Briefing at: Consequence Analysis Workshop October 30, 2012

What is a Risk Assessment? Project Background Work Plan Vessel Traffic Study Results Outreach Efforts Questions?

What is a Risk Assessment? What can go wrong?

What is a Risk Assessment? How likely is it?

What is a Risk Assessment? What are the impacts?

What is a Risk Assessment? Can the risk be reduced or the impact mitigated?

Project Background 1999 Safety of Navigation Forum – Homer 2000 Ports and Waterway Safety Assessment 2006 Sea Bulk Pride Grounding 2006 Cook Inlet Vessel Traffic Study 2007 Navigational Safety Forum – Anchorage 2008 Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills 2009 Aleutian Island Risk Assessment

Project Background 2007 Navigational Forum – Consensus Points Cook Inlet RCAC should move forward with a risk assessment, Engaging in the political process will be necessary to obtain funding, and Public participation and outreach will be critical to the success of the risk assessment.

Project Background National Academy of Sciences Transportation Research Board Special Report 293

Work Plan Limits and Bounds Organization and Management Structure Project Steps/Tasks Timeline Deliverables

Limits and Bounds Substances Oil – Cargo, Crude Oil or Refined Product – Fuel, Bunkers

Limits and Bounds Vessel Types – Containerships – Bulk carriers – Gas carriers – Car carriers – Cruise ships and Ferries – Crude oil tankers – Product tankers – Tank barges and tugs – Cargo barges and tugs – Chemical carriers – Tugs – Offshore Supply Vessels – Mobile Drill Rigs – Government Vessels

Limits and Bounds Accident Types Collisions Allisions Powered Groundings Drift Groundings Foundering Structural Failures Mooring Failures Fires

Limits and Bounds Geographic Region

Organization Management Team – Mike Munger, CIRCAC – Steve Russell, ADEC – LT. Kion Evans, USCG – Burt Lahn, USCG Project Managers – Nuka Research and Planning Group, LLC.

Organization Advisory Panel Fisheries Local Government Mariner, Pilot Mariner, Salvor Mariner, Containerships Mariner, Tug and Barge Mariner, Tank Ship Mariner, General Non-Governmental Org. Resource Manager Subsistence User

Tasks 1.Project Communications 2.Facilitate and Support Manage Team and Advisory Panel 3.Vessel Traffic Study 4.Baseline Accident and Spill Study 5.Consequence Analysis Workshop

Tasks 6.Identify Risk Reduction Options 7.Evaluate Risk Reduction Options 8.Prioritize Risk Reduction Options and Prepare a Final Report

Timeline MilestoneCompletion Form Advisory Panel1 st Year- 3 rd quarter 2011 Draft Vessel Traffic Study1 st Year- 3 rd quarter 2011 Final Vessel Traffic Study2nd Year- 1st quarter 2012 Draft Spill and Casualty Study2 nd Year- 1 st quarter 2012 Final Spill and Casualty Study2 nd Year- 2 nd quarter 2012 Consequence Workshop2 nd Year- 4 rd quarter 2012 Consequence Report2 nd Year- 4 rd quarter 2012 Identify Risk Reduction Options3 nd Year- 1 rd quarter 2013 Rank and Prioritize Risk Reduction Options3 nd Year- 2 th quarter 2013 Draft Final Report3 nd Year- 3 th quarter 2013 Publish Final Report3 nd Year- 4 th quarter 2013

Deliverables Vessel Traffic Study (Completed) Spill and Causality Study (Completed) Consequence Workshop Report (Fall 2012) Risk Reduction Recommendations Final Report

Vessel Traffic Study Objectives 1.Characterize Vessel Traffic Utilizing Cook Inlet in 2010 Base Year (≥ 300 Gross Tons), 2.Predict Vessel Traffic Until 2019

Vessel Traffic Study Findings 480 ship port calls 80% of the calls were made by 15 ships 218 million gallons of persistent oil and 9 million gallons of non-persistent oil were moved on 83 tank ship voyages to or from the Nikiski and Drift River terminals

Vessel Traffic Study Findings 36% of all persistent oil moved was fuel oil on dry cargo ships calling at Anchorage 102 oil barge transits moved 366 million gallons of nonpersistent oil; the greatest amount of oil moved by a single vessel type

Vessel Traffic Study AMHS ferries 23% Horizon Lines container ships 22% TOTE Ro-Ro cargo ships 22% Crude oil tank ships 15.5% Refined product tank ships 4% Bulk carriers 4% Gas carriers 2.5% Cruise ships 3% Fish industry 1%

million gallons of persistent oil were move in 2010

566 million gallons of non-persistent oil was moved in 2010

Spill & Causality Study Objectives Studied Historical Incidents and Vessel Traffic to Define: 1.Baseline ( ) and; 2.Projected ( ) annual spill rate Scenario Development

Spill Rates Vessel Types – Tank Ships – Tank Barges – Non-Tank/Non-workboat vessels (Cargo, Cruise ship) Highest forecasted spill rate of 1.3 per year – Workboats (OSV, Towboat/Tugboat) Highest baseline spill rate of 0.96 per year – Sum of the four vessel types is 3.9 spills per year

Scenarios Defined for 2,112 unique combinations of vessel types and spill factor subcategories. Majority of scenarios have low to very low relative risk level. Tank ships have lowest baseline spill rate, but have the most risk from an oil spill.

Scenarios for Workshop Total of 6 scenarios – 2 Upper Cook Inlet: Knik Shoal & Port of Anchorage – 2 Mid Cook Inlet: Drift River & Nikiski – 2 Lower Cook Inlet: Barren Islands & Port of Homer

Outreach Efforts Contacts Advisory Panel Solicitation Public Meetings Website

Questions?