1 Using Non-Customs Data in Compiling U.S. Trade Data.

UN Recommendations on Uses of Non-Customs Data Sources: Current Recommendation: · Use if Customs records do not provide data or data is inadequate. Future Recommendations: · Specific use of non-Customs sources and compilation strategies. · Address explicitly issues of valuation and time of recording.

3 The U.S. Experience with Using Non-Customs Data Sources: The US/Canada Data Exchange (A Unique Solution). Non-customs data uses related to the Data Exchange: · Electricity flows. · Natural Gas imports. · Railcars imports (an interim solution). Estimation for low-valued transactions. Estimation of small parcel trade (a proposed future solution) Measurement of foreign military sales.

4 The US/Canada Data Exchange: Problems: · In mid 1980’s negotiations on NAFTA plagued by data discrepancies. · Reconciliation studies reveal significant undercount of each country’s export data.

5 The US/Canada Data Exchange: Solutions: · 1987 Memorandum of Understanding on the Exchange of Import Data. · US data measure southbound trade – Canadian data northbound. ·Exchange of data begins January 1990.

6 The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued): Alignment: · Import data expanded to satisfy partner exports needs. · Commodity classifications aligned. · Data release dates/times aligned.

7 The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued) : Benefits: · Disputes concerning data disappear. · Exporters relieved of data submission burden. · Customs and statistical agencies able to reallocate resources.

8 The US/Canada Data Exchange (Continued): Current Status: · Over 20 million records exchanged in · Represents over $560 billion in two way trade. ·Savings in processing costs enormous.

9 Electricity Flows: Issues: · US/Canada Data Exchange requires alignment. · Electricity historically included in US national accounts as a service. · Canada included electricity in merchandise trade data.

10 Electricity Flows (Continued): Changes: · The US agrees to include electricity in merchandise trade data. · The US begins using data supplied by Canada. · In 2007 electricity transactions to and from Canada totaled $3.7 billion. · Note: Electricity flows to and from Mexico continue to be included as services.

11 Natural Gas Imports: Issues: · US Customs reports of natural gas imports from Canada incomplete. · US import figures significantly understated when compared with independent Canadian exports.

12 Natural Gas Imports (Continued): Changes: · In the early 1990’s Census begins using Canadian export data. · In 2007 natural gas imports from Canada totaled $22.4 billion.

13 Canadian Railcars (An Interim Solution): Issues: · Change in legislation allows entry of railcars without documentation. · Reported imports of railcars from Canada (chief US supplier) drop sharply. · Canada establishes survey of manufactures to address under coverage in its export figures.

14 Canadian Railcars (An Interim Proposal): Interim Proposal: · As an interim solution to the under coverage US proposes to use Canadian survey data. · In the meantime, the US will work to restore import coverage. · Imports of railcars from Canada estimated at over $500 million in · Note: A similar problem may exist with Mexico but imports are minimal.

15 Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions: Issues: · US importers/exporters exempt from filing requirements for low-valued transactions. · Source data disappears for low-valued transactions.

16 Estimation of Low-Valued Transactions (Continued): Solutions: · Census develops estimating methodology. · Estimating factors (ratios) applied by country. · Factors updated as exemption levels increase and re-bench marked periodically.

17 Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal): Issues: · Research shows estimated low-value trade understated. · Last new data on low-valued transactions 20 years old. · Census researchers look at various ways to address underestimate.

18 Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): Courier Data: · Research identifies small parcel shipments as significant part of low-value universe. · Courier companies supply data that confirms research. · Estimating methodology using courier data proposed.

19 Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): Proposed Methodology: · Divide universe of reported records into courier/non-courier segments. · Continue to apply current factors to non-courier segment. · Apply estimating factors derived from courier data to courier segment.

20 Estimates for Small Parcel Shipments (Proposal Continued): Expected Results: · The export low-valued estimates would increase by about $ 4 billion a year. · The import estimate (with some other methods changes) would increase by about $ 3 billion annually.

21 Foreign Military Sales: Issues: · Goods are consigned to military services. · Goods move through military facilities. · Movements are outside customs jurisdiction.

22 Foreign Military Sales (Continued): Solutions: · Monthly reports collected from military services. · Data compiled from reports.

23 Conclusion: US successfully using Non-Customs Data Sources. ·US/Canada Data Exchange a prime example. US Policy on using Non-Customs Sources. ·As a policy US Census prefers to first work with Customs to address coverage issues.

24 Conclusion: US response to UN Questions. ·In response to UN questions we stated; “For the US, Customs data continue to be the preferred means of collecting quality and timely merchandise trade data”. ·We recommended that efforts first be made to improve the quality and coverage of Customs data before alternative methods are used.

25 Questions: ·Do you use non-customs source data in compiling your trade statistics programs? · What have your experiences been in using these non-customs sources? · What are your thoughts on the UN proposal concerning non- customs sources?