The micro-geography of UK demographic change Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds understanding population trends and processes Small Research Grant: Oct 05 to Sep 07 ESRC RES for 40%

The micro-geography of UK demographic change Aim Quantify, map & analyse changes in population size and social characteristics occurring in UK’s small geographical areas between the 1991 and 2001 Censuses Population change Which demographic components account for change? Balance between natural change & migration change Is the population ageing evenly across space? Area characteristics change Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Has health improved in areas now less deprived?

Technical challenges: consistency across UK & over time 1991 & 2001 mid-year small area populations not comparable To estimate a 1991 base population: Adjust populations to mid-year & a consistent geography Allow for changed view of 1991 Census undercount To calculate area deprivation: Create consistent variables by geography & definition Ensure 1991 & 2001 measures are comparable For ‘small areas’ 7,958 wards in England, 881 wards in Wales 1,010 postal sectors in Scotland, 582 wards in Northern Ireland

Re-estimating mid-year 1991 populations

population change Population change Natural change Net migration

population change Change cf. natural change Change cf. net migration 1991 & 2001 Populations

OPCS classification: districts London Metropolitan Cities Non-Metropolitan Cities Industrial Districts Districts with New Towns Resort, Port & Retirement Accessible & Remoter Urban Accessible & Remoter Rural Deprivation: wards Categorised into quintiles Hierarchical Stratification Ward deprivation within area type

population change Population change

components of change Population change

Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Use of area characteristics measures Cross-sectional research Allocation of funding Business marketing Deprivation relationship with health Time-series: deprivation measures Are areas becoming more or less deprived over time? Has health improved in areas now less deprived?

Classifying of areas Problems when comparing areas at two or more time points Input variables Availability, definition and categorisation Applicability over time Geography Boundary change Method of classification Applicability over time Need to compare like with like & need consistency of information, geography & method Official IMDs are time-point & country specific

Calculating comparable deprivation Townsend Index: comparable across UK & time Input variables for: c.10,400 small areas in both 1991 & 2001, deprivation relative to National 1991 & 2001 average National rates UnemploymentNo car Non-home owners Overcrowding Avg Example area unemployment

Deprivation change Townsend scores: easing overall England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland

Deprivation change Townsend Index: comparable across UK & time

Deprivation & mortality Standardised Ratio

Deprivation & LLTI Standardised Ratio

Deprivation change & mortality Standardised Ratio

Deprivation change & LLTI Standardised Ratio

Summary: change Population In London, population gain in more deprived areas, due to natural change gain Metropolitan areas natural change gain, but losing population due to net migration loss Less deprived areas elsewhere growing, largely through net migration gain Biggest growth in accessible urban & rural areas Deprivation Relative deprivation eased during the decade Mortality & LLTI relate more strongly to deprivation than to larger area type with mortality improving over the decade Generally, areas have better health when becoming less deprived

UPTAP-related aspects First funded research, managing this to ‘end of award’ Networking & community 3 UPTAP annual meetings; 11 presentations during & 6 after funding period 1 paper published; 2 in revision; 2 in preparation; many ideas UPTAP Research Findings (yep, one day, Stillers!), UPTAP book Other researchers using data outputs (e.g. Champion, Dorling, Rowan, Adams) Ongoing work on UPTAP(2) large grant understanding population trends and processes Small Research Grant: Oct 05 to Sep 07 ESRC RES for 40%