THE PLANET99 MODEL DEMAND AND REVENUE FORECASTING TOOL FOR RAIL OPERATORS 8th EUROPEAN EMME/2 USERS CONFERENCE Jeremy Douch GIBB Transport Planning May 1999

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES PLANET Consultancy Services Demand and revenue forecasting services provided by GIBB Transport Planning.

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES What is PLANET99 ? What is PLANET99 ? Network Development. Network Development. PLANET99 Demand. PLANET99 Demand. Validation of PLANET99. Validation of PLANET99. Assignment Process. Assignment Process. Financial and Economic Appraisal. Financial and Economic Appraisal. Flexibility of PLANET99. Flexibility of PLANET99. What is PLANET99 ? What is PLANET99 ? Network Development. Network Development. PLANET99 Demand. PLANET99 Demand. Validation of PLANET99. Validation of PLANET99. Assignment Process. Assignment Process. Financial and Economic Appraisal. Financial and Economic Appraisal. Flexibility of PLANET99. Flexibility of PLANET99. OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Demand and revenue forecasting tool for rail industry. Multi-modal EMME/2 model. All rail services in the South East of England. Distribution Modal Split. Crowding sub-model. Demand and revenue forecasting tool for rail industry. Multi-modal EMME/2 model. All rail services in the South East of England. Distribution Modal Split. Crowding sub-model. WHAT IS PLANET99 ?

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Morning peak weekday model ( ). Incorporates all train services in London and South East of England passenger demand. DMS model enhancements. Enhancement of the crowding sub-model. Morning peak weekday model ( ). Incorporates all train services in London and South East of England passenger demand. DMS model enhancements. Enhancement of the crowding sub-model. DEVELOPMENT OF PLANET99

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Winter 1997/98 rail timetable, AM peak. Stopping patterns, timetabling, profit centre. Train capacities extracted from 1997 census. Each service associated with a profit centre. Output by TOC, profit centre or transit line readily extracted. Review and update of underground transit lines. Winter 1997/98 rail timetable, AM peak. Stopping patterns, timetabling, profit centre. Train capacities extracted from 1997 census. Each service associated with a profit centre. Output by TOC, profit centre or transit line readily extracted. Review and update of underground transit lines. PLANET99 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES PLANET99 RAIL NETWORK

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES PLANET99 UNDERGROUND, DLR AND CROYDON TRAMLINK NETWORKS

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Chiltern Railways. Connex South Eastern. Connex South Central. Great Eastern Railway. LTS Rail. Silverlink Train Services. South West Trains. Thameslink. Thames Trains. West Anglia Great Northern Railway. Chiltern Railways. Connex South Eastern. Connex South Central. Great Eastern Railway. LTS Rail. Silverlink Train Services. South West Trains. Thameslink. Thames Trains. West Anglia Great Northern Railway. Anglia Railways. Gatwick Express. Great North Eastern Railway. Great Western Trains. Midland Mainline. Virgin Trains. Anglia Railways. Gatwick Express. Great North Eastern Railway. Great Western Trains. Midland Mainline. Virgin Trains. LIST OF TOCs MODELLED IN PLANET99

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Morning peak demand ( ). October 1997 demand using CAPRI flow downloads by profit centre to derive station origin and destination flows. Adjustments made to season tickets using CAPRI and PDFH factors to realise average weekday demands. PLANET99 distribution based on census data. Underground component of matrix remains unchanged. Morning peak demand ( ). October 1997 demand using CAPRI flow downloads by profit centre to derive station origin and destination flows. Adjustments made to season tickets using CAPRI and PDFH factors to realise average weekday demands. PLANET99 distribution based on census data. Underground component of matrix remains unchanged. PLANET99 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES CROWDING SUB-MODEL Build paths and assign proportion of trip matrix. Capacity and demand profiles to model the supply and demand relationships. Derive measure of crowding based on relationship of train capacity (seated and standing) and demand. Adjust travel times and assign further proportion of trip matrix. Build paths and assign proportion of trip matrix. Capacity and demand profiles to model the supply and demand relationships. Derive measure of crowding based on relationship of train capacity (seated and standing) and demand. Adjust travel times and assign further proportion of trip matrix. Impact of train and underground over-crowding on passenger route choice:

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT MODEL 156 DMS zones, covering local authority boundaries or groups of authorities containing socio economic data. DMS model considers the change in trip origin, destination or mode resulting from changes in service pattern using model skims. 156 DMS zones, covering local authority boundaries or groups of authorities containing socio economic data. DMS model considers the change in trip origin, destination or mode resulting from changes in service pattern using model skims.

