices near current levels OECD inventories should return to low end of normal range by year’s end WTI prices expected to ease below $30 by year- end, possibly as low as $26 by end of 2004

Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil Spot West Texas Intermediate East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel East Coast Residential Heating Oil

Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil Spot West Texas Intermediate East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel East Coast Residential Heating Oil ?

East Coast Distillate Stocks Starting out Low Source: Energy Information Administration Normal Range

Distillate Demand Last Year Was Higher Than Forecast Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002, August 2003.

Last Winter’s Weather Was Close to Average Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002.

Fuel Oil Demand Influenced by Natural Gas Prices Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Distillate Demand Expected to be Similar to Last Winter’s Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Distillate Production Likely Higher Than Last Winter Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Distillate Imports Were Stronger Last Winter Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2003.

Distillate Supply/Demand Balance Reflected in Spreads Spot Heating Oil Price WTI Price

Distillate Stocks Expected to Remain Low Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August Actual Forecast

Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August Residential Heating Oil Wholesale Distillate Crude Oil (WTI)

Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Heating Oil (Northeast) Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) Average Price$1.37$1.10$1.31$1.29 Expenditures$999$643$931$893

Heating Oil Outlook Conclusion Distillate stocks are likely to be low going into the winter Prices likely to average similar or less than last winter, given current crude oil price forecast Residential customers’ fuel requirements should be similar to last winter, if weather is normal Slightly lower prices and volumes could yield savings compared to last year

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil and Natural Gas

Total U.S. Propane Production Lower Than Recent Years Source: Energy Information Administration 4-Week Average

Propane Production by Source Source: Energy Information Administration Tropical StormsRefinery Outages &Turnarounds High Natural Gas Prices

Gas Plant Production by PAD District Source: Energy Information Administration

U.S. Propane Imports Source: Energy Information Administration 4-Week Average

U.S. Propane Imports Source: Energy Information Administration Waterborne

U.S. Propane Exports Source: Energy Information Administration Exports increase from U.S. Gulf Coast due to loss of supply from Venezuela.

Propane Demand is Highly Seasonal, But Fresh Supply is Not Source: Energy Information Administration

Propane Stock Build/Draw Source: Energy Information Administration As of Aug. 1

U.S. Propane Stocks Average Range Lower Operational Inventory = 18.5 Million Barrels Actual Forecast Source: Energy Information Administration

PAD District I Stocks (East Coast) Average Range Source: Energy Information Administration Actual

PAD District II Stocks (Midwest) Average Range Source: Energy Information Administration Actual

Average Range Source: Energy Information Administration PAD District III Stocks (Gulf Coast) Actual

Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Propane (Midwest) Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption (gals.) Average Price$1.37$1.11$1.20 Expenditures$1,344$887$1,122$1,082

Propane Outlook Conclusion U.S. inventories likely to remain at low end of historic average range Propane prices should remain stable this winter -- but natural gas prices are the wild card Residential customers’ fuel requirements should be similar to last winter, if weather is normal Slightly lower prices and volumes could yield savings compared to last year

Gasoline Prices Ending Summer on the Upswing