Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Key drivers of Western U.S. surface O 3 variability over recent decades: Stratospheric intrusions, Asian pollution,

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

MOPITT CO Louisa Emmons, David Edwards Atmospheric Chemistry Division Earth & Sun Systems Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Advertisements

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air.

By David Gray.  Background ozone  ozone present through natural or nonlocal sources  currently ranges from ppb in North America  Rising background.

CO budget and variability over the U.S. using the WRF-Chem regional model Anne Boynard, Gabriele Pfister, David Edwards National Center for Atmospheric.

SBUV/2 Observations of Atmospheric Response to Solar Variations Matthew DeLand Science Systems and Applications, Inc. (SSAI) Background -SBUV/2 instruments.

Interannual variations in global OH radicals over the period in GEOS-Chem, and preliminary comparisons to other models I. Bey 1, S. Koumoutsaris.

Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Workshop USEPA/OAQPS.

Sensitivity of U.S. Surface Ozone to Isoprene Emissions & Chemistry: An Application of the 1°x1 ° North American Nested GEOS-CHEM Model GEOS-CHEM Model.

ANTHROPOGENIC AND VOLCANIC CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL Mian Chin, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Plus: Thomas Diehl,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Key drivers of western US surface O 3 variability over recent decades: Stratospheric intrusions, Asian pollution,

NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team: Investigating processes affecting Western U.S. air quality Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop Boulder, CO, July.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

CANADIAN, MEXICAN, AND INTERCONTINENTAL INFLUENCES ON U.S. AIR QUALITY Daniel J. Jacob with Rokjin J. Park 1, Helen Wang, Philippe H. LeSager, Lin Zhang.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Footprints of decadal climate variability in ozone at Mauna Loa Observatory Meiyun Lin Coauthors: L.W. Horowitz (NOAA/GFDL),

Tiger Team project : Model intercomparison of background ozone to inform NAAQS setting and implementation NASA AQAST Meeting U.S. EPA, Research Triangle.

Trans-Pacific Transport of Ozone and Reactive Nitrogen During Spring Thomas W. Walker 1 Randall V. Martin 1,2, Aaron van Donkelaar.

December 2002 Section 2 Past Changes in Climate. Global surface temperatures are rising Relative to average temperature.

OMI HCHO columns Jan 2006Jul 2006 Policy-relevant background (PRB) ozone calculations for the EPA ISA and REA Zhang, L., D.J. Jacob, N.V. Smith-Downey,

Observational Evidence: Ozone and Particulate Matter EMEP SB, 13 September summary Chapter 2 Kathy Law LATMOS-CNRS,

Drivers of multidecadal variability in JJA ozone concentrations in the eastern United States Lu Shen, Loretta J. Mickley School of Engineering and Applied.

CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy.

Tiger Team project : Processes contributing to model differences in North American background ozone estimates NASA AQAST Meeting University of Wisconsin-Madison.

C20C Workshop, ICTP Trieste 2004 The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO 2 on tropical cyclone behaviour in the Australian region Syktus J.

Volcanic Climate Impacts and ENSO Interaction Georgiy Stenchikov Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ Thomas Delworth.

Pathways for North American Outflow - Hindcast for ICART 2 Qinbin Li, Daniel J. Jacob, Rokjin Park, Colette L. Heald, Yuxuan Wang, Rynda Hudman, Robert.

Source vs. Sink Contributions to Atmospheric Methane Trends:

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Year-to-year variability in Western U.S. high-O 3 events tied to climate regimes and stratospheric intrusions: Implications.

Asian and stratospheric influences on western U.S. ozone air quality AQAST4 Sacramento, CA November 29, 2012 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments. Meiyun Lin.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Using Dynamical Downscaling to Project.

Goal: “What are the sources and physical mechanisms that contribute to high ozone concentrations aloft that have been observed in Central and Southern.

Background Ozone in Surface Air over the United States: Variability, Climate Linkages, and Policy Implications Arlene M. Fiore Department of Atmospheric.

Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy Arlene Fiore 1, Daniel J. Jacob, Hongyu Liu 2, Robert.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

Hemispheric transport of ozone pollution and the nonlinearities GMI meeting UC Irvine March 17, 2008 Shiliang Wu, Harvard Bryan Duncan, NASA / GSFC Arlene.