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES DISTRIBUTION MODAL SPLIT MODEL cont... Planning data to derive: Potential home movers. Potential work changers. Potential home movers & work changers. Potential non movers or changers. Potential home movers. Potential work changers. Potential home movers & work changers. Potential non movers or changers. Zones that have a reduction in generalised cost should benefit. Zones that have an increase in generalised cost should dis-benefit. Zones that have a reduction in generalised cost should benefit. Zones that have an increase in generalised cost should dis-benefit.

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES PLANET99 MODEL STRUCTURE PLANET NETWORK MODEL DMS MODEL MODE SPLIT AND REDISTRIBUTION EFFECTS PRODUCE POST DMS MATRIX ASSIGNMENT OF POST DMS MATRIX DEMANDSUPPLY ASSIGNMENT PROCESS 1239 ZONES 156 ZONES 1239 ZONES CALCULATE GENERALISED COST FOR EACH ORIGIN AND DESTINATION BY RAIL

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC APPRAISAL Environment. Safety. Economy. Accessibility. Integration. Environment. Safety. Economy. Accessibility. Integration. Government appraisal guidance - “A New Deal for Transport” 1998 Government appraisal guidance - “A New Deal for Transport” 1998

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES ECONOMY Journey time. Train frequency. Crowding. Journey time. Train frequency. Crowding. Benefits to rail and road users requires consideration of: Reduction in number of interchanges. Reduction in boarding penalty. Reduction in number of interchanges. Reduction in boarding penalty. “Reduction of barriers” Journey reliability. Station facilities. Rolling stock quality. Journey reliability. Station facilities. Rolling stock quality. ACCESSIBILITY

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Transit volumes. Boardings and alightings. Capacities. Frequencies. User defined input e.g. crowding, wait times etc. Comparison of scenarios for all of the above. Transit volumes. Boardings and alightings. Capacities. Frequencies. User defined input e.g. crowding, wait times etc. Comparison of scenarios for all of the above. Histograms e.g. Distribution of travel times. Scattergrams. Regression analysis. Histograms e.g. Distribution of travel times. Scattergrams. Regression analysis. Network based graphical output: Network based graphical output: Matrix based graphical output: Matrix based graphical output: GRAPHICAL DISPLAY CAPABILITIES Mapping journey time changes. Accessibility. Monetary trip values. Mapping journey time changes. Accessibility. Monetary trip values. GIS output:

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Development of new rail corridor. First through London services. Connects commuter towns north and south of London with central London. High frequency, fast services. Development of new rail corridor. First through London services. Connects commuter towns north and south of London with central London. High frequency, fast services. THAMESLINK 2000 SCHEME

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES THAMESLINK 2000 SCHEME

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Perceived Journey Time Savings (minutes)

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Boarding Time Savings (minutes)

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Monetary Savings ( £s )

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Thameslink 2000 Illustrative Test - Localised Crowding Relief

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES FLEXIBILITY OF PLANET99 Automated input of demand. Automated input of transit lines. Enhanced presentation of economic and financial effects of scheme through interface with GIS. Automated input of demand. Automated input of transit lines. Enhanced presentation of economic and financial effects of scheme through interface with GIS.

PLANET99 CONSULTANCY SERVICES Please contact: Jeremy Douch, GIBB Transport Planning, GIBB Ltd, GIBB House, London Road, Reading, RG6 1BL UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Please contact: Jeremy Douch, GIBB Transport Planning, GIBB Ltd, GIBB House, London Road, Reading, RG6 1BL UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON PLANET99