The Poverty Reduction Success of Public Transfers For Working Age Immigrants and Refugees In the United States Christopher R. Bollinger Paul Hagstrom University.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Impressionistic Realism European Measures of Income, Poverty and Social Exclusion David S. Johnson U.S. Census Bureau November 4, 2009.

Advertisements

Ajay Chaudry, The Urban Institute The Demographics of Children in Immigrant Families The Demographics of Children in Immigrant Families “Immigrant Children:

PAI786: Urban Policy Class 16: Welfare Programs and Principles of Welfare Policy.

1 U.S. Poverty Trends: why has the official U.S. poverty rate been stuck at 11-16% since 1971 ? World Poverty and Economic Development ECON 3240 Fordham.

NYC’s Alternative Poverty Measure: The Need to Identify Unauthorized Immigrants Vicky Virgin Center for Migration Studies September 29, 2014.

1 VITA at Colgate: The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) VITA Presentation Nicole Simpson January 2013.

What Did the 1990s Welfare Reform Accomplish? Rebecca M. Blank December 2003 (A topic closely related to Gene Smolensky’s past research and concerns)

Overview of Income Redistribution Programs

Antipoverty Effectiveness of Social Insurance Programs Today’s Reading Schiller Ch. 13-Social Insurance Programs DeParle, Ch. 18: A Shot at the American.

19. Income Distribution and Poverty Income Inequality in the U.S. Poverty in the U.S. Income Inequality in the U.S. Poverty in the U.S.

Overview of Federal and State Welfare Programs April 24, 2008.

The Economic, Social, Civic and Fiscal Consequences of Dropping Out of High School: Findings for Connecticut Adults in the 21 st Century Andrew Sum Center.

Chapter 12 Poverty, Welfare, and Women Poverty in the U.S. Welfare  programs  incentives  reform EITC Poverty in the U.S. Welfare  programs  incentives.

Poverty: Facts, Causes and Consequences Hilary Hoynes University of California, Davis California Symposium on Poverty October 2009.

Urban Men In Poverty: Problems and Solutions Geoffrey L. Wallace La Follette School of Public Affairs Institute for Research on Poverty University of Wisconsin.

Welfare Programs Today’s readings: Schiller Ch 13, Welfare Programs House Ways and Means Committee 2004 Green Book,

Regarding the income distribution in the United States, we have: 0 of Too much inequality 2. Just the right amount of inequality 3. Not enough inequality.

Immigrant Legalization: Assessing the Labor Market Effects Magnus Lofstrom Laura Hill, Joseph Hayes.

Poverty, Welfare, and Women Chapter 12. Measuring Poverty Absolute Measure of Poverty –People living below a certain threshold Relative Income Poverty.

1 Impact of Poverty Programs. Measuring the Impact of Poverty Programs One key question is how effective have all of our poverty programs been at alleviating.

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org EITC was the single biggest factor in boosting employment among single mothers 1.

Income Inequality and Poverty. Income Mobility Income mobility –The ability to move up and down the economic ladder over time Higher levels of income.

The social safety net for children and families Jane Waldfogel.

Geographic Inequality in Social Provision and Redistribution Sarah K. Bruch - University of Iowa INEQUALITY ACROSS THE US STATES Inequality Workshop The.

Tax Subsidies for Out-of-Pocket Healthcare Costs Jessica Vistnes Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality William Jack Georgetown University Arik Levinson.

Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2005 Facts About Income Inequality The Lorenz Curve Causes of Income Inequality Trends in Income Inequality Equality.

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. CHAPTER 13 EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR.

1 Chapter 12 Income Distribution, Poverty, and Discrimination Key Concepts Summary Practice Quiz Internet Exercises ©2002 South-Western College Publishing.

Economic Well-Being of the Elderly Immigrant Population George J. Borjas Harvard University August 2009.

1 Chapter 12 Income Distribution, Poverty, and Discrimination Key Concepts Summary Practice Quiz Internet Exercises ©2002 South-Western College Publishing.

Impact of Immigration on the Distribution of Well-Being by Gary Burtless The Brookings Institution August 11, 2009 Social Security Administration and Retirement.

Inequality and social policy Growing Inequality since ‘74.

Do Children of Immigrant Parents Assimilate into Public Health Insurance? A Dynamic Analysis by Julie Hudson Yuriy Pylypchuk August 10, 2009.

Pensioners’ Employment and Their Families Well-being in Russia Oxana Sinyavskaya, Independent Institute for Social Policy Family in the Stream of Changes:

The Labor Supply of Undocumented Immigrants: Towards an Assessment of the Impact of Status Regularization George J. Borjas Harvard University August 6,

Welfare and Welfare Reform. AFDC (Aid for Families with Dependant Children) Cash Welfare 87% of funds generally went to those who would be poor Targeted.

Welfare and Welfare Reform. AFDC (Aid for Families with Dependant Children) Cash Welfare 87% of funds generally went to those who would be poor Targeted.

Welfare Dynamics under Time Limits Jeffrey Grogger Charles Michalopoulos Evrim Aydin-Saher.

Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Facts About Income Inequality The Lorenz Curve Causes of Income Inequality Trends in Income Inequality Equality.

Chapter 3 section 4 Providing a Safety Net Income and Poverty In a Market economy, income depends primarily on earnings, which depend on the value of each.

The Comprehensive Wealth of Immigrants and Natives David Love and Lucie Schmidt Williams College Retirement Research Consortium Annual Meeting August 6,

Has Public Health Insurance for Older Children Reduced Disparities in Access to Care and Health Outcomes? Janet Currie, Sandra Decker, and Wanchuan Lin.

Trends in Inequality Lecture 3 September 12, 2012.

Rural Poverty and the Cost of Living: Implications of Current Discussions on Changing How We Measure Poverty Dean Jolliffe Economic Research Service, USDA.

Providing a Safety Net. The Poverty Problem The wealth has spread unevenly throughout society as the free market has generated wealth. Some people are.

Antipoverty Effectiveness of Social Insurance Programs Today’s Reading Schiller Ch. 13-Social Insurance Programs DeParle, Ch. 18: A Shot at the American.

State & Federal Approaches to Health Reform: What works for the working poor? June 9, 2008 Ellen Meara Meredith Rosenthal Anna Sinaiko Katherine Baicker.

Poverty Janava M. Benton. overview The official poverty data overstates the poverty problem More accurate measures show that we are closer to eliminating.

Chapter 16. Poverty in America: The Nature of the Problem The poor: who and how many? The poverty line Children; single-parent families headed by females.

Chapter 3 Section 4.

The Role of Advertising in the Growth of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance (SNAP) Caseload The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily.

Measuring Economic Growth. Write and answer the following questions on a separate piece of paper. 1.Define GDP.p320 2.What items are not included in calculating.

Providing a Safety Net. Why Households Differ One of the main reasons why household income differs is because the number of household members who work.

PPA786: Urban Policy Class 16: Welfare Programs and Principles of Welfare Policy.

Chapter 8 Finances and Economics. Table 8.1 Older Population’s Average Annual Income © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.

Policy Uses of Federal Statistics Rebecca M. Blank Department of Commerce.

Why do we have programs like food stamps and Medicaid? Are they necessary? Why or why not? Call to Order.

6. Ordered Choice Models. Ordered Choices Ordered Discrete Outcomes E.g.: Taste test, credit rating, course grade, preference scale Underlying random.

Welfare and Education Policy: Providing for Personal Security and Need Chapter 16.

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS© Thomson South-Western 3.4Providing a Safety Net  Determine why incomes differ across households, and identify the main source.

Why does the richest country have poverty?

INEQUALITY ACROSS THE US STATES

What groups of Americans are affected by poverty?

Overview of Income Redistribution Programs

21 C H A P T E R INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY.

Public Goods and Public Policy Promoting Competition Income Inequality

Haksoon Ahn, PhD Associate Professor

Haksoon Ahn, PhD Associate Professor

EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR

Effectiveness of Minimum Income Schemes in the reduction of poverty

Presentation transcript:

The Poverty Reduction Success of Public Transfers For Working Age Immigrants and Refugees In the United States Christopher R. Bollinger Paul Hagstrom University of Kentucky Hamilton College We thank Lindsay Allen for excellent research assistance. Author Bollinger thanks the University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research for supporting this project.

Refugees/Immigrants/PRWORA Prior to PRWORA, all legal permanent residents were eligible for Food Stamp, AFDC, Medicaid and SSI. PRWORA Denied these program benefits to immigrants in general. Refugees, however, are eligible for the first 5 years they are in the US (and then eligible if they are citizens).

Previous Research Program declines among immigrants and refugees (Fix and Passell, 2002; Lofstrom and Bean, 2003; Borjas, 2002; Haider,2004; Bollinger and Hagstrom, 2006) Earnings and Assimilation (Borjas, 1987, 1990, 1994; Kosoudji, 1989; Aguilar and Gustafsson, 1991; Reitz, 1998; Galster et al 1999; Card et al. 2000; Butcher and DiNardo, 2002; Longva and Raaum, 2002) Poverty Rates (Lee, 1994; Ley and Smith, 1997; Clark 1998) Previous research often ignored refugees or only used crude measures (country of origin). Exception Bollinger and Hagstrom, food stamps, refugees are different.

Measuring Refugee Status No large public use cross sectional data sets have refugee status and income. CPS has detailed information on Income and Immigrant status (including country of origin and year of entry) Census of Legal Permanent Residents has refugee status, country of origin, year of entry, gender, and age at entry.

Methodology Calculate refugee probability from Census of LPR: age and age squared by country of origin, year of immigration and gender. Use model from Census to predict refugee probability in CPS. Use these probabilities for weighted averages and in likelihood functions for probits and other models (like 2 sample IV).

Poverty Measures Standard Poverty Threshold Used for all Private Income: Only private income sources such as earnings, investment income, private transfers (alimony, child support, pensions). Official Measure: Private Income + social security + means tested cash transfers. Policy Income: Private Income net of all taxes (including EITC effect) and transfers (including food stamps, housing subsidies and school lunch).

