Economic Outlook Joe Cortright March 2007

The Two Scariest Words in School…

Pop Quiz

College Attainment Question 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four-year college degree?

College Attainment Question 1. What percent of adult Oregonians have completed a four- year college degree? Answer: 27.7% (American Community Survey, 2005)

High School Graduation Question 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)?

High School Graduation Question 2. What percent of adult Oregonians have only a high school diploma, or less education? (What percent have no education beyond high school)? Answer: 38.8% (American Community Survey, 2005)

Returns to Education Question 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma?

Returns to Education Question 3. Each year, how much more does the typical 4-year college graduate earn than the typical person with just a high school diploma? Answer: 83% More High school graduate only: $27,915 4-year College Degree: $51,206 (Current Population Survey, 2003)

Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted) 1975

Annual Earnings (Inflation-adjusted) 2003

Who Pays Taxes Question 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households?

Who Pays Taxes Question 4. One-third of all Oregon households have at least one household member with a four-year college degree. What fraction of Oregon income tax revenues are paid by these households? Answer: 55% (Impresa estimates from OPS and IRS data)

Public Expenditures: Health Question 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: Health Question 5. What fraction of the adult enrollees in the Oregon Health Plan have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 62%. (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: Corrections Question 6. What fraction of the inmates in the Oregon Correctional system have a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 72% (Impresa estimates from OPS data)

Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education?

Public Expenditures: Unemployment Question 7. What percentage of persons drawing unemployment insurance payments in Oregon have just a high school diploma or less education? Answer: 71% (Impresa estimates from Oregon Employment Department data)

Nearly 3/4 ths of UI Claimants have less than only a High School Diploma or less education (Data courtesy Oregon Employment Department)

Civic Participation Question 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma?

Civic Participation Question 8. How much more likely are persons with a 4-year college degree to vote than those with just a high school diploma? Answer: 59% more likely High School Graduate: 43.3% 4 Year College Graduate 68.7% (Adults 25 to 44, Current Population Survey, 2004 Election)

Diversity Question 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic?

Diversity Question 9. What fraction of the kids who will enter Kindergarten in Oregon next year are Hispanic? Answer: About one in six (17%) (American Community Survey)

Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the world’s population will attend secondary school?

Global High School Question 10: What fraction of the world’s population will attend secondary school? Answer: Three in Five. 60% of the world’s population will attend secondary school. Secondary School is nearly universal in Europe, Korea, Japan & 70% in China, 64% in Mexico, 60% in Brazil, 50% in India.

Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the world’s college students attend classes in the United States?

Worldwide College Attendance Question 11. What percentage of the world’s college students attend classes in the United States? Answer: US Accounts for just 16% million of world’s 88 million -- college students

State Per Capita Income Drivers Question 12: What’s the biggest single factor determining differences in state per capita income A. Tax Levels B. Business Climate C. Bill Gates D. % of Adults with a 4-Year Degree

D. % of Adults with a Four-Year Degree

Education matters Drives personal income Contributes to state revenue Lack of education drives state costs Education increases civic engagement Ethnic and gender diversity increasing Global competitiveness

A Seismic Shift in Labor Markets Last 30 Years –Boomers enter prime work years –Women’s labor market participation nearly doubles –Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years –Boomers retire; many early –Women’s labor market participation plateaus –Educational attainment plateaus = Labor Shortage

For More Information