SECC Partners Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling,

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Presentation transcript:

SECC Partners Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment University of Georgia – climate, extension, crop modeling University of Auburn – extension, economics, insurance University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources

SECC Climate Vision Facilitate the effective use of climate information and forecasts in areas of agriculture, forestry, and water resource management in the Southeast United States.

SECC Climate Goals Better understand and predict climate variability, including extremes, extreme events, and uncertainties, in the Southeast. Develop products and services which most effectively communicate pertinent climate information to the end user.

SECC Climate Program Structure Table 1. Climate Activities Climate Activity AUFSU UFUGAUMUAH ARSCO State Climate Officexxx Agriculture or other Weather Network xxx Climate Extension Specialistxxxx Climate Research x x x xxx

SECC Climate Research Objectives Explore other modes of climate variability in the Southeast U.S. Focus on variability of extremes and extreme events. Development, validation and linkage of Global/regional spectral climate model with crop and hydrologic models. Development of stochastic weather generators. Refinement and development of climate forecast products and their presentation to the end users.

SECC Climate Data Infrastructure Web delivery of climate information and forecast products. Automate data ingest and data base updates. Include near real-time data and products Inclusion of data from agricultural weather networks. Explore the use of remotely sensed data such as nexrad and satellite.

The Philosophy of Climate Services By: Jim O’Brien State Climatologist of Florida The Florida State University Tallahassee, FL (850)

What is Climate Services? Climate Services is the delivery of knowledge of past and future climate variability to users.

What are standard variables? The standard “weather variables” are: 1)Temperature - Hourly, daily, maximum and minimum, monthly, annual 2)Atmospheric Pressure 3)Rainfall - Hourly, daily, monthly, etc., rainfall rates 4)Humidity - Specific humidity, relative humidity, wet- bulb temperature, etc. 5)Winds - Wind speed and direction, wind components Most clients need derived information. EXAMPLES:

Wind Climatology

Probabilistic Climate Forecasts

Impact Freezes of the last century Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1961 Neutral Jan 1977 El Nino Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral * High Impact

ENSO and Florida Freeze Probabilites

Extended Freeze Events

First Lessons Learned Concise information Simple and easy to understand Timely and up to date Local information (county scale) Comes from a trusted source - partnership with extension Historical context

More Lessons Learned Traditional climate variables not always meaninful Return rate low Repeat exposure aids understanding Users unable to make quick conclusions Information needs to be interpreted No real entry or starting point

Climate Outlooks Quarterly, focus on next 3-6 months Simple language “No forecast” does not mean “no information” Highlights seasonal issues or threats No more that 2 pages

Success of Climate Outlooks Media ready All or parts can be pasted into extension newsletters AgClimate hit rates spike on release of the outlooks Provide natural link for our partners at FAWN and GAEMN Great feedback from growers, agents, and extension specialists

Crop- specific Outlooks Released at critical times for the given commodity Direct input from extension specialists Gives management options, not recommedations Peanut Sept. 05, Mar. 06 Ed Jowers, John Beasly, William Birdsong Citrus Sept. 05John Jackson Winter Pasture Sept. 05Doug Mayo

Success of Crop-Specific Outlooks Participation by extension specialists fosters ownership Widely included in county or area newletters Continued engagement keep climate issues in the forefront

ANY QUESTIONS?