A Different Way to Invest. Why Invest? In US dollars. Source for 1913 and 1963: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970/U.S.

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Presentation transcript:

A Different Way to Invest

Why Invest?

In US dollars. Source for 1913 and 1963: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970/U.S. Dept. of Commerce. Source for 2014: United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic Statistics, Consumer Price Index–Average Price Data. Your Money Today Will Likely Buy Less Tomorrow $0.09 = Quart$0.09 = 1 Small Glass$0.09 = 6 Tablespoons 3

Investing means taking risks.

Not investing means taking risks, too.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. See "Growth of Wealth Indices" page in the Appendix for more information. US Small Cap Index is the CRSP 6−10 Index; US Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds; Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills; Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Capital Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926−2014 $18,176 US Small Cap Index $5,313 US Large Cap Index $135 Long-Term Govt. Bonds Index $21 Treasury Bills $13 Inflation (CPI) 6

Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to mainland China investors. There’s a World of Opportunity in Equities Percent of world market capitalization as of December 31,

Data is from Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-Securitized Bond Index. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. There’s a World of Opportunity in Fixed Income Percent of global investment grade bond market as of December 31,

How Do Many People Invest?

They Try to Predict the Future “I have a proven system for picking winning stocks.” “The market is primed for a retreat.” “That sector will continue advancing through next year.” 10

They Act on Impulse “I can’t take this bear market— I’m getting out!” “Everyone’s making money— I want a piece of the action.” 11

They Bet their Savings on Tips and Hunches “I heard it on the news. I’d better sell!” “I got a hot tip from my neighbor. It’s a slam dunk.” “My friend works in the industry— he’s got the inside scoop.” 12

They Are Swayed by the Media “How to Reach $1 Million” Money, 08/2012 “The Death of Equities” Business Week, 08/13/1979 “The Crash of ’98 Can the US Economy Hold Up?” FORTUNE, 09/28/1998 “Retire Rich – A Simple Plan to Have it All” FORTUNE, 08/16/

What Have We Learned?

Eugene Fama and Kenneth French are members of the board of directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Robert Novy-Marx provides consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Many of the Greatest Advancements in Finance Have Come from Academia Efficient Markets Hypothesis EUGENE FAMA Nobel Prize in Economics, Single-Factor Asset Pricing Risk/Return Model WILLIAM SHARPE Nobel Prize in Economics, Diversification and Portfolio Risk HARRY MARKOWITZ Nobel Prize in Economics, The Size Effect ROLF BANZ 1992–1993 Value Effect and Multifactor Asset Pricing Model EUGENE FAMA KENNETH FRENCH 2012 Profitability ROBERT NOVY-MARX EUGENE FAMA KENNETH FRENCH 1984 Term Structure of Interest Rates EUGENE FAMA

Illustration based on voluntary participation at client event hosted by a financial advisor, August Results audited by advisor. Together, We Know More Than We Do Alone Participants were asked to estimate the number of jelly beans in a jar. Range: 409-5,365 Average: 1,653 Actual: 1,670 What’s Your Guess? 16

Source: World Federation of Exchanges. Global electronic order book figures gathered from the 59 WFE member exchanges. Markets Integrate the Combined Knowledge of All Participants 17 World Equity Trading in 2014 Number of TradesDollar Volume Daily Average 60 million $302 billion The market effectively enables competition among many market participants who voluntarily agree to transact. This trading aggregates a vast amount of dispersed information and drives it into security prices.

What is the Best Way to Invest?

There Are Differing Approaches 19 Attempts to identify mispricing in securities Relies on forecasting to select “undervalued” securities or time markets Generates higher expenses, trading costs, and risks CONVENTIONAL MANAGEMENT

Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. The Conventional Approach Attempts to Outguess the Market Buys a selection of individual securities manager thinks will outperform. Sells securities when deemed overvalued. Can lead to high turnover and excess costs. 20 Market

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Survivors are funds that were still in existence as of December 31, Outperformers are survivors that beat their respective benchmarks over the period. See “Data Appendix” page in the Appendix for additional information. Source: Mutual Fund Landscape, Dimensional Fund Advisors US-domiciled mutual fund data is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Conventional Investment Methods Have Low Odds of Success Fraction of mutual funds that survived and beat their index for 15 years, ending December 31, % 8% Stocks Bonds 21

There Are Differing Approaches 22 Allows commercial index to determine strategy Attempts to match index performance, restricting which securities to hold and when to trade Prioritizes low tracking error over higher expected returns INDEXING

Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. The Indexing Approach Attempts to Match the Returns of a Commercial Benchmark Holds a basket of securities represented in the index. Buys and sells the same securities at the same time as all other funds tracking the index. 23 INDEX LIST Market

Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. The Indexing Approach Attempts to Match the Returns of a Commercial Benchmark Six months later: Securities have moved in and out of the index’s targeted range As a result, your investment may have drifted from what you intended. 24 INDEX LIST Market

There Are Differing Approaches 25 Gains insights about markets and returns from academic research Structures portfolios along the dimensions of expected returns Adds value by integrating research, portfolio management, and trading AN ALTERNATE APPROACH

Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. Viewing the Market in a Different Dimension Market 26

Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. Viewing the Market in a Different Dimension Decades of academic research have identified relevant dimensions that point to differences in expected returns. Higher Expected Return Market 27

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Investing involves risks such as fluctuating value and potential loss of principal value. There is no guarantee strategies will be successful. Portfolios Can Be Structured along Dimensions of Expected Returns A well-diversified portfolio can emphasize market areas offering higher expected return potential. 28 OverweightUnderweight Higher Expected Return Market

Applied to Practical Investing

From Insights to Implementation An integrated investment process adds value at each step. Research can be applied throughout the process for an advanced understanding of all aspects of investing. 30

For illustrative purposes only. Balancing Investment Tradeoffs 31 Two investment opportunities can have the same expected return but invite very different conditions. These conditions result in different costs, which impact net returns. A NET RETURN COST NET RETURN COST Broad diversification and patient, flexible trading lead to lower turnover and costs. Concentrated holdings and urgent, inflexible trading result in higher turnover and costs. CONDITIONS B EXPECTED RETURN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

Adding Value through Flexible, Patient Trading “I want this one—today!” “I’m flexible.” 32

Diversification neither ensures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. Focus On What You Can Control A financial advisor can help you create a plan and focus on actions that add value. 33

Appendix

Fama/French and CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Bonds and T-bills data provided by Morningstar. Inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Growth of Wealth Indices Small Cap Value Index is the Fama/French US Small Value Index (ex utilities). Small Cap Index is the CRSP 6−10 Index. Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index ®. Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds. Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills. Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. 35

Data Appendix Research conducted by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. US-domiciled mutual fund data is from the CRSP Survivor- Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Certain types of equity and fixed income funds were excluded from the performance study. For equities, sector funds and funds with a narrow investment focus, such as real estate and gold, were excluded. Money market funds, municipal bond funds, and asset-backed security funds were excluded from fixed income. Funds are identified using Lipper fund classification codes and are matched to their respective benchmarks at the beginning of the 10-year sample period. Winner funds are those whose cumulative return over the period exceeded that of their respective benchmark. Loser funds are funds that did not survive the period or whose cumulative return did not exceed their respective benchmark. Non-survivors include funds that were either liquidated or merged. Benchmark data provided by Barclays, MSCI, and Russell. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. MSCI data copyright MSCI 2014, all rights reserved. Russell data © Russell Investment Group 1995−2014, all rights reserved. Benchmark indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Mutual fund investment values will fluctuate, and shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than original cost. Diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 36