Tree and shrub species habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone under climate change Society for Conservation Biology Meetings Missoula, MT Nathan.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

How Do We Know What We Know?

Advertisements

North America Cold Biomes David LeBlanc Ed White.

Organisms and Environments Lesson 1 TEKS 5.9A, 5.9C, 3.9A, 3.9C

A Climate-based Interpretation of Limber Pine Management Scenarios in Rocky Mountain National Park Contributors: Bill Monahan, Tammy Cook, Jeff Connor,

Which tree species and biome types are most vulnerable to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains? Andy Hansen and Linda Phillips Ecology Department.

Weighing the Added Risk of Climate Change to Population Persistence in Native Trout Jack Williams Amy Haak Helen Neville Warren Colyer.

Forest Biome Forest Climate Forest Plants Forest Animals.

Remote Sensing Grassland Phenology in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Biophysical Correlates, Land Use Effects and Patch Dynamics November 28 th, 2012.

Soil CO 2 Efflux from a Subalpine Catchment Diego A. Riveros-Iregui 1, Brian L. McGlynn 1, Vincent J. Pacific 1, Howard E. Epstein 2, Daniel L. Welsch,

Mapping of stress on native tree species across western U.S.A. & Canada: interpretation of climatically-induced changes using a physiologically-based approach.

The Challenge. Discussion Questions What are key topics on vegetation/climate relationships that are best approached with simulation modeling? What types.

Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountains of Washington State, USA D. McKenzie, D. W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson USDA.

Alpine Vegetation- patterns of biodiversity and response to environmental change Bill Bowman- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Mountain Research Station,

Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Resources: A Scale- based Framework for Analysis David L. Peterson USDA Forest Service, PNW Station.

Fire and Climate Change in Washington Jeremy S. Littell JISAO CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

DIFFERENCES IN SOIL RESPIRATION RATES BASED ON VEGETATION TYPE Maggie Vest Winter Ecology 2013 Mountain Research Station.

1 A Conceptual Framework for Linking Climate Science with Management Climate Change Response ProgramNational Park Service July 14, 2014 SCB, Missoula,

 Smallest geographical region  Humid continental climate  Vegetation: fertile soils, heavily treed, maple, beech, hickory, black walnut trees, oak,

CLASS UPDATES Office hours: Fridays 9AM-12noon (or me for an appointment) Powerpoints – on class website Schedule changes: thesis statement, outline,

Climate Change and its impact on Forests in Europe and North America Andrew J. R. Gillespie, Ph. D. United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Habitat and Ecosystem I have, who has cards

Concerns Related to Whitebark Communities Whitebark Pine Distribution of Whitebark Pine in the GYE W hitebark pine occurs in the upper subalpine zone of.

North American Forest Biomes 1Arctic Tundra 2Boreal 3Rocky Mt. Evergreen 4Pacific Coast Evergreen 5Northern Mixed 6Eastern Deciduous 7Costal Plain Evergreen.

Studying Treeline to Assess Climate Change By Jasmine McBeath Mentors: Dr. Lisa Graumlich Greg Peterson Erika Rowland.

E STIMATING FUTURE SUITABLE BIOCLIMATIC HABITATS FOR WHITEBARK PINE IN THE G REATER Y ELLOWSTONE E COSYSTEM UNDER PROJECTED CLIMATES Tony Chang, Andrew.

Climate Change Impacts & Resource Management Stephen T. Gray Water Resources Data System WY State Climate Office University of Wyoming.

FireBGCv2: A research simulation platform for exploring fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics Robert Keane Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory Rocky Mountain.

Can we forecast changes in the distribution and regeneration of conifers in the Inland Northwest? Zachary Holden-- USDA Forest Service, Missoula MT Solomon.

United States and Canada Climate and Vegetation

Biomes of the World A journey across the Earth in 30 minutes…

Colorado Life Zones Alpine Prairie 2. Foothills 3. Montane 4.

. Wildfires Elkford Impacts and Opportunities More Fuel in Forest Drier Forest Increase in suitable range of Mountain Pine Beetle Warmer annual average.

Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project (LCC_VP) Andrew Hansen/ Montana State University Goal: Use NASA and other data and models to assess the.

What is Ecology?  The study of organisms and how they interact with their environment. (includes both biotic and abiotic factors).

Gradient Modeling Spatial layers of environmental gradients (predictor variables) known to govern rust propagation were compared to percent rust infection.

Chapter 5: Northern Character. Soil & Natural Vegetation Regions Arctic Tundra Arctic Tundra This region is in Canada's far north, and is composed of.

USFWS’ Arctic Strategy: Managing Fish and Managing Fish and Wildlife Populations in a Changing Landscape SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting October.

 Comparing Vegetation in a Riparian Zone to an Upland Area in a Colorado Montane Forest By: Abby Branson Vegetation Ecology, Summer 2013 Mountain Research.

Vegetation Regions. Tundra Types of Natural Vegetation -Shrubs, mosses, lichens, small flowers Temperature Characteristics -cold, short growing season.

NORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Hector Galbraith National Wildlife Federation.

A Winter Comparison Study of Dominant Alpine Plant Communities in the Southern Rocky Mountains and the Chugach Mountains of Southern Alaska What factors.

