1 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cindi Kerschbaumer, OMEGA District Bret Allphin, Buckeye Hills District Mike Lloyd, OSU Extension Noble County Cindy Bond, OSU Extension Guernsey County Nancy Bowen Ellzey, OSU Extension

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Building Sustainable Communities in Ohio’s Shale Region: Leveraging Manufacturing Clusters and Local Assets with Strategic Planning

3 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Program Objectives Situation Overview EDA Project Overview Project Partners Scope of Work Timeline IMPLAN Economic Impact Analysis

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Situation Overview

5 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Click to add header Click to add bulleted text right here

6 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Click to add header Click to add bulleted text right here

7 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Midstream infrastructure Click to add bulleted text right here

8 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Midstream

9 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Diversification is Essential Focus on diversifying economy. Make investments that make community more attractive to locate new businesses. Encourage small businesses, entrepreneurs, and innovation. Build Human Capital - High levels of human capital have been strongly associated with high regional economic growth rates (Simon, 1998).

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION EDA Project Overview

11 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Scope of Work 1.Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis 2.Industry Capacity Assessment 3.Asset Mapping 4.Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS 5.Develop Implementation Strategies

12 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION

13 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION EDA Proposal Project Partners U.S. Department of Commerce - Economic Development Administration Ohio State University Extension Core Project Team OSU Extension Shale Working Group Regional Economic Development Organizations: Eastgate Regional Council of Governments Northeast Ohio Four County Regional Planning and Development Organization Ohio Mid-Eastern Governments Association Buckeye Hills-Hocking Valley Regional Development District

14 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Click to add header Click to add bulleted text right here

15 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 1) Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis The primary objective of the cluster analysis is to better understand to what degree the regional economy changes as a result of shale development, specifically level and type of employment, in addition to sectorial changes within the economy. We will measure changes using employer enterprise data that is accessed through the Center for Human Resource Research (CHRR) Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI) restricted access database and public data sets including the census and IMPLAN.

16 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 2) Industry Capacity Assessment The overall goal of the industry capacity assessment is to acquire specific data from businesses in the twenty-five county region illustrating the strengths, assets, and supply chain supporting manufacturing advancements related to the shale industry and to determine how reliant the businesses are on continued shale production in eastern Ohio.

17 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 3) Asset Mapping Regional assets that may be included in the mapping initiative include: Economic Data from the Advanced Cluster Analysis Results from Industry Capacity Assessment Population Demographics Education / R&D Institutions Financial Capital Physical Shale Infrastructure Shale Energy Development Activity

18 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 4) Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS 1.Shale Development 101: Preparing your community for shale development 2.Creating a Community Inventory 3. Economic Impacts of Shale Development 4.Social Impacts of Shale Development 5.Environmental Impacts of Shale Development 6.Bringing it all together – Sustainable Community Goals

19 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION 5) Develop Implementation Strategies A key strength in this proposal is the seamless integration of economic research, analysis, and sustainable strategic planning into the regional economic development districts CEDS.

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Economic Impact Analysis Initial Findings

21 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis Analyzing CHRR Data Finding industry concentrations (location quotient analysis) Finding industry strengths (shift share analysis) Preparing CHRR Data Step 1: OrganizingStep 2: Aggregating Accessing Data Sources IMPLANCHRR

22 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION What Will we Measure with IMPLAN? IMPLAN is an input/output economic model that can measure economic change (economic and demographic) based on industry (shale) contribution over time We will measure economic indicators such as value added, total output and cluster concentration We will also measure demographic indicators including population and household income

23 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION IMPLAN and Average Household Income Average household income in IMPLAN measures for: Government retirement benefits Transfer payments including social security Employer paid benefits (cash or non-cash) Investment income including royalties Rental income Non-cash payments such as subsidized or public housing Vs. census household income which measures for: Income received directly by individuals and reported on long form.

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA District

25 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA District Employment Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

26 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA District Population Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

27 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA District Household Income Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

28 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change ( ) Sector 2008 Employment 2012 Employment % Change Food and drinking places16,91917,9835.9% State & local government (education)16,06714, % State & local government (non-education)12,07713, % Private hospitals9,3569,8635.1% Nursing and residential care facilities8,5248,8925.5% Wholesale trade 8,3818,370-.1% Retail and general merchandise7,0746, % Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs6,2406, % Offices of physicians, dentists and other health6,1186,7329.1% Construction of new nonresidential structures5,6656,1272.3% Source: IMPLAN

29 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION OMEGA 2012 Industry Clusters IndustryEmployment Concentration (LQ) Primary Metal Mfg2, Glass & Ceramics Mining Forest & Wood Products4, Fabricated Metal Product Mfg4, Chemicals & Chemical Based Products6, Machinery Mfg2, Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg Advanced Materials10, Manufacturing Supercluster10, Source: Statsamerica.org

30 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Summary OMEGA District is on an upward trajectory in terms of population, employment and household income growth. The population growth rate, 6,650 people between , is especially significant. OMEGA is comprises almost 85% of producing wells, with over half of those in Carroll County alone. With a heavy concentration of producing wells in the OMEGA District, it is leading the way to demonstrate indicators as a result of shale development. Source: IMPLAN

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Buckeye Hills/Hocking Hills District

32 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION BH/HH District Employment Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

33 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION BH/HH District Population Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

34 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION BH/HH District Household Income Trends ( ) Source: IMPLAN

35 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION BH/HH Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change ( ) Sector 2008 Employment 2012 Employment% Change State & local government (education)14,26212, % Food and drinking places6,1886,87310% State & local government (non-education)4,6157, % Nursing and residential care facilities3,0463, % Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs2,8882, % Offices of physicians, dentists and other health2,1322, % Construction of new nonresidential structures1,9242,1008.4% Private household operations2,062Dropped from top tenN/A Private hospitals2,016Dropped from top tenN/A Transport by truckNot on list in 081,850N/A Source: IMPLAN

36 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION BH/HH 2012 Industry Clusters IndustryEmployment Concentration (LQ) Primary Metal Mfg Glass & Ceramics Chemicals & Chemical Based Products2, Mining Education & Knowledge Creation4, Transportation Equipment Mfg Fabricated metal Product Mfg Forest & Wood Products Biomedical/Biotechnical8, Machinery Mfg Source: Statsamerica.org

37 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Summary Changes are just beginning to emerge in the BH/HH District, but not all in the positive direction. Household income dropped along with employment between , an indicator that may be temporary requiring further investigation. A new sector to the top ten, transport by truck, and significantly increased population figures – up almost 6,000 between help to tell the story of change. Number of producing wells currently at 41 vs. 324 in OMEGA, but with 153 permits issued (76 in Noble and 64 in Monroe counties), the region’s shale industry is taking flight.

38 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION What’s Next? Continue to analyze data to measure economic changes that occur using IMPLAN and CHRR data sets, in addition to new data being released Round out list of indicators to include socio-economic changes Housing, environmental, education, public services, crime, etc. Combine IMPLAN results with socio-economic changes and survey research to “tell the story” Review results annually and at five year intervals

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Thank You!