The Impact of Short-term Climate Variations on Predicted Surface Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern US 2020 and beyond Shao-Hang Chu and W.M. Cox US Environmental.

Estimating background ozone in surface air over the United States with global 3-D models of tropospheric chemistry Description, Evaluation, and Results.

Air Quality and Climate Connections AQAST9 St. Louis University, St. Louis, MO June 3, 2015 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments: V. Naik (GFDL), E. Leibensperger.

REGIONAL/GLOBAL INTERACTIONS IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY Greenhouse gases Halocarbons Ozone Aerosols Acids Nutrients Toxics SOURCE CONTINENT REGIONAL ISSUES:

Importance of chemistry-climate interactions in projections of future air quality Loretta J. Mickley Lu Shen, Daniel H. Cusworth, Xu Yue Earth system models.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transport of Asian ozone pollution into surface air over the western U.S. in spring Meiyun Lin Lin, M., A. M. Fiore,

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

Western Air Quality Issues and Photochemical Modeling - An Industrial Perspective Doug Blewitt, CCM AQRM Dana Wood, PE BP.

Symposium in celebration of Jennifer Logan Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Cambridge, MA May 10, Arlene M. Fiore Recent.

WESTAR Council & the University of Nevada Conference on Western Ozone Transport October 10-12, 2012 Reno, NV.

Key drivers of surface ozone variability, from WUS background to EUS extremes AQAST6 Rice University, Houston, TX January 15, 2014 Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments.

TF HTAP Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution TF HTAP Workshop, Washington, DC, June 10, 2008 Arlene.

The Double Dividend of Methane Control Arlene M. Fiore IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria January 28, 2003 ANIMALS 90 LANDFILLS 50 GAS 60 COAL 40 RICE 85 TERMITES.

F.J. Dentener, C. Cuvelier, M.G. Schultz, O. Wild, T.J. Keating, A. Zuber, S. Wu, C. Textor, M. Schulz, C. Atherton, D.Bergmann, I. Bey, G. Carmichael,

MODIS Atmosphere Products: The Importance of Record Quality and Length in Quantifying Trends and Correlations S. Platnick 1, N. Amarasinghe 1,2, P. Hubanks.

Background ozone in surface air over the United States Arlene M. Fiore Daniel J. Jacob US EPA Workshop on Developing Criteria for the Chemistry and Physics.

Impact of Transported Background Ozone on Western U.S. Air Quality David Parrish CIRES University of Colorado NOAA/ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Boulder,

Variability & uncertainty in background ozone: Relevance to present & future O3 NAAQS Arlene M. Fiore Acknowledgments: Pat Dolwick, Terry Keating (US EPA);

Estimates of background ozone and its sources from global models

Frank Dentener, PhD Terry Keating, PhD EC JRC U.S. EPA

Linking regional air pollution with global chemistry and climate:

Ozone pollution (events) in the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model

Peter Zoogman, Daniel Jacob

The Double Dividend of Methane Control

Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University

Intercontinental Transport, Hemispheric Pollution,

SCALE ISSUES IN MODELING INTERCONTINENTAL TRANSPORT

Tiger Team project: Processes contributing to model differences in North American background ozone estimates AQAST PIs: Arlene Fiore (Columbia/LDEO) and.

Questions for consideration

Effects of global change on U.S. ozone air quality

Simulations of the transport of idealized short-lived tracers

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Volcanic Climate Impacts and ENSO Interaction

HAQAST1 Meeting /4/2016 Satellite-based products and tools to support quantification and attribution of background ozone Jessica Neu, Greg Osterman,

Presentation transcript:

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Key drivers of Western U.S. surface O 3 variability over recent decades: Stratospheric intrusions, Asian pollution, and climate Meiyun Lin Presented at Air Quality Research Subcommittee Meeting, Feb Acknowledgements: NOAA: L.W. Horowitz, O.R. Cooper, A.O. Langford, S. J. Oltmans, CalNex Science Team Others: A.M. Fiore and H. Rieder (Columbia), D. Tarasick (Environment Canada) Zheng Li (Nevada Clark County DAQ)