Trends in Poverty Figure 1: Three Poverty Measures Using Full Sample

Poverty Rates AllNativeImmigrantsRefugees Pre 96Post 96 Pre 96Post 96 Pre96Post96Pre96Post96 Private17.7%15.7%17.2%15.3%21.7%18.5%28.7%20.9% Official12.9%11.4%12.5%11%16.6%14.7%22.1%15.5% Net12.0%10.1%11.6%9.8%15.6%12.9%20.1%13.5%

Basic ModelAdding Labor Market Adding Full Demographics a Local Unemployment0.0610***0.0491*** (0.0021)(0.0025) Post Reform *** (0.011)(0.013)(0.014) Immigrant0.144***0.153***0.383*** (0.016)(0.035)(0.040) Immigrant x Post Reform * ** (0.020)(0.022)(0.025) Immigrant x Local Unemployment *** (0.0045)(0.0050) Refugee0.356*** (0.047)(0.13)(0.16) Refugee x Post Reform-0.270***-0.170** (0.075)(0.087)(0.10) Refugee x Local Unemployment **0.0582*** (0.017)(0.020) Constant-0.942***-1.353***-0.668*** (0.030)(0.033)(0.042) Observations Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 All Models include year and state fixed effects. a. Demographics include the Head of Household, Spouse, and Household variables from Table 2. Table 4: Probit Estimation Results for Dependent Variable Private Poor Using Full Sample

Basic Model Adding Labor Market Adding Full Demographics a Local Unemployment0.0599***0.0442*** (0.0021)(0.0025) Post Reform (0.012) (0.014) Immigrant0.161***0.142***0.359*** (0.017)(0.034)(0.039) Immigrant x Post Reform (0.021)(0.022)(0.025) Immigrant x Local Unemployment *** (0.0042)(0.0048) Refugee0.346*** *** (0.049)(0.13)(0.17) Refugee x Post Reform-0.320***-0.191** (0.075)(0.085)(0.10) Refugee x Local Unemployment ***0.111*** (0.017)(0.021) Constant-1.231***-1.553***-0.932*** (0.031)(0.034)(0.043) Observations Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 All Models include year and state fixed effects. a. Demographics include the Head of Household, Spouse, and Household variables from Table 2. Table 5: Probit Estimation Results for Dependent Variable Officially Poor (Counted Income less than Poverty Threshold) Using Full Sample

Basic ModelAdding Labor Market Adding Full Demographics a Local Unemployment0.0560***0.0404*** (0.0022)(0.0025) Post Reform *** (0.013) (0.014) Immigrant0.164***0.181***0.368*** (0.017)(0.035)(0.039) Immigrant x Post Reform (0.021)(0.022)(0.025) Immigrant x Local Unemployment *** (0.0043)(0.0049) Refugee0.298*** (0.050)(0.13)(0.16) Refugee x Post Reform-0.267***-0.166* (0.077)(0.086)(0.099) Refugee x Local Unemployment **0.0670*** (0.017)(0.020) Constant-1.312***-1.615***-0.941*** (0.033)(0.035)(0.044) Observations Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 All Models include year and state fixed effects. a. Demographics include the Head of Household, Spouse, and Household variables from Table 2. Table 6: Probit Estimation Results for Dependent Variable Net Poverty Using Full sample

Removed -OfficialBasic ModelAdding Labor Market Adding Full Demographics a Local Unemployment (0.025)(0.027) Post Reform (0.025)(0.076)(0.079) Immigrant0.128***0.178***0.151*** (0.033)(0.045)(0.047) Immigrant x Post Reform0.111***0.0312***0.0224** (0.042)(0.0096)(0.0100) Immigrant x Local Unemployment (0.24)(0.28) Refugee (0.096)(0.16)(0.18) Refugee x Post Reform-0.269* *** (0.15)(0.030)(0.037) Refugee x Local Unemployment 0.451***0.326***1.185*** (0.061)(0.066)(0.076) Constant48353 Table 7: Probit Estimation Results for Dependent Variable Removed from Official Poverty Using Private Poor Subsample

Removed-NetBasic ModelAdding Labor Market Adding Full Demographics Local Unemployment (0.024) Post Reform (0.024)(0.067)(0.068) Immigrant0.106*** (0.031)(0.041)(0.042) Immigrant x Post Reform (0.039)(0.0082)(0.0083) Immigrant x Local Unemployment (0.22)(0.23) Refugee (0.088)(0.15)(0.16) Refugee x Post Reform (0.14)(0.026)(0.028) Refugee x Local Unemployment 0.121*0.794*** (0.064)(0.071) Constant48353 *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 All Models include year and state fixed effects. a. Demographics include the Head of Household, Spouse, and Household variables from Table 2. Table 7: Probit Estimation Results for Dependent Variable Removed from Net Poverty Using Private Poor Subsample

Conclusions Immigrants are more likely to be poor, refugees most likely. Policy, both pre- and post-reform appears to move refugees and immigrants out of poverty more effectively than native counterparts. Differences in poverty rates, in general, are due to differences in private sources of income rather than policy differentials.