Turnout in multi-level systems André Blais

Why is there a turnout gap between regional, national and European election? Usual assumption : first order and second order elections.

The Approach 1. Comparing turnout across levels 2. Comparing importance across levels 3. Determining whether differences in importance explain differences in turnout 4. Examining the sources of importance: policy impact vs attachment 5. Importance does not explain everything: Adding visibility

Turnout level in the various elections FranceGermanySpain Iles de FranceProvenceBavaria Lower Saxony CataloniaMadrid Turnout Europe43,1%43,3%40,9%49,1%46,2%46,5% National54,2%56,1%70%73,4%65,9%73,3% Regional--63,9%59,4%69,8%N-A Municipal54,9%50,3%----

Mean Importance Ratings of Regional, National, and European Elections FranceGermanySpain Iles de FranceProvenceBavaria Lower Saxony CataloniaMadrid Importance election Europe 5,9 (3010) 5,8 (2648) 4,1 (5651) 4,8 (2788) 5,2 (2857) 5,4 (1913) National 7,3 (3021) 7,3 (2657) 7 (5705) 7,2 (2804) 6,1 (2859) 6,9 (1914) Regional -- 6,8 (5703) 6,6 (2804) 7 (2864) 6,9 (1917) Municipal 7,4 (3027) 7,7 (2665) ----

The Relative Importance of European and Regional Elections in % (Compared to National Elections) National elections are less important National elections are as important National elections are more important ParisEuropean93556 Municipal ProvenceEuropean93556 Municipal CataloniaEuropean Regional MadridEuropean64253 Regional Lower SaxonyEuropean32968 Regional BavariaEuropean22078 Regional185231

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Paris, France Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 Perceived Importance3.9** (.34)+3.89** Information0.77* Political Interest3.11**1.89**1.78** Education Gender Age0.03**0.02** Municipal Europe-0.45**-0.47** _Intercept0.16**-3.2**-4.72**-4.93** Predictive Margins Municipal ** 0.52** 0.51** 0.53** 0.52** 0.55** 0.52** 0.55** Europe ** 0.43** 0.54**.45** 0.53** 0.52** 0.57** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Provence, France Model 1Model 2Model 3 Perceived Importance3.86** (.34+)3.74** Information0.71* Political Interest3.02**1.55**1.72** Education Gender Age0.03**0.02** Municipal-0.23** Europe-0.515**-0.54** _Intercept0.25**-3.46**-4.8**-5.11** Predictive Margins Municipal ** 0.46** 0.5** 0.51** 0.52** Europe ** 0.42** 0.54** 0.43** 0.51** 0.49** 0.54** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Catalonia, Spain Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 Perceived Importance2.74** (.24+)3.05** Information1.15** Political Interest2.44**1.34**1.04** Education Gender **-0.17 Age0.02**0.01**0.01 Regional0.21* Europe-0.78**-0.89**-0.95**-0.29 _Intercept0.63**-1.5**-2.13**-2.48** Predictive Margins Regional ** 0.64* 0.59** 0.63** 0.62** 0.61** Europe ** 0.48** 0.67** 0.48** 0.68** 0.5** 0.64** 0.59** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Madrid, Spain Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 Perceived Importance3.2** (.27+)3.09** Information1.23** Political Interest2.87**1.62**1.52** Education Gender Age0.01** Europe-1.15**-1.25**-0.76**-0.2 _Intercept1.01**-1.28**-2.14**-2.78** Predictive Margins Europe ** 0.47** 0.72** 0.48** 0.68** 0.54** 0.62** 0.59** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Lower Saxony, Germany Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 Perceived Importance3.39** (.28+)3.23** Information1.2** Political Interest3.62**2.1**2.04** Education Gender Age0.01* 0.01 Regional-0.63**-0.74**-0.41*0.02 Europe-1.05**-1.28**-0.53**-0.07 _Intercept1.02**-1.8**-3.06**-3.6** Predictive Margins Regional ** 0.51** 0.65** 0.52** 0.65** 0.58** 0.63** 0.64** Europe ** 0.44** 0.69** 0.44** 0.66** 0.57** 0.64** 0.63** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

The Impact of Perceived Importance on the Propensity to Vote in Bavaria, Germany Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 Perceived Importance3.68** (.31+)3.41** Political Interest3.1**1.71**1.68** Information1.44** Education1.5**1.34**0.97** Gender * Age0.01** ** Regional-0.28** Europe-1.22**-1.52**-0.38**0.02 _Intercept0.85**-2.05**-3.79**-4.22** Predictive Margins Regional ** 0.58** 0.64** 0.58** 0.63** 0.65** Europe ** 0.38** 0.68** 0.37** 0.64** 0.58** 0.64** N : variation in the predicted probability of voting when the importance score is 8 rather than 4.

Perceived importance is the most important explanatory variable. However, we must understand what shapes perceived importance.

The Effect of Impact and Attachment on the Perceived Importance of Local and National Elections Policy ImpactAttachment Paris0.13**0.01 Provence0.10**0.05** Catalonia0.04*0.26** Madrid0.07**0.02+ Lower Saxony0.24**0.08** Bavaria0.22**0.07**

The Effect of Impact and Attachment on the Perceived Importance of European and National Elections Policy ImpactAttachment Paris0.23**0.06** Provence0.21**0.1** Catalonia0.13**0.1** Madrid0.25**0.07** Lower Saxony0.4**0.12** Bavaria0.35**0.17**

And visibility The measure: knowledge of the top candidates and campaign slogans

The mean level of information in various elections Paris National.639 Paris Municipal.494 Paris Europe.114 Provence National.649 Provence Municipal.490 Provence Europe.245 Barcelona National.657 Barcelona Regional.720 Barcelona Europe.217 Madrid National.762 Madrid Regional- Madrid Europe.249 Lower Saxony National.630 Lower Saxony Regional.317 Lower Saxony Europe.200 Bavaria National.616 Bavaria Regional.524 Bavaria Europe.200

The turnout gap between elections can be explained by a few variables, especially the perceived importance of election. The perceived importance of elections can be explained by attachment and policy impact. Also relevant is voters’ knowledge of the candidates and slogans. This possibly reflects party mobilization.