Noëlle BRU Laboratoire de Mathématiques et ses Applications UMR CNRS 5132 Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour  : Patrick PROUZET.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Bar-EcoRe WP3: Population distributions. Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution.
Advertisements

What can Statistics do for me? Marian Scott Dept of Statistics, University of Glasgow Statistics course, March 2009.
Opinion of European Economic and Social Committee Rapporteur Mário D. Soares.
Ch 2 Review.
Port-en-Bessin, France
A thermodynamic model for estimating sea and lake ice thickness with optical satellite data Student presentation for GGS656 Sanmei Li April 17, 2012.
Figures courtesy of Matt Oliver 10 years of data.
The rise of North Sea hake: ecological impact and implications for fisheries management Alan Baudron 1, Doug Speirs 2, Mike Heath 2, Chris McCaig 2, Paul.
The Good, the Bad, the Worrisome A Critical Look at the New Common Fisheries Policy of the EC Rainer Froese Presentation at the 2013.
Monitoring the Prestige oil spill impacts on the northern Iberian shelf ecosystem Francisco Sánchez Alberto Serrano Francisco Velasco Santiago Parra Inmaculada.
THE WINE SECTOR IN GREECE: NATIONAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION.
The New Common Fisheries Policy Carla MONTESI, Director - DG MARE Directorate for the Baltic Sea, North Sea and Landlocked Member States 27 November 2013,
Lecture 22: Thurs., April 1 Outliers and influential points for simple linear regression Multiple linear regression –Basic model –Interpreting the coefficients.
“Kick Off Meeting” Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos. Institut Franco-Argentin sur le Climat et ses Impacts. Institut Franco-Argentin.
Narrated by your classmates 
Fishing Effort: fishery patterns from individual actions Dr. Darren M. Gillis, Biological Sciences, University Of Manitoba, Winnipeg,
OBLIGATIONS TO PROTECT MARINE ECOSYSTEMS UNDER INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS AND OTHER LEGAL INSTRUMENTS Transform Aqorau Scientific Symposium of the Reykjavik.
Status of Exploited Marine Fishes and Invertebrates in German Marine Waters Rainer Froese, GEOMAR Cluster Meeting ökosystemgerechte Fischerei Bundesamt.
State of the Marine Environment Rainer Froese Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel IfM-GEOMAR
Hypothesis Testing.
Simple linear regression Linear regression with one predictor variable.
60º Introduction and Background ù The Barents Sea covers an area of about 1.4 x 10 6 km 2, with an average depth of 230 m. ù Climatic variations depend.
Adour basin INDICANG – 7-8 oct San Sebastian.
The Eel Regulation and Eel Management Plans Christos THEOPHILOU European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Unit A2: Common.
IREPA Onlus – Istituto Ricerche Economiche Pesca e Acquacoltura The Relationship between Fleet Capacity, Landings, and the Components Parts of Fishing.
WP4: Models to predict & test recovery strategies Cefas: Laurence Kell & John Pinnegar Univ. Aberdeen: Tara Marshall & Bruce McAdam.
Klamath Coho Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF)
Population Dynamics Mortality, Growth, and More. Fish Growth Growth of fish is indeterminate Affected by: –Food abundance –Weather –Competition –Other.
Pacific Hake Management Strategy Evaluation Joint Technical Committee Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Pacific Biological Station, DFO School of.
What is the MPC?. Learning Objectives 1.Use linear regression to establish the relationship between two variables 2.Show that the line is the line of.
Surplus-Production Models
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
A REVIEW OF BIOLOGICAL REFERENCE POINTS AND MANAGEMENT OF THE CHILEAN JACK MACKEREL Aquiles Sepúlveda Instituto de Investigación Pesquera, Av. Colón 2780,
Section for Coastal Ecology Technical University of Denmark National Institute of Aquatic Resources Habitat modeling: linking biology to abiotic predictors.
Empirical and other stock assessment approaches FMSP Stock Assessment Tools Training Workshop Bangladesh 19 th - 25 th September 2005.
Various topics Petter Mostad Overview Epidemiology Study types / data types Econometrics Time series data More about sampling –Estimation.
Spawning stock biomass of the North Western Mediterranean anchovy in 2007 I. Palomera, L. Recasens, P. Libori, I. Alvarez, B. Molí, N. Bahamón Institut.
Framework for adaptation control information system in the Rio de la Plata: the case of coastal fisheries Walter Norbis – AIACC LA 32.
Eel Fisheries-Recruitment-Future. Decline of Eel Populations??? Outside safe Biological limits? How are we influencing change? Can we manage the population.
Séminaire Indicang 18 et 19 mai 2005 Indicang – Interreg III Situation of European eel in the Oria river basin and progress of the project.
The Stock Synthesis Approach Based on many of the ideas proposed in Fournier and Archibald (1982), Methot developed a stock assessment approach and computer.
Extending GIS with Statistical Models to Predict Marine Species Distributions Zach Hecht-Leavitt NY Department of State Division of Coastal Resources.
EU management – current situation and future actions Kenneth Patterson European Commission Directorate-General of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs.
Extinction and What We Eat
Marine Conservation Marine protected areas and reserves.
Fishing practise, science and management, a French case study Cédric Briand ÅLSEMINARIUM i Stockholm den 20 oktober 2005.
Quality of model and Error Analysis in Variational Data Assimilation François-Xavier LE DIMET Victor SHUTYAEV Université Joseph Fourier+INRIA Projet IDOPT,
Mrs Nafisat Bolatito IKENWEIWE (PhD) DEPARTMENT OF AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES MANAGEMENT UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE, ABEOKUTA FISH STOCK ASSESSMENT
381 Correlation and Regression-I QSCI 381 – Lecture 36 (Larson and Farber, Sect 9.1)
Sustainability of our food chain
Challenging the ‘right to fish’: closing the high seas to fishing U. Rashid Sumaila Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Fisheries Centre, University of.
The effect of variable sampling efficiency on reliability of the observation error as a measure of uncertainty in abundance indices from scientific surveys.
The Eel Regulation and Eel Management Plans Jean-Claude CUEFF European Commission Directorate General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Unit A2: Common.
1 Federal Research Centre for Fisheries Institute for Sea Fisheries, Hamburg Hans-Joachim Rätz Josep Lloret Institut de Ciències del Mar, Barcelona Long-term.
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Hypothesis Testing 9.
The influence of climate on cod, capelin and herring in the Barents Sea Dag Ø. Hjermann (CEES, Oslo) Nils Chr. Stenseth (CEES, Oslo & IMR, Bergen) Geir.
Day 4, Session 1 Abundance indices, CPUE, and CPUE standardisation
Population Dynamics and Stock Assessment of Red King Crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska Jie Zheng Alaska Department of Fish and Game Juneau, Alaska, USA.
Forecasting. Model with indicator variables The choice of a forecasting technique depends on the components identified in the time series. The techniques.
Biological structure of Fisheries Resources In Space And Time.
PRINCIPLES OF STOCK ASSESSMENT. Aims of stock assessment The overall aim of fisheries science is to provide information to managers on the state and life.
Fish stock assessment Prof. Dr. Sahar Mehanna National Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries Fish population Dynamics Lab November,
James Barry University of Glasgow Introduction
The Arctic Ocean Ecosystem
CHAPTER 29: Multiple Regression*
Design Considerations: Independent Samples v. Repeated Measures
SWEPT AREA METHOD.
Presentation of the thematic groups
Reasoning in Psychology Using Statistics
Marine Strategy Framework Directive Descriptor 3+
Presentation transcript:

Noëlle BRU Laboratoire de Mathématiques et ses Applications UMR CNRS 5132 Université de Pau et des Pays de l’Adour  : Patrick PROUZET IFREMER LRHA Michel LEJEUNE Université Grenoble 2 As an example the Adour Estuary (Southwestern part of France)

 About management groups :  ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the sea): “the stock of European eel (Anguilla Anguilla L.) is outside safe biological limit and that current fisheries are not sustainable”.  18 September 2007: the Council of the European Union adopted a council regulation (EC 1100/2007) establishing measures for the recovery of stock of European eel.  November 2007 : the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) listed the European eel on its Appendix II and considered the eel as an endangered species.  Glass eel = young eel...  Passive migration…  During flood tide…  Mainly by night… Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer General context… (source : IFREMER)

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer  In European estuaries: constant decrease is observed for several years. Over-exploitation at the different phases of the biological cycle ? Inland habitat loss ? Climate and ocean current changes ? Diseases ? Degradation of continental environment and pollution ?…  An estimate of biomass is needed : To quantify the importance of this decrease To study the link with all the possible causes... But absolute fish abundance in an open ocean region is hard to obtain... General context… ?

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Most methods : » Designed for a fixed stock within a given area » Geostatistical approaches » Hydroacoustics campaigns… A specific method :  in a particular environment : from the mouth of a estuary + an area of migration...  a species with a specific migratory behavior...  a method to compute an efficient estimate of glass eels abundance... Problems…

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Used to propose biomass estimates… How and why to put together these datasets ?? About the talk... What are the data available to do so ? Historical time series of professional catches (by day, into the maritime area) Data from scientific in situ surveys Step 1 Step 2 Are they really good indicators of abundance ?