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Major challenges for Western U.S. air quality managements 2 MAJOR CHALLENGES: -Rising Asian emissions and global CH 4 [e.g. Jacob et al. 1999; Cooper et al. 2010; Clifton et al. 2014] -More frequent wildfires in summer [e.g. Westerling et al. 2006; Pfister et al. 2008; Jaffe 2011] -Frequency of stratospheric intrusions in spring [e.g. Langford et al., 2009; Lin et al., 2012b] NEED PROCESS-LEVEL UNDERSTANDING ON DAILY TO MULTI-DECADAL TIME SCALES Annual 4 th Hi MDA8 O 3 ( AQS) Mean background, Apr-Jun NA anthrop emis off in GFDL AM3 (~0.5ᵒx0.5ᵒ) Future NAAQS? Current NAAQS ppb

Trans-Pacific Asian pollution plumes: The view from satellites Animation of daily AIRS CO columns [10 18 molecules cm -2 ] Lin MY et al. (JGR, 2012a): AGU Editors’ Highlight, Featured in Science, Nature News, NY Times Greenblog)  How important is Asian influence in surface air?

ObservedAM3 Model totalModel Asian June June Asian emissions contribute 8-12 ppb on days when OBS O 3 ≥ 65 ppb (future NAAQS)  Role of tripling NO x emissions from E. China over recent decades? Asian pollution contribution to WUS high-O 3 events Surface MDA8 O 3 [ppb]

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GFDL-AM3 BASE (with both emis & met varying over time) Long-term U.S. surface ozone trends: Did regional NO x reductions work? Observed MDA8 O 3 trends (ppb yr -1 ) 95 th 50 th Larger circles indicate statistically significant trends MAM NASA Project PIs (M.Y. Lin and O.R. Cooper) WUS: High background, thus little response to local NO x reductions AM3 BASE captures key features of observed surface O 3 trends

Subsidence of stratospheric O 3 to the lower trop of S. California (May 28, 2010) Altitude (km) North  South O 3 [ppb] at Joshua Tree (JT) AM3 total zeroNA OBS O 3 O 3 Strat Observed RH (%) [ppb] Sondes over California See more process-oriented analysis in Lin MY et al (JGR, 2012b) Simulated enhancements of O 3 Strat consistent with observed low RH Reaching surface air on the following day

Stratospheric influence on the highest observed surface ozone events in S. Nevada (e.g. June 5, 2012)  What controls year-to-year variability of such events? Ozone (ppb, 5-min) Wind gust (mph, hourly) Model O 3 Strat (ppb, 8-h average) Baseline level (~20 ppb) likely represents an upper limit. Data c/o Zheng Li (Nevada DAQ) Lin MY et al (in prep, 2015) June 3June 5, Observed Pollution

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Strong stratospheric influence on year-to-year variability of high-elevation Western U.S. surface O 3 during April-May Lin MY et al (in review, 2015) 75 th 25 th 50 th O 3 Strat 1990 Emissions held constant Nudged to “real” winds Large IAV may complicate the attribution of observed O 3 trends in short records Stratospheric Contribution (ppb)

r 2 (OBS, EACOt ) = 0.09 r 2 (OBS, O 3 Strat) = 0.43 Stratospheric Contribution (ppb) 1990 Asian pollution contributes less to WUS surface ozone inter-annual variability than the stratospheric influence Airflow from Eurasia towards the WUS in spring has weakened in the 2000s  Consistent with declines in Radon-222 and O 3 observed at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (3.4 km altitude) during spring  Too small to be discernable from surface O 3 observations over WUS Lin MY et al (2014) Apr-May

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory The high tail of the observed daily surface O 3 distribution over Western U.S. increases during La Niña springs Observed daily max 8-h average (MDA8) ozone [ppb] Neutral: µ = 56.5,σ = 7.5 El Niño (1998, 2010): µ = 56.9,σ = 7.3 La Niña (1999, 2008, 2011): µ = 58.5,σ = 7.9 Pinatubo (1992, 1993): µ = 54.3,σ = 6.5 Lin MY et al (in review, 2015) Changes in the high tail are statistically significant Probability Density

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (La Niña) 1992 (Pinatubo)  Frequent deep stratospheric intrusion events  Weaker events, lower mean values Gothic in the Colorado Rocky Mtn (2.9 km altitude) NAAQS O 3 Strat BGO 3 Total Following strong La Niña conditions, deep STT may occur with sufficient frequency as to confound NAAQS attainment MDA8 O 3 (ppb)

