Large scale irrigated agriculture – A suitable case for treatment Bruce Lankford Unlocking Value from Public Large Scale Irrigation Systems (LSIS): IWMI Sri Lanka 7-10 April 2015.

Large-scale irrigation – seeing like a donor/investor Is the case for revitalising large-scale irrigated agriculture persuasive? If facing a renewed interest in large-scale irrigation, what new terms, ideas and metrics do we need? How do we capture the imagination and shape the agenda of: Politicians/public regarding ‘global risks’ Fellow scientists working on food security Colleagues working on env flows, hydropower, nexus Govt staff, farmers allied to LSIS status quo Private sector and other potential partners

LSIS; Risks of seeing like a donor/investor: What new lens and perspective? Revisitation of irrigation as a solution without risks using donor/aid cycle WB/donor irrigation rehabilitation programmes and in SSA examples include Malawi – new green revolution “Awaking the Sleeping Giant report” of World Bank – the potential of irrigation Kenya also in thrall to unalloyed potential of irrigation.

And how to communicate to food security specialists… Common narratives purport that irrigation is ‘only’ a technical input to crop production (like seeds or agrochemicals) or a component part of rural infrastructure (like roads or electrification). A typical example is given by Godfray et al (2010) in referring to irrigation alongside other inputs such as “fertilizer, machinery, crop-protection products, and soil-conservation measures” (page 813, also page 815). Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson S., Thomas, S.M., Toulmin, C Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science, 327(5967),

to food security specialists… Cont… IARU Sustainability Copenhagen Conference 2014 ‘Webcast 'changing the way we think‘. Find Nina Fedoroff (Evan Pugh Professor of Biology, Willaman Professor of Life Science) On global food security; “Saline lagoon food production; hydroponics; GM crops etc”. Irrigation and LSIS not referred to.

Making the case for large-scale irrigation Multiple risks / wins Global scale connections & contributions Basin scale connections & contributions Energy, food, fibre, water, environment, urban, economy, jobs, value chains

Region Total irrigated area, ha Proportion of irrigation under LSIS Area LSIS, ha S Asia and SE Asia205,669,00044%90,355,700 Central Asia11,465,40090%10,365,400 Latin America18,952,00036%6,783,650 Sub-Saharan Africa4,216,00017%731,200 Mid. East /N Africa14,652,00046%6,805,820 All regions [A]254,954,40045%115,041,800 Remaining regions and global total and proportions Approx diff. (B-A)*65,000, %15,000,000 Total global [B)*320,000,0040%130,000,000 Areal statistics of LSIS : 1st approximation from global review

Large-scale irrigation in transitional and developing countries Reviewed on-line documents for national statistics re LSIS 115 million ha in developing/trans econs 45% of their area is LSIS 130 million ha global inc Aus, Europe (40% of global area is LSIS) Transitional/developing economies = associated with irrigation bureaucracies Associated with key field carbohydrate crops e.g. rice & agro-industrial crops with a pronounced value chain (cotton, oilseeds, sugarcane)

Global connections; food production:- calorie batteries With moderately higher yields, LSIS can help meet global food concerns. Every extra tonne of rice on 50% of the 115 million ha under LSIS generates about 3.5 times the daily calorie need (at 2500 cal/day) of 7 billion people.

Global connections; water security and ecosystem services In semi-arid/arid basins, LSIS account for 70 to 80% of depletion of water. Over an irrigating season of 180 days, 115 M ha depletion of 1,325 km 3 of water or about 40 Hoover Dams (35 km 3 capacity). {1150 mm over either one extended or two individual irrigating seasons Depletion depends on many factors}. If 180 days, and 1400 mm withdrawal, gatekeepers transfer and redirect on average about 10 km 3 water per day or about seven x average daily water flow of the Mississippi. Direct and indirect various connections to ecosystem services, cities & large towns

Global connections; income, finance and livelihoods Assuming a single revenue of $2500/ha, the total turnover provided by 115 million ha of LSIS can be calculated to be 288 billion US dollars. LSIS would be 7 th ranked by revenue (above Volkswagen, Samsung and Toyota but below PetroChina and BP (Forbes Global 2000 for May 2014). The turnover of 150 to 250 million dollars for a single large irrigation system of 100,000 hectares is about twice the size of a SME, defined by EC

Global connections – mitigating carbon One hectare of gravity-fed canal irrigation offers zero-energy distribution excluding LCA materials Pumped groundwater, drip and sprinkler ‘cost’ about 1.5, 2.0 and 4.5 tonnes of CO2 per hectare respectively, depending on factors. A conversion of 10% of the global area under LSIS to 60:20:20 groundwater/ drip/ sprinkler is equivalent to 4% of UK CO2 emissions. IWMI calculates that groundwater pumping already costs India 4% of its emissions.

Basin connections; Energy, environmental and urban/industrial Abstraction/depletion water from instream- environmental flows Large-scale systems are connected to growing cities by influencing water fluxes/ pathways, supplying food/fibre and counterbalancing urban migration. Capping depletion and improving the timing of flows cascading through basins Chennai and Metro Water

Concluding questions Is the case for revitalising LSIS persuasive? From 2015 to 2025, more so? Who do we have to persuade? How? What stories and metrics shall we use? Who gains from business-as-usual? RICE SECURITY NOW! Revitalise LSIS!! Save our irrigation