Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: a meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials Ungroup once.

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Presentation transcript:

Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: a meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 6 clicks Lancet 2010; 376: 1670–81 DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61350-5

Second CTT cycle: more vs less intensive statin therapy Study Treatment comparison N Target population Entry lipid criteria PROVE-IT A 80 vs. P 40 4162 ACS TC ≤240 mg/dL A to Z S 40 then S 80 vs. placebo then S 20 4497 TC ≤250 mg/dL TNT A 80 vs. A 10 10,001 Prior CHD LDL-C 130-250 mg/dL TG ≤600 mg/dL IDEAL A 80 vs. S 20-40 8888 SEARCH S 80 vs. S 20 12,064 TC ≥4.5 mmol/L or ≥3.5 if on statins Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 6 clicks

Second CTT cycle: additional trials of statin vs control Study Treatment comparison N Target population Entry lipid criteria MEGA P 10-20 vs. usual care 8214 Primary prevention TC 220-270 mg/dL JUPITER R 20 vs. placebo 17 802 Primary prevention (but CRP>2 mg/dL) LDL-C <130 mg/dL, TG <500 mg/dL 4D A 20 vs. placebo 1255 Type 2 DM + haemodialysis LDL-C 80-190 mg/dL TG <1000 mg/dL AURORA R 10 vs. placebo 2773 Haemodialysis None ALLIANCE A 10-80 (until LDL <80 mg/dL) vs. usual care 2442 Prior CHD LDL-C 110-200 mg/dL on lipid lowering drugs, 130-250 mg/dL if not ASPEN A 10 vs. placebo 2410 Type 2 DM + CHD or risk factors LDL-C <150, TG ≤445 mg/dL with CHD; LDL-C <159, TG ≤600 mg/dL without GISSI-HF 4574 CHF Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 6 clicks

Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS unweighted for 1-year LDL-C differences No. of events (% pa) Statin/more Control/less Relative risk (CI) More vs. less statin PROVE-IT 406 (11.3) 458 (13.1) A to Z 257 (7.2) 282 (8.1) TNT 889 (4.0) 1164 (5.4) IDEAL 938 (5.2) 1106 (6.3) SEARCH 1347 (3.6) 1406 (3.8) Subtotal (5 trials) 3837 (4.5) 4416 (5.3) 0.85 (0.82 - 0.89) Statin vs. control First cycle (14 trials) 5883 (3.1) 7467 (4.0) 0.77 (0.74 - 0.79) ALLIANCE 254 (5.4) 293 (6.4) 4D 144 (9.0) 162 (10.1) ASPEN 114 (2.7) 136 (3.3) MEGA 102 (0.5) 140 (0.7) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 6 clicks JUPITER 105 (0.5) 194 (1.0) GISSI-HF 172 (2.2) 174 (2.2) AURORA 362 (8.1) 368 (8.3) Subtotal (21 trials) 7136 (2.8) 8934 (3.6) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.81) Total (26 trials) 10973 (3.2) 13350 (4.0) 0.80 (0.78 - 0.83) 99% or 95% CI 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 Difference between more vs. less and statin vs. control: c 2 = 10.7, p=0.001 Statin/more better Control/less better 1

MORE VS LESS STATIN – Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS unweighted for 1-year LDL-C differences No. of events (% pa) More statin Less statin Relative risk (CI) Nonfatal MI 1175 (1.3%) 1380 (1.5%) 0.85 (0.76 - 0.94) CHD death 645 (0.7%) 694 (0.7%) 0.93 (0.81 - 1.07) Any major coronary event 1725 (1.9%) 1973 (2.2%) 0.87 (0.81 - 0.93) CABG 637 (0.7%) 731 (0.9%) 0.86 (0.75 - 0.99) PTCA 1166 (1.3%) 1508 (1.8%) 0.76 (0.69 - 0.84) Unspecified 447 (0.5%) 502 (0.6%) 0.87 (0.74 - 1.03) Any coronary revascularisation 2250 (2.6%) 2741 (3.2%) 0.81 (0.76 - 0.85) Ischaemic stroke 440 (0.5%) 526 (0.6%) 0.84 (0.71 - 0.99) Haemorrhagic stroke 69 (0.1%) 57 (0.1%) 1.21 (0.76 - 1.91) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 10 clicks Unknown stroke 63 (0.1%) 80 (0.1%) 0.79 (0.51 - 1.21) Any stroke 572 (0.6%) 663 (0.7%) 0.86 (0.77 - 0.96) Any major vascular event 3837 (4.5%) 4416 (5.3%) 0.85 (0.82 - 0.89) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 More statin better Less statin better