Lin MY et al (in review, 2015) Variance in daily O 3 Strat at 500hPa (April-May) ENSO-related jet characteristics and their impacts on lower trop. ozone variability over western NA La Niña El Niño La Niña (ppb 2 ) Lin MY et al (Nature GeoSci., 2014);

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory More frequent stratospheric intrusions expected in the following spring over WUS? Developing seasonal predictions with a few months of lead time to aid Western U.S. AQ planning? SST (C) Lin MY et al (in review, 2015) The time lag could allow regional preparations, e.g.  Conducting daily forecasts for public health alerts  Deploying targeted measurements aimed at identifying “exceptional events” MDA8 O 3 (ppb) Gothic, Colorado winter Tropical SST cooling typically peaks in winter

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Some Final Thoughts For Moving Forward Exploiting the linkage between La Niña and WUS stratospheric intrusion frequency to aid regional preparations for a high-ozone season?  Conducting daily forecast and targeted measurements Need multi-model assessment of stratospheric influence  Process-oriented evaluation to establish model credibility  Focusing on the known deep SI events as a first step  Leveraging CalNex (2010) and LVOS (2013) measurements The available weekly ozonesonde measurements are too infrequent to capture the actual variability of mean O 3  Need more frequent, continuous sonde measurements for spring? GFDL AM3

Additional Slides for Discussions

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SPRING Decreasing ozone at Mauna Loa in SPRING tied to recent La-Niña-like decadal cooling + weakening airflow from Asia Decreasing Rn (Bq/m 3 )  Weakening airflow from Eurasia ElNiño LaNiña-like decadal cooling [ Chavez2003; Meehl2013; Kosaka2013 ] Lin MY et al (Nature GeoSci., 2014) AMIP (fixed emissions) El Niño La Niña (ppb) Even higher Mean background 500 hPa, Apr-May Ozone Anomaly, ppb (25 th percentile) P< N 40N 60N

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Minor influence from wildfire emissions on inter-annual variability of springtime surface ozone over WUS

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Western US surface O 3 variability correlates poorly with O 3 burdens in the UTLS but strongly with that in the Free Trop Niño 3.4 Index 12-mon running mean UTLS O 3 anomaly (%) r 2 (UTLS, Surface) = 0.07 Apr-May mean FreeTrop & Surface O 3 anomaly (ppb) r 2 (FreeTrop, Surface) = /99 07/08 10/11 Trinidad Langford1999 noted positive correlations btw FreeTrop and UTLS O 3 observed at Fritz Peak during (without La Niña years): AM3 captures the observed relationship (r 2 =0.69) for this short record but indicates little correlation (r 2 =0.18) for the entire period.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory List of papers featured in the talk Lin, M., A.M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, O. R. Cooper, V. Naik, J. Holloway, B. J. Johnson, A. M. Middlebrook, S. J. Oltmans, I. B. Pollack, T. B. Ryerson, J. X. Warner, C. Wiedinmyer, J. Wilson, B. Wyman: Transport of Asian ozone pollution into surface air over the western United States in spring, Journal of Geophysical Research,117, D00V07, 2012, doi: /2011JD (PDF)PDF Lin M., A. M. Fiore, O. R. Cooper, L. W. Horowitz, A. O. Langford, Hiram Levy II, B. J. Johnson, V. Naik, S. J. Oltmans, C. Senff (2012): Springtime high surface ozone events over the western United States: Quantifying the role of stratospheric intrusions, Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D00V22, doi: /2012JD (Full Text)Full Text Lin, M., L.W. Horowitz, S. J. Oltmans, A. M. Fiore, Songmiao Fan (2014): Tropospheric ozone trends at Manna Loa Observatory tied to decadal climate variability, Nature Geoscience, 7, , doi: /NGEO2066 (PDF)PDF Lin, M., A. M. Fiore, L.W. Horowitz, A. O. Langford, S. J. Oltmans, D. Tarasick, H. E. Rieder (2015): Climate variability modulates western U.S. ozone air quality in spring via deep stratospheric intrusions, in review, 2015.