Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES ‐ R and Advanced IR Soundings Jun Li 1, Jinlong Li 1, Jing Zheng 1, Tim Schmit 2, and Hui Liu 3 1 University of Wisconsin-Madison 2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop 08 – 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK

Outline Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation; –MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxy –WRF/DART, WRF/3DVAR Improve high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings; Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements; 2012 plan – value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.

Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Sinlaku Path Sinlaku rapid intensification (9 – 10 September 2008) observed 1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilation

Terra TPW Aqua TPW AMSR-E TPW Terra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.

CTL AMSR-E TPW MODIS TPW Obs

GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies MYD07 GOES-R Alg.

GOES Sounder GOES-R ABI GOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions

GOES Reg GOES Phy

9 GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min 06:00 05:30 06:30 05:55 06:05 n = =9207(E13)+905(W11)

Hourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage 2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z Forecast with Conventional data OBS Forecast with GOES Sounder Hourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z – 12 Z over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).

Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results). Observation Forecast with GOES Sounder Forecast with Conventional

AIRS (10 August 2009) CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage (provided by Dave Tobin – CIMSS/SSEC) 2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings

(K) AIRS 500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike

OBS CTL AIRS-TQ Hurricane at CTL AIRS-TQ CTL: radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQ

AIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations (Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike ) AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 – 00 UTC 10 September 2008).

72-hour ensemble forecasts – Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011) CTL AIRS Obs Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution Control (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data; AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution Control (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data; AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings Irene (2011) track forecasts Irene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts

Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011) (06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011) CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data. AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data. AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings CTL AIRS Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution

AMSR-E TPW ( ) TPW forecast (090718) with GTS TPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS (mm) TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)) No AIRS With AIRS 3. Verify impact – using AMSR-E TWP

Impact of sounding bias correction on TC forecasts Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September) AIRS no BC AIRS with BC

4. Summary and 2012 plans GOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R shows positive impact on HIW forecasts; Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone intensity and track analysis/forecasts; WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results; 2012 plans on HIW studies – Use GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications; – Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders; – Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group; – Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS (including AMSU and ATMS).