IOC Expert Missions May-August, 2005 UNESCO IOC TSUNAMI PROGRAMME

2 TSUNAMI THREATS LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI: Generated nearby Strikes shore quickly (w/i minutes) => NO TIME for official evacuation Damage only to limited area  Education, Awareness, Immediate Response DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI: Generated far away Strikes shore later (2+ hours) => TIME for official evacuation Widespread Damage  Tsunami Warning Center July 12, 1993,Japan Sea December 26, 2004, Sumatra

POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATIONS: 1.RECEIVE TSUNAMI WARNING MESSAGE FROM REGIONAL TWC or OTHER NATION a. CONTRIBUTE DATA TO REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORKS (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL) a. CONTRIBUTE DATA TO REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORKS (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL) MAINTAIN LOCAL STATIONS MAINTAIN LOCAL STATIONS b. DO NOT HOST ANY STATIONS b. DO NOT HOST ANY STATIONS 2.MONITOR SEISMICITY REGIONALLY, MONITOR SEA LEVELS REGIONALLY. LOCATE AND EVALUATE EARTHQUAKES EVALUATE TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL ISSUE TSUNAMI WARNINGS Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance

COMPONENT TECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 2. WARNING Measurement Early Detection GUIDANCE Telecomm Real-Time Data Numerical Wave Forecast Simulation Warning Dissem “to the last km” Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance Local tsunamis 15 min 3 4 Hrs to Hawaii 60 min 15 Tele-tsunamis

What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ? The warning center must provide: 1) Information on the earthquake - location and magnitude 2) Information on tsunami - arrival time at coastal location - wave height at coastal location 3) Seriousness of the warning - Evaluation of the danger - Prediction of human (injuries, casualties, rescues) and environmental/structural impact (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis) Dec 26, 2004, Sri Lanka

HAZARD MITIGATION Warning System alerts all persons on every vulnerable coast of imminent danger Robust, extensive communications Response must be: Rapid (as soon as possible) Accurate (minimize false warning) Reliable (continuous operation) Effective (to save lives) Ocean-wide: PTWC w/i 30 min Regional USA WC/ATWC, Japan NWPTIC, and France CPPT, Chile SHOA National: Russia, Peru w/i min Local: Japan, USA, Chile w/i 5 min

VERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVALVERY RAPID EARTHQUAKE EVAL VERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVALVERY RAPID SEA LEVEL EVAL VERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONSVERY RELIABLE COMMUNICATIONS Multi-national, Global Nets Real-time transmission (Radio, microwave, landline/satellite phone, satellite, Internet)  ALL REQUIRED FOR WARNING THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS

Improving Warning Guidance Real-time, deep ocean, tsunami detection

SIMPLE COLOR CODED LEVELS OF TSUNAMI WARNING YELLOW: Delay > 9 hours and Mm >= 7.0 Warning at the Lab. Info to Civil Defense, High-Authorities ORANGE: Delay hours and Mm >= 8.0 Severe danger of tsunami not yet confirmed. Population is not yet informed. RED: Delay < 3 hours or Mm >= 9.0 Imminent danger (< 3 hours), or very severe danger of tsunami. General warning for evacuation of population along coast, boats in harbor, airport. (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)

Communication & Transmission of Tsunami Warning to Localities & Civil Defense Authorities Signboard Tsunami TSUNAMI WARNING Central Government TV / Radio Station TSUNAMI WARNING Radio TV （ Telops, Warning maps ） TSUNAMI WARNING Local government Cabinet Office Japan

Alert & Warning  Getting warning to responders  Getting warning to public  Use table top exercises to identify problems and for training  Conduct drills in the community  Test the notification systems

Keys to System Effectiveness: People drive All Hazards Response Warning System Design: Feedback Loop – is it working – if not, why? Scientist – Public interaction Response System should be: Robust, Rapid Well-organized Appropriate for country Community Issues: Suffer main impact Spec issues-women, poverty Each community unique They are the first responders Empowerment, risk tolerance Warning Center: Science, Technology, Prediction Emergency Operations Center: Public Safety Advisory Lives saved, Damage less Response Decision Point OFDA, USA

Sustainable communications must serve remote communities’ information needs, - Layered - from ground up and top down; - From the local out to the regional; - From the central outward - hub and spoke system >> Multiple solutions must be available … Every Economy/Community has different requirements and different challenges. There is no single solution, but all solutions must work together – RANET Project: Satellite broadcast of environmental data

Initial warnings are based solely on seismic data (false warnings)Initial warnings are based solely on seismic data (false warnings) Too sparse sea level data (wait too long)Too sparse sea level data (wait too long) Teletsunami forecasting only beginning (warning accuracy poor)Teletsunami forecasting only beginning (warning accuracy poor) Difficult to warn and educate for local tsunami. (no warning where biggest impact)Difficult to warn and educate for local tsunami. (no warning where biggest impact) Miss landslide-generated tsunamis (underwarn)Miss landslide-generated tsunamis (underwarn) TSUNAMI WARNING LIMITATIONS BALANCE # FALSE WARNINGS & MISSED EVTS False Warnings will occur – Prepare, Educate Public, Media, Emergency Mgrs 1994 Hawaii false warning cost USD $75M

AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WILL SAVE LIVES - Requirements 1. Warning – local (educate), distant (monitoring center) 2. Dissemination - Recognized National Authority receives Warning, and Recognized National Authority receives Warning, and immediately evaluates to issue Public Advisory immediately evaluates to issue Public Advisory Communities receive Public Advisory, and Communities receive Public Advisory, and immediately takes public safety action (evacuate) immediately takes public safety action (evacuate) For an appropriate response, For an appropriate response, - government must understand phenomena, and limitations of impact prediction, and limitations of impact prediction, - have already practiced response plan, - have already educated and prepared public, - have already minimized impact through pre-disaster mitigation pre-disaster mitigation - during - afterward, be prepared to explain to highest government leaders and public why decisions made government leaders and public why decisions made

IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience): 1. WARNING CENTER provides warning guidance including Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings 2.NDMO disseminates public message, communicates hazard and risk, provides preparedness guidance, works to ensure effective sustainable system  BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER 3.EWS SUSTAINABLE – ALL-HAZARDS APPROACH 4.REGIONAL COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp for regional and distant tsunamis. 28 March 2005: System worked and was exercised, but FALSE WARNINGS must be minimized  Credibility of warning center  Economic Impact – Hawaii, US $75 million in 1994