Impact of Climate Change on Western Forests Mortality and Distribution Changes.

Predicting Current and Future Tree Diversity in the Pacific Northwest I R S S Richard Waring 1 Nicholas Coops 2 1 Oregon State University 2 University.

Modeling Future Whitebark Pine Competition with other Species Nathan Piekielek Whitebark pine project planning session.

A snowpack comparison between a limber pine site and a spruce site within a spruce forest Sam Sartwell, Winter Ecology, EBIO 4100, Spring 2014, CU Mountain.

Restoring whitebark pine ecosystems in the face of climate change pine Bob Keane, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Fire Sciences Laboratory.

The Influence of Vegetation Type on Winter Soil Respiration Rates Scott Clingan Winter Ecology Spring 2014.

Climate.  Climate: Long term weather patterns of an area  Patterns used to describe climate  Annual variation of temperature  Precipitation  Wind.

Sustainable High Altitude Gardening Series One: Class One: Colorado Ecology.

Where Have all the Biomes Gone? ELF Activity: 1B

Becky K. Kerns 1, Dominique Bachelet 2 and Michelle Buonopane 1 present 1 USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR 2 Oregon.

Elements of Ecosystems  Biotic Factors: The living organisms in an ecosystem  plants, animals, fungi, etc.  Abiotic Factors: The non-living portions.

Impact of climate change on Himalayan Forest Ecosystems Prof. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore.

Tolerance & Succession What lives where & why. Limiting Factors factors that restrict the numbers or distribution of organisms factors that restrict the.

Climate change, forests and fire in the Sierra Nevada, California: implications for current and future resource management Hugh Safford Regional Ecologist.

Kathryn Ireland, Andrew Hansen, Robert Keane, Kristin Legg, & Rob Gump

Tolerance & Succession

A journey across the Earth in 30 minutes…

What Does an Organism Get from Its Environment?

ECOLOGICAL SUCCESSION

Species distribution modeling ideas

Higher elevations of coastal forest

“The Land Above the Trees”

Biomes of the World.

Effects of forest composition on soil nutrient concentration

What Does an Organism Get from Its Environment?

Paleoclimates and Pollen

Cariboo Regional District Offices Williams Lake, BC

A journey across the Earth in 30 minutes…

Presentation transcript:

Tree and shrub species habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone under climate change Society for Conservation Biology Meetings Missoula, MT Nathan Piekielek Andrew Hansen Tony Chang

Introduction Response to CC will require coordinated ecosystem management GYE important test bed Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Results of prior continental scale veg studies do not agree Future trees vs shrubs Objective: Provide NR managers with local results on potential impacts + opportunities across 4 elevation zones

Methods – species distribution models Application of niche theory Identifies tolerances of species in multiple climate and other dimensions Interpolation of present day conditions Application to future climates to examine change Often does little to consider dispersal, biotic interactions (Anderson 2013)

Species Abbre viation GYE Habitat niche Sagebrushartr Soil recharge followed by extended dry period Lower treeline JuniperjuscBroad temp., and dry Limber pinepiflBroad temp., rocky soils Montane forest AspenpotrMoist seeps, concavities Douglas firpsme Warm and moist Lodgepole pinepico Cold and drought hardy, tolerant of sandy soils Subalpine forest Engelmann spruce and Subalpine fir pien, abla Cold and snowy, low evaporative demand, water not limiting Photo credits: Yellowstone photo collection

Predictor Category Predictor NameAbbreviation Time Period Summary Importance Rank Water- balance Soil water deficit (pet – aet) deftSeptember1 SnowpackpackApril2 Soil moisturesoilmJune4 Soils and topography Sand fractionsandfractN/A3 Rock volumerckvolN/A5 Topographic wetness index twi N/A 7 Direct incoming solar radiation srad N/A 6

Species # Presence (n=2489) Model Discrimination (AUC) Sagebrush Lower treeline Juniper Limber pine Montane forest Aspen Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Subalpine forest Engelmann spruce Subalpine fir Results

RCP Juniper +55% (+/-16%) Limber pine -29% (+/-21%) Lower treeline Sagebrush +40% (+/-17%)

RCP Montane forest Aspen -60% (+/- 36%) Douglas fir -73% (+/-28%) Lodgepole pine -85% (+/-41%)

RCP Subalpine forest Englemann spruce -90% (+/- 41%) Subalpine fir -80% (+/- 52%)

% Suitable on Federal general % Suitable on Federal restricted

Discussion and Management Implications deft9 and pack4 = longer drier growing season Increasing suitability for artr and jusc across study area and elev. Montane habitat biggest upslope movers Most sensitive to interactions between soil conditions and water- availability Subalpine species habitat retracted upslope Unsuitable upslope soil conditions/mountain tops? Sagebrush cons. opportunity? > half on federal lands by mid- century Montane spcs biggest increase on federal general lands Valuable economic and biodiv. Subalpine species may require help? Plant in alpine when suitable Control wildfire Control competing veg Would require changes to existing management policy What are desired future conditions for subalpine forests?

Acknowledgements Funding and Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling provided by the USGS North Central Climate Science Center, Montana NSF EPSCoR, and NASA Applied Sciences. Thank you for productive collaboration with the entire NASA Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project team.