20 July 2009 Professor Barbara Pocock Director of the Centre for Work + Life University of Sydney Presented to ACTU Jobs Summit 20 July Views within are those of the author and not necessarily those of the ACTU.

Barbara Pocock, Centre for Work + Life, University of South Australia ‘ACTU Jobs Summit: Pathways to recovery 20 July 2009 Unions NSW: Auditorium, 4 Goulburn St, Sydney 10am – 4pm, 8-10 th July 2009

A different context Demographics: age composition of the workforce Fertility Workplaces and the workforce Household structures Work intensification and the fall-out of the last two recessions New generations of workers

A second post-war boom

Three recessions: GDP Five quarters of negative growth Unemployment hit 10%

GDP Four quarters of negative growth Unemployment hit 11%

GDP One quarter of negative growth Unemployment to hit 8%?

GDP Last two recessions had long unemployment tails, especially 1990s (men on disability payments?)

Different gender stories?

Under-employment The labour force underutilisation rate (which includes the unemployed and the underemployed - those who would like to work more) is rising from 10.1 per cent in May 2008 (12.4 per cent for women) to 10.6 per cent in November 2008 for all persons (13.2 per cent women) in late 2008 one in five of Australia's part-time workers wanted and were available to work more hours (ABS cat no ).

Employment has contracted in 2009 and will remain weak in 2010 According to Treasury budget papers, GDP growth in Australia is predicted to be around -0.5% in 2009/10 and 2.25% in 2009/10 Unemployment rate might hit 8¼ per cent by the June quarter 2010, peaking at 8½ per cent in The participation rate is forecast to decline by 1¼ percentage points from its recent record high, reaching 64¼ per cent by the June quarter 2011 These forecasts take into account the Australian Government’s $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan, which is expected to support jobs over the forecast period The GFC

GFC – who will get hurt? Some industries, regions and individuals will be disproportionately affected Industries most likely to be directly affected: Finance and Insurance and Property and Business Services industries Industries closely linked with the business cycle: Construction, Manufacturing and Retail Trade Regions – some still recovering from 1980s and 1990s recessions. Disadvantage piled on disadvantage. People with the least skills and experience: low paid, young, low qualifications, immigrants, casuals

A demographic freight train

Fertility: the pill Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no , 2008

Population profile 2006, 2056 Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no , 2008

An aging workforce Source: ABS, Mature Age Workers: Sustaining Our Future Labour Force.

Even the Baby Bonus (or paid parental leave) cannot derail

GFC is a 5 year problem The demographic, work and household changes are a much larger 50 year problem

We will live this larger problem in the context of a workforce that is: increasingly female aging already feels overworked is pushed for time needs different skills In some cases more In some cases better deployment of them

Who’s a worker now?

The labour force is different: participation rates

Work matters more Australians are working more and more

Work and care combine for many Workers torn between work and care and the rest of their lives? A third of workers responsible for the care of children years in their households Boundaries between work and home are weaker Work is greedy and expansive And we like it

We feel pressed for time

The job is different – for some

Hours of work have changed Along with the reach of technology

Where and how we work has changed

Employment growth by occupation 5 years and 10 years to 2008 Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries

Part-time and full-time employment, 1983, 1991, 2009 by sex, Australia (‘000) Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Cat no , Spreadsheets, Jan 2009

Looking ahead: Projected jobs growth by industry, 5 years to 2012/13 Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industr ies

The job affects us differently Annual survey of Work-life outcomes across Australia Most Australians are reasonably happy with their work-life balance But many are affected by work-life strain and time shortages And it affects not just them, but their household and community interaction And their participation in education.

Work-life outcomes are shaped by Hours of work – short hours good, long hours bad Long commutes are bad – and are often paired with long hours at work Fit between actual and preferred hours – good fit is good Half don’t have a good fit Occupation – managers, professionals do badly Gender – women do worse Those with care responsibilities do worse Quality of supervision and supportive workplace culture matter Employee-centred flexibility matters Poor quality job (ie insecure jobs, feeling overloaded at work) result in worse work-life outcomes

Households are different More single parents More dual earners More commuting More rushed and pressed for time More divorce and change 28% of marriages entered into in 1985–1987 expected to end in divorce 33% for all marriages entered into in 2000– More debt – six fold in 18 years

But not household work

Add to the mix: Generational change

Gen X: born , now years 1980s recession, 1990s recession, burned Gen X Many saw their parents – long term loyal workers – sacked Many faced unemployment themselves in 1990s Have worked for many employers Have faced the understaffing consequences of the 1980s Intensification of work, overwork Not very loyal to the boss If they get the chance – through a tight labour market – they will ‘push back’ against the boss Don’t want to be ‘agents of change’ Have been stressed by work: Value good health, may not have it Money/earnings matter: highly mortgaged

Gen Y: born , now years Much more advantaged Need to be convinced to work Won’t work like baby boomers Much more highly qualified Like Gen X, they see Intensification of work, overwork Not very loyal to the boss If they get the chance – through a tight labour market – they will ‘push back’ against the boss Money matters less than Enjoyment and non-pecuniary rewards of work Challenge, learning, interesting, ‘valuable’ job Don’t look for job security in the same way Look for control, time

New generations of workers… May be significantly different Are likely to be looking for different life-time work engagement Enjoyable work Good bosses, good colleagues A balance of work with rest of life, especially care Challenging work Reward for skill and experience Learning that is integrated in the job

Gen X: Maybe….?

But not all Gen X the same: high paid, low paid

Skill, work, care and income Both high and low paid workers are time poor Highly educated workers tend to have broad-based lifetime-useful education and skills And to be in workplaces that further develop their skills and knowledge through mentoring, experience, formal training Low paid workers are different Low paid workers both time and money poor Poorer educational backgrounds, past success More literacy & numeracy problems Shallow and narrow skills use, job design Low rates of access to formal and informal education on the job or off the job More likely to be casual, and part-time

To recap The recession is not the dominant story: the aging, changing workforce, and its changing workplace and household context is bigger. A tighter labour market will empower new generations of workers But not all will be empowered in the same way New regimes of work and care are necessary And new agenda for unions

Further reading DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries. DEEWR, Canberra Ewart Keep (2009) ‘Internal and External Incentives to Engage in Education and Training - A Framework for Analysing the Forces Acting on Individuals?’, L/professor-ewart-keep.html Skinner and Pocock (2008) Work, life and workplace culture: The 2008 Australian work and life index, Centre for Work + Life, Adelaide. Pocock, Skinner and Ichii (2009) Work, life and workplace flexibility: the 2009 Australian work and life index, Centre for Work + Life, Adelaide.