Preliminary Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop Preliminary Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts June 24, 2015 Gordon Schremp Energy Assessments Division California Energy Commission

Presentation Overview Aviation fuels – Types and near-term historical consumption Aviation fuel forecast approach – Federal information resources Historical data FAA projections – Adjustments based on California relationship to national trends Preliminary aviation fuel forecast results – Enplaned passengers – U.S. and California – Fuel consumption per passenger – California commercial jet fuel consumption 6/24/20152 California Energy Commission

Aviation Fuels Three types: – Aviation gasoline, military jet fuel, and commercial jet fuel Historical data resources & methodology – Aviation gasoline Monthly data published by the California State Board of Equalization (BOE) – Military jet fuel – JP5 and JP8 Supply/demand balance constructed based on: – Defense Logistics Agency (DLA Energy) solicitation packages & addendums – CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports & pipeline exports – Regional analysis for CA, AZ, NV & NM – 67 individual locations – delivery terminals and military bases – Commercial jet fuel – Jet A Supply/demand balance constructed based on: – CEC PIIRA data for refinery production, marine imports/exports & pipeline exports – Regional analysis for CA, AZ & NV – BOE publishes taxable jet fuel volumes – for private jets, not in-plane fueling of commercial aircraft 6/24/20153 California Energy Commission

California Aviation Fuel Demand (2004 – 2013) California Energy Commission Sources: Board of Equalization, Defense Logistics Agency, and PIIRA data. 6/24/20154 Commercial jet fuel dominates aviation fuel use accounting for 91.4 percent of total over the last decade while military jet fuel amounted to 8 percent and aviation gasoline only 0.6 percent.

Aviation Fuel Forecast Approach Aviation fuel demand projections developed for California, not part of CEC transportation forecast modeling No aviation gasoline demand projections Commercial jet fuel demand forecast based on federal projections of: – Enplaned passenger projections for California – Fuel consumption relationship for enplaned passengers 6/24/20155 California Energy Commission

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Annual publication – 20-year outlook Fuel consumption projections for domestic and international activity for U.S. carriers – Includes passenger & cargo Passenger traffic projections – Enplaned passenger projections by airport Fuel use forecasts assumptions for – Load factors by aircraft type – Fuel efficiency improvements Passenger and cargo projections based on – Economic growth, fuel prices, etc. 6/24/20156 California Energy Commission

Historical Aviation Data Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) – Track information on aviation activity Domestic and international carriers Numbers of passengers boarding planes – enplaned passengers Routes & segments Passenger miles traveled Air cargo – ton miles Fuel consumption by domestic and international activity – Historical files can be extracted from their T100 database Actual revenue passenger enplanements for all California airports Used to calibrate historical fuel consumption data through most current year available from BTS database 6/24/20157 California Energy Commission

Additional Forecast Adjustments FAA forecasts for fuel consumption are national projections only, no state-specific forecasts California enplaned passenger forecasts used to adjust per- passenger fuel consumption projections California historical average fuel consumption per enplaned passenger already higher than national average – Greater percentage of international destinations compared to U.S. average FAA forecasts do not include high and low demand cases 6/24/20158 California Energy Commission

U.S. Enplaned Passengers (2004 – 2025) California Energy Commission 6/24/20159

California Enplaned Passengers (2004 – 2025) California Energy Commission 6/24/201510

Consumption Per Passenger (2004 – 2025) California Energy Commission 6/24/201511

California Jet Fuel Demand (2004 – 2025) California Energy Commission 6/24/201512

Questions? California Energy Commission 6/24/201513