mmol/L LDL-C reduction Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction No. of events (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less More vs. less statin PROVE-IT 406 (11.3) 458 (13.1) A to Z 257 (7.2) 282 (8.1) TNT 889 (4.0) 1164 (5.4) IDEAL 938 (5.2) 1106 (6.3) SEARCH 1347 (3.6) 1406 (3.8) Subtotal (5 trials) 3837 (4.5) 4416 (5.3) 0.72 (0.66 - 0.78) Statin vs. control First cycle (14 trials) 5883 (3.1) 7467 (4.0) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.81) ALLIANCE 254 (5.4) 293 (6.4) 4D 144 (9.0) 162 (10.1) ASPEN 114 (2.7) 136 (3.3) MEGA 102 (0.5) 140 (0.7) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 6 clicks JUPITER 105 (0.5) 194 (1.0) GISSI-HF 172 (2.2) 174 (2.2) AURORA 362 (8.1) 368 (8.3) Subtotal (21 trials) 7136 (2.8) 8934 (3.6) 0.79 (0.77 - 0.81) Total (26 trials) 10973 (3.2) 13350 (4.0) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.80) 99% or 95% CI 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 Difference between more vs. less and statin vs. control: c 2 = 4.5, p=0.03 Statin/more better Control/less better 1

mmol/L LDL-C reduction MORE VS LESS STATIN – Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction No. of events (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction More statin Less statin Nonfatal MI 1175 (1.3%) 1380 (1.5%) 0.71 (0.58 - 0.87) CHD death 645 (0.7%) 694 (0.7%) 0.85 (0.63 - 1.15) Any major coronary event 1725 (1.9%) 1973 (2.2%) 0.74 (0.65 - 0.85) CABG 637 (0.7%) 731 (0.9%) 0.72 (0.55 - 0.95) PTCA 1166 (1.3%) 1508 (1.8%) 0.60 (0.50 - 0.71) Unspecified 447 (0.5%) 502 (0.6%) 0.78 (0.58 - 1.04) Any coronary revascularisation 2250 (2.6%) 2741 (3.2%) 0.66 (0.60 - 0.73) Ischaemic stroke 440 (0.5%) 526 (0.6%) 0.69 (0.50 - 0.95) Haemorrhagic stroke 69 (0.1%) 57 (0.1%) 1.39 (0.57 - 3.39) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 10 clicks Unknown stroke 63 (0.1%) 80 (0.1%) 0.63 (0.24 - 1.66) Any stroke 572 (0.6%) 663 (0.7%) 0.74 (0.59 - 0.92) Any major vascular event 3837 (4.5%) 4416 (5.3%) 0.72 (0.66 - 0.78) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 More statin better Less statin better

mmol/L LDL-C reduction STATIN VS CONTROL – Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction No. of events (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction Statin Control Nonfatal MI 2310 (0.9%) 3213 (1.2%) 0.74 (0.69 - 0.78) CHD death 1242 (0.5%) 1587 (0.6%) 0.80 (0.73 - 0.86) Any major coronary event 3380 (1.3%) 4539 (1.7%) 0.76 (0.73 - 0.79) CABG 816 (0.3%) 1126 (0.4%) 0.76 (0.69 - 0.83) PTCA 601 (0.2%) 775 (0.3%) 0.78 (0.69 - 0.89) Unspecified 1686 (0.6%) 2165 (0.8%) 0.76 (0.70 - 0.83) Any coronary revascularisation 3103 (1.2%) 4066 (1.6%) 0.76 (0.73 - 0.80) Ischaemic stroke 987 (0.4%) 1225 (0.5%) 0.80 (0.73 - 0.88) Haemorrhagic stroke 188 (0.1%) 163 (0.1%) 1.10 (0.86 - 1.42) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 10 clicks Unknown stroke 555 (0.2%) 629 (0.2%) 0.88 (0.76 - 1.02) Any stroke 1730 (0.7%) 2017 (0.8%) 0.85 (0.80 - 0.90) Any major vascular event 7136 (2.8%) 8934 (3.6%) 0.79 (0.77 - 0.81) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Statin better Control better

Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction, by baseline prognostic factors No. of patients (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/l LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less Previous coronary disease: CHD 8395 (4.5%) 10123 (5.6%) 0.79 (0.76 - 0.82) Non-CHD vascular 674 (3.1%) 802 (3.7%) 0.81 (0.71 - 0.92) None 1904 (1.4%) 2425 (1.8%) 0.75 (0.69 - 0.82) Diabetes: Type 1 diabetes 145 (4.5%) 192 (6.0%) 0.77 (0.58 - 1.01) Type 2 diabetes 2494 (4.2%) 2920 (5.1%) 0.80 (0.74 - 0.86) No diabetes 8272 (3.2%) 10163 (4.0%) 0.78 (0.75 - 0.81) Sex: Male 8712 (3.5%) 10725 (4.4%) 0.77 (0.74 - 0.80) Female 2261 (2.5%) 2625 (2.9%) 0.83 (0.76 - 0.90) Age (years) £65 6056 (2.9%) 7455 (3.6%) 0.78 (0.75 - 0.82) >65, £75 4032 (3.7%) 4908 (4.6%) 0.78 (0.74 - 0.83) >75 885 (4.8%) 987 (5.4%) 0.84 (0.73 - 0.97) Body mass index (kg/m2): Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 10 clicks <25 3030 (3.0%) 3688 (3.7%) 0.79 (0.74 - 0.84) ³25,< 30 5033 (3.3%) 6125 (4.1%) 0.78 (0.74 - 0.82) ³30 2732 (3.3%) 3331 (4.1%) 0.78 (0.73 - 0.84) Smoking status: Current smokers 2268 (3.6%) 2896 (4.7%) 0.78 (0.73 - 0.84) Non-smokers 8703 (3.1%) 10452 (3.9%) 0.78 (0.75 - 0.82) Total 10973 (13.0%) 13350 (15.8%) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.80) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Statin/more better Control/less better

Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction, by baseline prognostic factors No. of patients (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/l LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less Treated hypertension: Yes 6176 (3.7%) 7350 (4.5%) 0.80 (0.76 - 0.84) No 4543 (2.7%) 5707 (3.5%) 0.76 (0.72 - 0.80) Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg): <140 5470 (3.2%) 6500 (3.8%) 0.80 (0.77 - 0.85) ³140,< 160 3145 (3.0%) 4049 (3.9%) 0.75 (0.70 - 0.80) ³160 2067 (3.6%) 2473 (4.5%) 0.79 (0.73 - 0.85) Diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg): <80 4558 (3.5%) 5306 (4.2%) 0.81 (0.76 - 0.85) ³80,< 90 3670 (3.0%) 4587 (3.8%) 0.77 (0.73 - 0.82) ³90 2452 (3.0%) 3128 (3.9%) 0.77 (0.72 - 0.82) Estimated GFR (mL/min/1.73m2): < 60 2712 (4.1%) 3354 (5.1%) 0.77 (0.72 - 0.83) ³60, < 90 Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Move down 10 clicks 6161 (3.2%) 7540 (4.0%) 0.78 (0.75 - 0.82) ³90 1315 (2.5%) 1571 (3.0%) 0.77 (0.69 - 0.85) HDL-C (mmol/L): £1.0 5032 (4.0%) 6165 (5.0%) 0.78 (0.75 - 0.82) >1.0, £1.3 3656 (3.1%) 4452 (3.9%) 0.77 (0.73 - 0.82) >1.3 2199 (2.4%) 2633 (2.9%) 0.80 (0.74 - 0.87) Total 10973 (13.0%) 13350 (15.8%) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.80) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Statin/more better Control/less better

