NEW GLOBAL MIGRATION REGIME: SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR AUSTRALIA by Graeme Hugo University Professorial Research Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Presentation to Year 12 Geography Night 25 August 2008

Outline of Presentation Introduction A New Global Migration Regime How Does Migration Influence Development? The Implications for “Destination Countries” like Australia Conclusion

On 14 and 15 September 2006, high-level representatives of all States Members of the United Nations gathered in the General Assembly to explore one of migration’s most promising aspects: its relationship to development. The potential for migrants to help transform their native countries has captured the imaginations of national and local authorities, international institutions and the private sector. There is an emerging consensus that countries can cooperate to create triple wins, for migrants, for their countries of origin and for the societies that receive them.

The New International Migration Increased scale and complexity Virtually all nations influenced Transnationalism replaced permanent settlement as dominant paradigm Increased involvement of women Increasing significance of south-north migration A bifurcation in attitudes toward skilled and unskilled migrants Overlapping of permanent and temporary migration Development of a migration industry Increasing scale and importance of diaspora Countries should not be seen as only immigration or emigration countries

Number of Chinese travelling abroad for business and tourism and total number of outbound trips from China, Source: Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 2004, p. 30; Asia Times Online, 9 February 2006

Persons Living Outside Country of Birth (United Nations) 1960 – 76 million 2000 – 175 million 2005 – 191 million 10 percent of MDC population 1.4 percent of LDC population

International Migration Between Less Developed and More Developed Countries Source: United Nations Population Division, Trends in the Migrant Stock, The 2005 Revision

Persons born in “South” Nations Enumerated in OECD Nations at the 2000 Round of Censuses Source: OECD data base on immigrants and expatriates

Region of Birth of Foreign-born in OECD Countries, 2000 Source: Dumont and Lemaitre 2005

Increased Involvement of Women 49 percent of migrants 10 percent of refugees, 75 percent with children High level of occupational specialisation High vulnerability to exploitation Special contexts, e.g. marriage migration Complex nexus with changing role of women

Drivers of International Migration – The 3 Ds Demography Development Democracy Evidence of Widening Differentials (GCIM)

Facilitated by … Cheapening of international transport Information and communication technology Proliferation of networks Development of international migration industry Internationalisation of labour markets

Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006

Why is there an Increased Focus on Migration and Development? Increased international migration Shift in flow to south-north migration Hyper connectivity of transnational communities Increased focus on positive effects of migration in origin areas

Migration and Development Discourse Until recently dominated by brain drain considerations Loss of human capital, constraint on development Loss of key groups needed for wellbeing

New Orthodoxy World Bank, Asian Development Bank, DFID, USAID Human capital not effectively used at home Migrants can contribute significantly to development at home A complex two way relationship

Brain Drain 88 percent of OECD immigrants from LDCs have secondary or higher education Loss of human capital Philippines – one third of college graduates outside the country Loss of the “brightest and the best”

Physicians per 100,000 People, Source: Human Development Report 2005

Australian Medical Workforce (2001) 5.7 percent born in Africa/Middle East 16 percent born in Asia 32.9 percent overseas-born in 2006

Nexus Between Student Migration and Brain Drain 2 percent of 100 million students outside country of birth US – 586,000 Increasing significance of other countries International flow of fees/costs US$30 billion Increasingly immigration policies of north countries designed to facilitate student migration and subsequent permanent settlement

Australia ,895 of 123,424 immigrants were already in Australia 16,485 of 123,424 “immigrants” students who applied for and received permanent residence within Australia More than half of skilled migrants had an Australian qualification

Australia: Overseas Students Transferring to Permanent Residence by Country of Citizenship, Source: DIMIA unpublished data

More Complex Discourse Some human capital is not efficiently used in poor countries Diaspora can have positive developmental impacts Filipino econometric studies However also clear negative effects of loss of some skilled groups, especially medical workforce

The Diaspora and Development in Origin Countries Remittances A source of FDI A bridgehead for exports Technology transfer Social remittances Return migration

National Diasporas in Relation to Resident National Populations Source: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Dimzon, 2005; Asian Migration News, January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005;

The Development of Diaspora Transnational communities: long history Facilitated by modern ICT and transport Increased in size by large scale migration Countries of origin increasingly have diaspora policies

Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Economies Source: World Bank 2007b

Effects of Remittances Investment Multiplier effects Received at grass roots Employment creation Poverty reduction

Asia: Remittances in $US and as a share of GDP by Country, 2004 Source: World Bank, 2006; World Bank Key Development Data and Statistics Online Database, Asian Migration News, 2005; Firdausy, 2005; Chalamwong, 2006, Asian Development Bank, 2005

Remittances Sent by Overseas Vietnamese to Vietnam Source: State Bank of Vietnam, Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 January 2003, 48; Gundzik 2005; Voice of Vietnam News, 22 December 2004

Negative Effects? Impacts of sudden disasters Putting off needed structural adjustment “Dutch Disease”

Mobilising Remittances Neglect in government planning Taxation of Remittances Innovative programs in Mexico

Links Between Migration, Trade and Investment FDI strongly influenced by diaspora -China -India The diaspora as bridgeheads Migration leads to an increase in trade (Canada)

Networks Knowledge and information transfer Different types of networks -Family -Professional -Business Flow of “social” remittances

“… in the current area of globalisation, global links may be more important than the human capital “stock” in a particular country. A professional thus may contribute more value to the home country by residing overseas than returning permanently” (Westcott, 2005, 268)

Return Migration Permanent migration Temporary Brain circulation

Australia: Permanent Departures of Overseas-born Persons by Country of Intended Residence, 1993 to 2003 Source: DIMIA unpublished data Overseas-born

How Can the New Migration Facilitate Development? Sending Country Policy Receiving Country Policy International Co-operation

Policy in Sending Countries Varied policies Changing perception of diaspora Policies to engage diaspora, cultural and language maintenance Setting up formal organisations Remittances FDI

Policy in Sending Countries (Cont.) Engagement in national life – voting Assisting network formation Encouragement of joint economic and research co-operation Taxation possibilities

Receiving Country Policies Need for “Development Friendly Migration Policy” Facilitating remittances Encouraging circular migration Encouraging transnationalism Encouraging cultural and language maintenance Compensating brain drain countries Portability of entitlements The diaspora as a vehicle for development assistance? Accepting a range of migrants – permanent and temporary, skilled and unskilled etc.

Policy in Receiving Countries - Constraints OECD nations espouse development assistance goals Development goals can be perceived as in opposition to immigration goals Siloization of government Neo-liberalism of governments Ageing populations Competition arguments Human rights arguments

Australia: Combining Immigration Development Assistance and Security Considerations? Potential use of unskilled temporary workers. Is there a mismatch between labour needs and current immigration policies? Facilitating transnationalism and multiculturalism A security dividend? The role of remittances Investments in education systems of origin nations Can we have a “development friendly” immigration policy while preserving the economic, social and demographic contributions of migration policy?

Conclusion International migration will continue to increase Need for recognition that migration is inevitable and a permanent feature of international relationships Can it be harnessed as an engine for development? Need for more evidence based media reporting and policy development Need for change in policy orientations New concepts of national population Need for international co-operation Role of research in evidence-based decision making