Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Practical exercises for student scientists Liz Westby U.S. Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory May 27, 2015

Eruption Forecasting: An Art Based in Science  Volcanoes are complex systems  Interplay of variables (magma composition(s), volume, pressure, temperature, stress, strain)  Largely unseen but for “snap-shots” from volcano monitoring instruments  Decisions must be made  Consequences can be serious 2

Eruption Forecasting: Tools of the Trade  Seismicity: earthquakes, harmonic tremor, the root of most volcano monitoring networks  GPS: resolves surface motion of a few centimeters or greater that occur over timescales of weeks to years  Tilt: resolves small-magnitude, short-timescale surface deformation  Volcanic Gases: composition, concentration, emission rate  Field Observations (web cameras): 24-hour visibility during good weather 3

Mount St. Helens Science & Learning Center Online Activities Testing phase Age: middle school, curious public Activities: self-guided, worksheet-driven activities for seismicity, deformation, gas emissions, and forecasting of an eruption of Mount St. Helens 4

Volcano Seismicity ( PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES PART 2: ANALYZING SEISMIC DATA Not all earthquakes in volcanic areas indicate an approaching eruption. 5

Volcano Deformation ( PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO DEFORMATION PART 2. DEFORMATION MONITORING PART 3. MEASURE TILT PART 4. ANALYZE TILT DATA 6

Volcanic Gas Emissions ( PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO VOLCANIC GASES PART 2. MONITORING GAS EMISSIONS PART 3. ANALYZE GAS DATA 7

Forecasting an Eruption ( PART 1. EXAMINE MONITORING DATA SEISMICITY DEFORMATION GAS EMISSIONS PARTS 2 AND 3. SET THE ALERT LEVEL PART 4. INFORM THE PUBLIC ABOUT HAZARDS 8

Monday Morning Meeting at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory Monday Morning Meeting at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/48383.html) Age: High school to university level Activity: Students examine graphs and role- play to collaboratively assess volcanic threats and decide on a future course of action. Resources: Worksheets, grading rubric, data on NAGT web site and can be distributed via hard copy. VEPP web site under development. Activity tracks events leading up to the July 21, 2007 eruption when a small fissure eruption occurred on the east flank of Pu'u 'Ō'ō. 9

July 21, 2007 Fissure Eruption 10

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater Seismic Data (3 maps and graphs)

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater GPS Data (3 maps and graphs)

Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater Tilt Data (4 maps and graphs)

July 4, 2007 July 8, 2007 Webcam (18 images)

Monday Morning Meeting Exercise Students divided into 4 “expert” groups: (1) tilt; (2) GPS; (3) seismic; (4) webcam. Worksheet questions drive the discussion. Goal: each group formulates hypotheses about the current and possible future behavior based on specific data.  Expert Groups: Students divided into 4 “expert” groups: (1) tilt; (2) GPS; (3) seismic; (4) webcam. Worksheet questions drive the discussion. Goal: each group formulates hypotheses about the current and possible future behavior based on specific data. Students divided into interdisciplinary groups, with each new group containing at least one of the experts. Each expert talks for ~1 minute to tell the rest of the group what their data are used for, advantages/disadvantages and their interpretation. Goal: Develop an interpretation of what is happening that satisfies all data types.  Interdisciplinary Groups: Students divided into interdisciplinary groups, with each new group containing at least one of the experts. Each expert talks for ~1 minute to tell the rest of the group what their data are used for, advantages/disadvantages and their interpretation. Goal: Develop an interpretation of what is happening that satisfies all data types. Each group presents their findings to the rest of the class and the Scientist-in-Charge. Goal: evaluate the findings, discuss the evidence and uncertainties, decide on course of action.  Report-back: Each group presents their findings to the rest of the class and the Scientist-in-Charge. Goal: evaluate the findings, discuss the evidence and uncertainties, decide on course of action. ptional written report or students prepare a volcano update.  Written Report: Optional written report or students prepare a volcano update. 15

Recent Kilauea Status Reports, Updates, and Information Releases HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE U.S. Geological Survey Tuesday, May 26, :07 AM HST (Tuesday, May 26, :07 UTC) This report on the status of Kilauea volcanic activity was prepared by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). All times are Hawai`i Standard Time. KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010) 19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Activity Summary: Seismicity rates are currently normal beneath Kīlauea's summit and deflationary tilt is ongoing. At the East Rift Zone eruption site, surface flows continue to be active within about 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of Puʻu ʻŌʻō. Summit Observations: Seismicity rates beneath Kīlauea's summit, upper East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone were at normal, background levels during the past day. The summit tiltmeter network has recorded minor deflationary tilt at all stations beginning at about 1800 on May 24. Sulfur dioxide emission rates ranged between 3,800-8,500 tonnes/day for the week ending May 22. Puʻu ʻŌʻō Observations: The tiltmeter on the north flank of Puʻu ʻŌʻō continues to show no significant tilt, and seismicity rates have been normal. The sulfur dioxide emission rate from all East Rift Zone vents was about 360 tonnes/day when last measured on May 19, June 27th Lava Flow Observations: Webcam images and satellite imagery continue to show surface flow activity from several breakouts in an area northeast Puʻu ʻŌʻō. All surface flows are occurring within 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of Puʻu ʻŌʻō.

Eruption Forecasting: Student Outcomes  Increase understanding of volcanoes and volcano monitoring techniques  Application of critical thinking, interpretation based on evidence and reasoning, handling of uncertainties and ambiguities, decision-making, leadership  Collaboration, discussion, presentation  Growth in personal knowledge about volcanoes and real-world readiness for the next eruption 17

Resources  USGS Volcano Hazards Program (volcanoes.usgs.gov/)  USGS Volcano Monitoring Data Links (volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/data/index.php)  USGS–Cascades Volcano Observatory (volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/)  USGS–Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (hvo.wr.usgs.gov/)  Mount St. Helens Institute (  NAGT Teaching Resources – Monday Morning Meeting (nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/ html) 18