What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Transport policies and measures in EU to mitigate climate change François MOISAN Director of Strategy and Research Scientific Director ADEME, France

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007  cars: specific consumption in litres/km  trucks & light vehicles : unit consumption per ton-km  air : unit consumption per passenger-km  rail,water : unit consumption/pkm or tkm  motorcycles, buses: toe/vehicle ODEX Transport : Since 1990, unit consumption of each transport mode decreased but global CO 2 emissions from transport increased by 26%

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 EU 15 Since 1990, large discrepancies in energy efficiency progress of transport modes in different Member States

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Energy demand for trucks will increase strongly (x 1.85 to 2 vs 1990) representing more than 40% of transport consumption in 2030 Private cars consumption will remain important (about 40% of total consumption) but would decrease since 2010 in absolute value Aviation consumption will increase in relative and absolute terms 13 to 15 % of total transport demand in 2030 (11% in 1990) CO 2 emissions would increase by 10 to 38% (vs 1990) ! EU transport sector in 2030 : energy and CO2 forecast (DGTREN) … but emissions of greenhouse gases should be reduced by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050 by a factor 4 to 5 at 2050

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Attractivity of public and railway transport modes (reduction of noise and pollution, TIC) Development of energy efficiency of cars : reduction of weight, auxiliaries, motors and combustion Biofuels Hybrid, plugable hybrid, electrical and natural gas vehicles Hydrogen and fuel cells vehicles Technical options for road transports

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Scenario « enhanced energy efficiency of vehicules » (50% gain on unit consumptions), contribution of biofuels (15%) and conventional oil. Scenario « fleet segmentation » : development of specific urban vehicle (electric) : limited autonomy for urban travels, alternative schemes of vehicle property (shared property…) + biofuels and conventional oil for other uses and other vehicles. Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Scenario « hydrogen and fuel cells without CO 2 » : 2/3 of vehicles are fueled with hydrogen produced by a free CO 2 source (eventually with CO 2 capture and storage) Scenario « electricity and plugable hybrid vehicle» electricity without CO 2 for 80% of motor fuel mix + 15% biofuels Factor 4 visions to 2050 : 4 road maps ( following)

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Source ADEME from C. GALLEZ 25 to 30 years to transform the cars fleet : INTRODUCTION OF A NEW PRODUCT DISSEMINATION IN THE CAR STOCK 15 years 25 to 30 years !

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Reducing energy consumption in transport sector needs specific measures beyond technological improvements… -Urban transport of passengers : public transport infrastructures and urban planning, fiscal incentives, road pricing, land taxation… -Interurban transport of passengers : railway infrastructures and new services, taxes and pricing… -Interurban transport of goods : railway infrastructures, logistic services, responsibility of companies ordering transport -Urban delivery of goods : logistic services, urban planning …Inducing new activities and new jobs

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Source INRETS Gallez 1995 pour l'ADEME IMPACT OF URBAN DENSITY ON ENERGY AND CO 2 FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVELS 67 % 79 ' 31 % 92 ' goe/day*capita - Urban planning tools for local authorities - Collective transports development - Employees traveling plans by companies

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 IMPACT OF MAXIMAL SPEED OF CARS ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN URBAN AREA Source INRETS -Tax on vehicles (€/gCO2), incentives for efficient cars - mandatory speed limitation at vehicle construction

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 COMPETITION TGV / AIR PLANE BASE TGV -Railway infrastructure development -Externalities internalization and cap on CO2 aviation emissions

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 COMPETITION RAILWAY / PLANE TGV Source METLTM 2002 MODAL SHARE REGARDING TIME OF TRAVEL

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 example Paris Toulouse COMPARISON RAILWAY & ROAD TRANSPORT example Paris Toulouse Rail-road combined transport Source SNCF ADEME IMPACT -Regulation of trucks drivers work conditions -Incentives for companies ordering transport

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Potential modal shift for goods from road : 27% of domestic, 76% of export/import, 98% of Transit traffic Source SES 2000 Transport Combiné ? A LARGE POTENTIAL MARKET -Highway taxation for trucks - harmonization of truck drivers working legislation

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 URBAN GOODS DELIVERY : IMPACT OF LOGISTIC ORGANISATION 10 km 12 x 500 kg SCENARIO 1 : PARALLEL DELIVERY SCENARIO 2 : TURN DELIVERY 6 tons 5 km Source Ademe SCENARIO 2 : Division by 4 of CO 2 emissions ! - Urban planning schemes

What jobs in a low carbon European economy ? ETUC/CES Brussels, February 2007 Policies and measures in the transport sector will change the structure of related activities Development of new functions in companies, local authorities and as new commercial services Strong potential development in the field of Information and Communication activities Large investment in infrastructure for the transition New industrial scheme for car manufacturers ? New services for mobility ?