1 Forecast for Winter George H. Taylor, CCM October, 2011

2 Current Conditions

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4 Long-term Trends in Tropical Pacific Indicators

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9 In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and In terms of MEI, the best matches were 1967,1989, 1996, 1999 and Overall the best match was Analog Matches

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There’s no sunshine in the skies today It’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of May I guess you say, why do I get wet today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this year And lowland flooding, baby, is something to fear I guess you say, why is there a flood today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LA Drought in Arizona, and all along the Southern Way I guess you say, why is it so dry today? La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña…. There’s no sunshine in the skies today, it’s La Niña, It might even flood today, La Niña Talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout La Niña

19 Bottom Line Rather benign early season, with very active December - February Above-average mountain snowfall for the winter; average ski season opening date Significant precipitation totals with possibility of flooding Cooler than average temperatures Slightly below average precipitation Good chance of low elevation snow (esp. January)

20 In a nutshell: A slow start but making up for lost time!