Transitions in SE Europe and the post-Soviet space; a cross- regional comparison Othon Anastasakis South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) University of Oxford

2 Regional Transition Trajectories Fast-track transition: Central and East European countries; EU member-states Slow-track transition: South East Europe, especially Western Balkan states; EU candidate and potential candidate states Unfinished transition: post-Soviet states; European neighbourhood

3 Delayed transition: SE Europe Past the reconstruction phase towards normalisation Party politics and democratically elected governments Some political and economic achievements Developing civil societies On the road to EU integration through stabilisation and association process

4 South East Europe/Western Balkans: Political vulnerabilities Weak states and state-building issues Electoral politics often divisive and polarised Mixed party constellations composed by liberal and illiberal forces; nationalists and Europeanists Weak rule of law; issues of corruption and organised crime at regional and national levels Ethnic issues (Serbian nationalism, Albanian nationalism, ethnic polarisation in Bosnia) External dependency and foreign interferences

5 South East Europe; economic gains Sustained growth during last years Increasing wages and inflation under control Some regional interaction and cooperation Foreign direct investment (especially Serbia and Croatia) & flows into real estate Regional energy routes Increasing economic interaction with the EU

6 Economic vulnerabilities Institutional limitations Problems with the rule of law Infrastructure difficulties Unemployment Limited competitiveness Political obstacles Small markets Limited regional cooperation

7 Euro-atlantic integration Common EU and NATO orientation Different speeds in the association and stabilisation process No firm commitment towards EU membership; EU enlargement fatigue; limited economic interest in the region Intermediate EU carrots (visa, trade, financial assistance) Recent EU progress with W. Balkan states

8 Country challenges EU Accession of Croatia Sustainability of the state of Kosovo Keeping Serbia on the EU track Addressing the central state in Bosnia-Herzegovina Strengthening constitutional framework in FYR Macedonia Political backwardness of Albania Capacity building in Montenegro

9 Unfinished, hybrid transition; East European neighbourhood Fragmentation of the post-Soviet space Diversity of political trajectories Economic drawbacks Diversity of relations with Europe Strong influence of Russia Other extra-regional actors (Turkey, China, Iran, USA) Crucial geo-strategic status Increasing attention turning to this area

10 At the rim of Euro-atlantic integration Unpredictable euro-atlantic prospects European Neighbourhood policy as a privileged relationship Increasing interest from some EU member-states for the East (Poland & Sweden’s eastern partnership initiative) Competition with the Middle East and the Mediterranean side of the European neighbourhood (French interest) Increasing role of the Black Sea as an area of cooperation among heterogeneous states

11 Political challenges Drawbacks with coloured revolutions Electoral-party politics Diversity of regimes ranging from semi-democracies to authoritarianism Frozen conflicts and breakaway regions (Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh,South Ossetia, Trans-Dniester) Redirecting their focus away from Russia and closer to the West

12 Economic challenges Macro-economic instability Double digit inflations Political impediments to investment Cheaper labour Competing economic interests among states and groups of states

13 National trajectories Ukraine, advancing democracy, full fledged member of ENP and closer links with the West, yet divided with strong Russian eastern influence Moldova and Armenia are introducing democratic reforms with a look to the West Georgia on the road to democratic reform yet with electoral drawbacks and a very antagonistic relationship with Russia Belarus authoritarianism and energy blackmail to the West; idea of a union with Russia

14 Concerns from Europe’s eastern neighbourhood Border issues and migration Environmental degradation Energy supply Political instability Security concerns Competition with Russia Europe’s borders

15 The two regions compared Similar communist legacies but with some differences Both regions have pockets of instability Ethnic conflicts addressed in the Balkans, less addressed in the former Soviet space Democratisation is more advanced in the W. Balkans The post-Soviet space is economically and strategically more important, bigger and vital in resources EU influence vs Russian influence More advanced regionalism in South East Europe Bigger western linkage and leverage for W. Balkans