One Hundred Years of Arctic Surface Temperature Variation Fyfe 1, von Salzen 1, Gillett 1, Arora 1, Flato 1 & McConnell 2 1 Canadian Centre for Climate.

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Presentation transcript:

One Hundred Years of Arctic Surface Temperature Variation Fyfe 1, von Salzen 1, Gillett 1, Arora 1, Flato 1 & McConnell 2 1 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis 2 Desert Research Institute, Reno NV

What are roles of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in Arctic surface temperature variation since 1900? Main Question

Fyfe et al. (2013)

Piecewise linear trends

Fyfe et al. (2013)

SO 4 deposition on Greenland Fyfe et al. (2013)

SO 4 concentration at Alert

Fyfe et al. (2013) Role of volcanic emissions

Fyfe et al. (2013) Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Anthropogenic and volcanic emissions explain most of the Arctic temperature variation since 1900 Main Result Fyfe et al. (2013)

One Hundred Years of Arctic Surface Temperature Variation Fyfe 1, von Salzen 1, Gillett 1, Arora 1, Flato 1 & McConnell 2 1 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis 2 Desert Research Institute, Reno NV

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