Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios Bucharest – 31 October 2009 Kiira Kärkkäinen OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)

Outline OECD Process Selected Trends OECD Scenarios

Future of Higher Education OECD Process

OECD Process OECD Directorate for Education OECD Directorate for Education Indicators and Analysis Management of Higher Education Education & Training Policy Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

OECD Process Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) Aims to inform long-term educational policy development and making through… Forward-looking research Educational innovation International exchanges

OECD Process Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term perspective. Two parallel forward looking CERI projects –Schooling for Tomorrow –Future of Higher Education – University Futures  Institutional synergies

OECD Process University Futures Objectives –Feed strategic reflection on major questions –Highlight past developments and recent changes –Underline future opportunities and challenges International standpoint as a special feature

OECD Process University Futures Two main types of activity 1.Thematic trends analysis 2.Dialogue with stakeholders and experts  Basis for future scenarios

OECD Process University Futures –Trends Analysis From 6 initial themes… –Demography –Technology –Globalisation –market and quasi-market forces –Academic research –Labour market … to 3 final reports… –Demography –Globalisation –Technology … and 3 cross-cutting themes –market and quasi-market forces –Academic research –Labour market

OECD Process University Futures – Dialogue Three types of meetings –Public conferences –Stakeholder meetings –Small senior-level expert meetings Some specific outputs –Overall, 12 events in 8 countries since 2003 –Discussions at the Ministerial level in 2006 –Final international conference in 2008

OECD Process University Futures – Scenarios Scenarios not seen as predictions of the future…. … but as a tool to combine several trends and think about future options in a creative and structured manner. Where are we going? Where should we go and why? How could we get there?

OECD Process Some Lessons Learned Stakeholder and expert dialogue… … brings in new and confirms old ideas… …reflects and contrasts different points of view… … develops common understanding on key issues… …and adds political weight on scenarios.

OECD Process Some Lessons Learned International comparative trends… …help understand dynamics of change in a broader scale… …support neutrality of analysis… …but stay in general level… …and are subject to path dependency.

OECD Process Some Lessons Learned Institutional synergies… …help with process and method… …support data collection and use.

Future of Higher Education Selected Trends

Selected Trends Higher Education to 2030 Series Forthcoming Volume 2: Globalisation Volume 3: Technology Volume 4: Scenarios

Selected Trends Globalisation and Higher Education Higher education in globalised world –Highly skilled workforce –Research and innovation capacity –Cross-cultural encounters Global influences on higher education –Mobile students, faculty and institutions –International financing –Cross-border flows of idea Simultaneous forces of competition and collaboration

Selected Trends Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Number of National Students Abroad and Mobility Rate to Foreign Countries in 2007 Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Destination of Foreign Students in the OECD Area (%) and Changes (% points) Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Breakdown of Foreign Students (%) and Changes (% points) Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Share of World Citations of Science and Engineering Articles Source: OECD (2009)

Selected Trends Percentage of Worldwide Science and Engineering Articles Coauthored Domestically and Internationally Source: OECD (2009)

Future of Higher Education OECD Scenarios

OECDScenarios Four future scenarios by CERI Open networking Serving local communities New public responsibility Higher education, Inc.

OECD Scenarios Scenario 1 – Open Networking Main features International collaboration and networking leading to harmonization of systems New approaches to teaching English as lingua franca International collaborative research, even if within the persistent hierarchy of institutions Free and open knowledge exchange and access to research Related developments Bologna Process in Europe International academic partnerships and consortia Increased mobility Cheap and fast communication facilitated by the Internet Developing culture of openness

OECD Scenarios Scenario 2 – Serving Local Communities Features Institutions mainly focused on national, regional and/or local missions Mainly publicly funded and administered systems Streghtened financial support from local industry and needs- based lifelong learning Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective Convergence between universities and polytechnics Related developments Scepticism regarding globalisation, even anti- globalisation movements Emergence of geo-strategic concerns Interest in preservation of national culture and fostering social cohesion Interest in regional role of higher education

OECD Scenarios Scenario 3 – New Public Responsibility Features Autonomy of institutions combined with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools Significant share of public funding with increasingly mixed resource base Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems Marked diversification of institutions String national competition for public research funding Related developments General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate Increasingly competitive research funding

OECD Scenarios Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc. Features Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis Public funding exclusively to non- commercially viable disciplines Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding Related developments Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities

Serving Local Communities International National Market Demand-driven Administration Supply-driven Open Networking Higher Education Inc. New Public Responsibility OECD Scenarios Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems

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