mmol/L LDL-C reduction Proportional effects on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS per mmol/L LDL-C reduction, by baseline LDL-C No. of events (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less More vs less statin <2.0 704 (17.9%) 795 (20.2%) 0.71 (0.52 - 0.98) ³2,<2.5 1189 (18.4%) 1317 (20.8%) 0.77 (0.64 - 0.94) ³2.5,<3.0 1065 (20.1%) 1203 (22.2%) 0.81 (0.67 - 0.97) ³3,<3.5 517 (20.4%) 633 (25.8%) 0.61 (0.46 - 0.81) ³3.5 303 (23.9%) 398 (31.2%) 0.64 (0.47 - 0.86) Total 3837 (19.4%) 4416 (22.3%) 0.72 (0.66 - 0.78) Statin vs control <2.0 206 (9.0%) 217 (9.7%) 0.87 (0.60 - 1.28) ³2,<2.5 339 (7.7%) 412 (9.1%) 0.77 (0.62 - 0.97) ³2.5,<3.0 801 (8.2%) 1022 (10.5%) 0.76 (0.67 - 0.86) ³3,<3.5 1490 (10.8%) 1821 (13.3%) 0.77 (0.71 - 0.84) ³3.5 4205 (12.6%) 5338 (15.9%) 0.80 (0.77 - 0.84) Total 7136 (11.0%) 8934 (13.8%) 0.79 (0.77 - 0.81) All trials Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Increase size to 115% Move to the right 6 clicks Move down 3clicks <2.0 910 (14.7%) 1012 (16.4%) 0.78 (0.61 - 0.99) ³2,<2.5 1528 (14.0%) 1729 (15.9%) 0.77 (0.67 - 0.89) ³2.5,<3.0 1866 (12.4%) 2225 (14.7%) 0.77 (0.70 - 0.85) ³3,<3.5 2007 (12.3%) 2454 (15.2%) 0.76 (0.70 - 0.82) ³3.5 4508 (13.0%) 5736 (16.5%) 0.80 (0.76 - 0.83) Total 10973 (13.0%) 13350 (15.8%) 0.78 (0.76 - 0.80) 99% or 95% CI 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 Statin/more better Control/less better

Proportional effects on CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY per mmol/L LDL-C reduction No. of deaths(% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less Vascular causes CHD 1887 (0.5%) 2281 (0.6%) 0.80 (0.74 - 0.87) Other cardiac 1446 (0.4%) 1603 (0.4%) 0.89 (0.81 - 0.98) All cardiac 3333 (0.9%) 3884 (1.1%) 0.84 (0.80 - 0.88) Ischaemic stroke 153 (0.0%) 139 (0.0%) 1.04 (0.77 - 1.41) Haemorrhagic stroke 102 (0.0%) 89 (0.0%) 1.12 (0.77 - 1.62) Unknown stroke 228 (0.1%) 273 (0.1%) 0.85 (0.66 - 1.08) Stroke 483 (0.1%) 501 (0.1%) 0.96 (0.84 - 1.09) Other vascular 404 (0.1%) 409 (0.1%) 0.98 (0.81 - 1.18) Any vascular 4220 (1.2%) 4794 (1.3%) 0.86 (0.82 - 0.90) Non-vascular Cancer 1781 (0.5%) 1798 (0.5%) 0.99 (0.91 - 1.09) Respiratory 224 (0.1%) 237 (0.1%) 0.88 (0.70 - 1.11) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Increase size to 115% Move to the right 6 clicks Move down 3clicks Trauma 127 (0.0%) 127 (0.0%) 0.98 (0.70 - 1.38) Other non-vascular 811 (0.2%) 832 (0.2%) 0.96 (0.83 - 1.10) Any non-vascular 2943 (0.8%) 2994 (0.8%) 0.97 (0.92 - 1.03) Unknown death 479 (0.1%) 539 (0.1%) 0.87 (0.76 - 0.99) Any death 7642 (2.1%) 8327 (2.3%) 0.90 (0.87 - 0.93) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Statin/more better Control/less better

mmol/L LDL-C reduction Proportional effects on SITE SPECIFIC CANCER per mmol/L LDL-C reduction No. of first cancers (% pa) Relative risk (CI) per mmol/L LDL-C reduction Statin/more Control/less Gastrointestinal 1166 (0.3%) 1194 (0.3%) 0.97 (0.87 - 1.09) Genitourinary 1596 (0.5%) 1645 (0.5%) 0.97 (0.88 - 1.06) Respiratory 813 (0.2%) 814 (0.2%) 1.00 (0.88 - 1.15) Female breast 267 (0.3%) 241 (0.3%) 1.07 (0.84 - 1.38) Haematological 305 (0.1%) 291 (0.1%) 1.04 (0.84 - 1.30) Melanoma 159 (0.0%) 142 (0.0%) 1.14 (0.83 - 1.56) Other/unknown 754 (0.2%) 737 (0.2%) 1.04 (0.89 - 1.21) Ungroup once Rotate right 90degrees Increase size to 115% Move to the right 6 clicks Any 5060 (1.4%) 5064 (1.4%) 1.00 (0.96 - 1.04) 99% or 95% CI 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 Statin/more better Control/less better