Controlling Vehicular Air Pollution in Beijing Professor Kebin He Dept. of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University Orlando, Florida, USA June 24, 2001

Overview of urbanization Increase of number for Chinese cities

Urbanization Trends in China

NOx Concentration for Different Scale Cities

Rates of NOx exceeding standard

6 Why Beijing?

7 Motorization (Vehicles per 1000 people)

8 Vehicle ownership, million NO x concentration,  g/m 3 Beijing is characterized by its low vehicle ownership and high pollution: Comparison of Beijing with four big cities Data for Beijing is in Others are in 1990.

9 Passenger trips, billion Bicycle Bus Subway Taxi Private car Source: Yang, Urban Transportation and Environment in Beijing. Primarily due to past settlement patterns, the relatively short trips, and government policy to promote bicycle use, Beijing’s transportation heavily relies on buses and bicycles. However, Beijing is beginning to experience a rapid rate of motorization, and most of the recently increased trips come from automobiles.

10 Passenger Traffic by Public Transportation Mode in Beijing

11 Bus Car Light rail Subway MC NMV Others Comparison of passenger trip mix among big cities in the world 100% 0%20%40%60%80% Beijing Mexico city Seoul Bangkok Rio de Janeiro Buenos Aires New York London Paris Tokyo

12 China: Urban NOx Concentration

13 Beijing: Air Pollutant Concentrations

14 BEIJING: O3 Concentration in Ozone concentration in Beijing

Similar temporal variations at the two sites Strong weekly variations: max difference for two consecutive weeks is 2.5 times Weekly variations Beijing: PM 2.5 Mass Concentration Levels in

16 Beijing is developing its suburbanization and decentralization, which will increase the passenger kilometers traveled Population in suburban area Population in rural area Population in core city Population, million Source: Beijing’s Master Planning, 1993.

17 From Other Countries’ Experiences, China Has a Great Potential for Continuous Vehicle Growth Vehicles Per 1000 Persons

18 Relations between Vehicle Population and Emissions 100,000 vehicle population growth Increasing emissions of 25,000t CO and 2,000t NOx 2007 年

19 Three cases in Beijing Formulating mobile source control strategy from 1995 to 2010 Evaluating the effectiveness of air pollution control measures since 1998 Prediction of air quality in 2008

20 Case I: Mobile Source Emission Inventory (NOx, 1995, t / y)

21 Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS ●Spatial distribution of annual average concentrations in 1995 CO NOx

Case I: MOBILE SOURCE CONTRIBUTION TO AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS

23 Case I: IMPACTS OF EMISSION CONTROL ON AIR QUALITY The reduction potential of different control strategies

24 Case I: Government Action ☆ Beijing: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles ☆ Shanghai: emission standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles ☆ Emission Standard for exhaust pollutants from light-duty vehicles （ GWPB ） ☆ Standard for hazardous contents in gasoline （ GWPB ）

25 Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures emission reduction (baseline:1998 )

26 Effectiveness from four phases’ control measures

27 Meet VKT Demand Transport mode Energy consumption EmissionsAir quality Meet environ. Requirement? Scenarios for vehicle targeted measures, fuel-targeted measures, and transport system measures Non-motorized vehicles Motorized vehicles Emission factors Traffic flow distribution Policy directions Walk BicycleRailwayRoadway Light railSubway GIS support system No Yes Cars LDV HDGV HDDV ………

28 Tranportation MODE Priorities: Rail, Public, Bicycle, Car

29 Future plan for Beijing’s Railroad

30 Clean transportation for Olympics

31 Future Consideration

32 Case III: Prediction of PM10 Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO1 2 3EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ High-duty vehicles Motorcycles

33 Case III: Prediction of NOx Concentration in Beijing in 2008 Mobile source control strategies (Scenario 2) -- For new vehicles EURO1 2 3EURO 4 Light-duty vehicles Ⅰ Light-duty vehicles Ⅱ High-duty vehicles Motorcycles

34 概 述 Thank You!