Step 1 of the method : Using data from scientific in situ surveys… Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment « Observed » glass eels biomass estimates (source IFREMER)

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer All samples are assumed to be simultaneous... 1 passage  30 min ( 8 passages max !!!) …… during the flood tide…. 5 min 10 min Right Bank MiddleLeft Bank Glass eel densities (in g/100m 3 ) s=1…S (=6)k=1,…, n(=8) Main Push-sieve fishery Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment The Adour estuary

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Total biomass (in kg) for the flood tide period through vertical region R Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment J different schemes tested…

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer We need a functional form for each term!! Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment For the current speed v s (t)… A sinusoidal model depending on time A log-log linear model depending on the current speed For glass eels density d s (t)… An explicit form for the estimate + An evaluation of its variability to correct possible errors of measurement to evaluate the beginning and the end of the flood tide

 Finally, ◦ Simple method... With sparse data... ◦ Some approximations and hypothesis… ◦ More surveys than results... ◦ But “observed” biomasses seems “realistics” !  Method easily adaptable for other estuaries  Exploitation rates for push- sieve are derived by days... Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment SeasonDayBiomass (in Kg)push-sieve catches (in Kg) 98/99 12/01/ /01/ ,2 22/01/ ,2 28/01/ ,5 11/02/ ,6 17/02/ ,5 17/03/ ,5 99/00 09/12/ ,79 22/12/ ,15 05/01/ ,31 07/01/ ,64 08/01/ ,67 09/01/ ,56 12/01/ ,79 01/02/ ,18 08/02/ ,2 00/01 14/12/ ,2 21/12/ ,7 03/01/ /01/ ,5 12/01/ ,1 24/01/ ,5 26/01/ ,9 02/03 03/01/ ,4 22/01/ ,6 03/04 26/11/ ,2 21/01/ ,2 04/05 09/11/ ,3 18/11/ ,8 23/11/ ,5 08/12/ /12/ ,6

Step 2 of the method : Using both information (« observed » estimates and professional catches) Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment for a fixed fishing season Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Model ? Dependent variable : rate of exploitation Explanatory variables : catches + environmental variables Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment Professional catches with push-sieves « observed » biomass Data concerning the same glass eel run !!

 Model : glm( Rate ~ TurbCod + Catches^ TideCod+ FlowCod * Moon+catches*Moon) ◦ Gamma distribution (with canonical link = inverse) ◦ Coded explanatory variables : Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment TurbCodTideCodFlowCod 1 if <13 NTU 2 otherwise. 1 if <60, 3 > 86 2 otherwise 1 if <250 m 3 /s, 3 > 400 m 3 /s 2 otherwise Degree of freedomDeviance Residual Degree of freedomF valuePr(F) NULL31 TurbCod19, ,7460,001 Catches^0,67813,185296,2370,024 TideCod20,939270,9190,419 FlowCod:Moon87,044191,7240,168 Catches:Moon31,295160,8450,489 With 32 observations…

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer « cleaned » values + A variability associated to each predicted value of the rate of exploitation ! Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment Values >100 or < 0 Predicted rate of exploitation <1,5% and catches >100kg tide 600m 3 /s

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Smoothed biomass (by gaussian kernels) Predicted biomass + erreur « observed » biomass + error of prediction Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment With a estimated standard error around 7 T

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Glass eels recruitment for a fixed season ??? Known for every night (see before)unknown Hyp : mean value between two consecutive nights Fishing season Catckes with push- sieves in kg Total catches in kg Biomass in kg Rate of exploitation of push-sieves Glass eels recruitment in kg Overall rate of exploitation 1998/1999 1,655 ~ 6,000 28, %53, % 1999/2000 4,579 ~15,000 96, %181,3548.3% 2000/2001 1,446 1,983+F 15, %32, / ,395+F 20, %43, / ,594+F 3, %6, /2004 1,093 2,969 8, %17, % 2004/2005 1,398 7,183 27, %59, % 2005/ ,531 7, %15, % average 1,50226,070 7,85%51,240 median 1,24618,050 7,3%38,149 Step 1 : In situ scientific surveys… Sampling protocol and data Statistical method for estimation of « observed » glass eels biomass Results and discussion Step 2 : Using professional catches… Estimate of seasonal glass eels biomass migrating by night Estimate of glass eels recruitment

 Need to explicit the precision of each estimates at each step of the calculus.  The method is adaptable to other estuary but with the search of a model…  But the level of seasonal biomass is realistic !! Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Conclusions and perspectives…

Colloque ASP - Boulogne sur Mer Thanks to the numerous scientists and crew members who conducted the experimental campaigns because our analysis is based on their hard work !!!