Chile earthquake and tsunami earthquaketsunamiearthquaketsunami MagnitudeMagnitude 8.8; hypocenter 21 miles Magnitude Tsunami

Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami

Changed the planet’s axis by three inches Large mass of rock moved Large mass of rock moved Nearby island uplifted 2 feet Nearby island uplifted 2 feet Steep sloping subduction zone Steep sloping subduction zone Each day should be 1.26 microsecond shorter (hundredth of a second) Each day should be 1.26 microsecond shorter (hundredth of a second) Chile: M 8.8 earthquake

Chile: aftershocks Magnitudes: 6, 5.1, 4.9 TsunamiTsunami warning Tsunami

Predicting volcanic eruptions and reducing the risk

What can scientists do to reduce volcanic risk?

Mitigation: measures to reduce risk Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard maps Hazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and practiced Emergency plan in place and practiced Education of government officials and public Education of government officials and public

This process begins with the gathering of scientific information

Understanding the Past The eruptive history is very important. The eruptive history is very important. Ancient volcanic deposits are dated to determine frequency of eruptions. Ancient volcanic deposits are dated to determine frequency of eruptions.

An understanding of the potential hazard

Understanding of hazards: provide definition and potential location People will evacuate when there is an understanding of the potential destruction from a hazard. People will evacuate when there is an understanding of the potential destruction from a hazard.

Successful prediction of Mt. Pinatubo, 1991 The Philippine government used volcanic hazard videos and other information to educate the public The Philippine government used volcanic hazard videos and other information to educate the public Successful evacuation Successful evacuation

Disaster Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Columbia, 1985 The people of Armero did not understand the potential hazards of a lahar The people of Armero did not understand the potential hazards of a lahar Government officials knew about the potential hazard Government officials knew about the potential hazard 23,000 fatalities 23,000 fatalities

Hazard Map of Mt. Rainier: map indicates previous lahar and pyroclastic flows Results: where one would expect these hazards to occur in the future Map ancient volcanic deposits.

Lassen Peak, Hazard Map Vents that have produced eruptions Vents that have produced eruptions Yellow- lava flow zones Yellow- lava flow zones Gold- ash fall zone Gold- ash fall zone Orange-combined Orange-combined Pink-mudflows Pink-mudflows Aqua- floods Aqua- floods

MonitoringMonitoring Precursors Monitoring Physical changes are known to precede a volcanic eruption. Physical changes are known to precede a volcanic eruption. Name changes in volcanic activity. These changes are called precursors. Name changes in volcanic activity. These changes are called precursors. Seismicity Deformation Snow melt Water levels and chemistry Gas emission Small eruptions

Monitoring methods

Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the volcano’s surface Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the volcano’s surface Tiltmeters Tiltmeters Global Positioning Stations (GPS) Global Positioning Stations (GPS) Radar interferometry- satellite Radar interferometry- satellite Monitoring Volcanoes Ground Deformation

Deformation Direct measurements are made when the volcano is increasing in precursor activity Direct measurements are made when the volcano is increasing in precursor activity Tiltmeter Global Positioning Satellites record vertical and horizontal movement of the volcano

Monitoring Volcanoes Seismicity Magma fractures cooler rock causing earthquakes Magma fractures cooler rock causing earthquakes An increase in the number of earthquakes may indicate an imminent eruption An increase in the number of earthquakes may indicate an imminent eruption Mt. St. Helens

Seismometer Seismic waves move through the crust and reach the seismometer Seismic waves move through the crust and reach the seismometer The seismometer records the strength and type of movement The seismometer records the strength and type of movement The information is sent to a station and recorded through radio waves or satellite communication The information is sent to a station and recorded through radio waves or satellite communication Seismometer placed near Mt. St. Helens

Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera Ground deformation Ground deformation Resurgent dome grew is 80 centimeters from the late 1970’s to 1999 Resurgent dome grew is 80 centimeters from the late 1970’s to 1999 minor subsidence since 1999 minor subsidence since 1999

Seismicity averages 5-10 earthquakes per day since 1999 Seismicity averages 5-10 earthquakes per day since 1999 Occasionally swarms of earthquakes cause alarm ( /week) Occasionally swarms of earthquakes cause alarm ( /week) generally less than M=2 generally less than M=2 Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera

Mt. St. Helens Seismic activity increased in 2005 Seismic activity increased in 2005 Increased monitoring of activity Increased monitoring of activity Seismicity Seismicity Visual inspections Visual inspections Gas emissions Gas emissions

Mt. St. Helens Alert level 2: activity increasing that lead to a hazardous volcanic eruption Alert level 2: activity increasing that lead to a hazardous volcanic eruption Aviation level orange- ash to 30,000 feet, traveling 100 miles Aviation level orange- ash to 30,000 feet, traveling 100 miles

Seismicity With more than three stations the initial rupture of the earthquake is located With more than three stations the initial rupture of the earthquake is located Outlining the size and location of the magma chamber Outlining the size and location of the magma chamber

Mt. St Helens Green dots represent activity in the past 24 hours. Green dots represent activity in the past 24 hours.

Gas Emissions: as magma ascends, decompression melting releases gas Sulfur dioxide cloud, three hours after eruption Direct and indirect measurements Direct and indirect measurements Increase in gas emissions may indicate an imminent eruption Increase in gas emissions may indicate an imminent eruption

Mt. St. Helens Mt. St. Helens Volcanic watch

Carbon dioxide escape from the magma chamber Carbon dioxide escape from the magma chamber Associated with faults that act as pathways Associated with faults that act as pathways tons per day since tons per day since 1996 level remains the same level remains the same Horseshoe lake Horseshoe lake Monitoring the Long Valley Caldera

Gas Emissions Direct sampling is completed by collecting the gas in a liquid Direct sampling is completed by collecting the gas in a liquid Analysis is done at a laboratory Analysis is done at a laboratory

Composite satellite image of ash produced from Mt. Spur, Alaska over a one week period Satellite images can monitor movement of ash in the atmosphere. Ash abrades windows and can cause engine failure

Satellite sensors are able to detect increased temperatures before an eruption Satellite sensors are able to detect increased temperatures before an eruption Used for remote active volcanoes or if seismicity does not precede an eruption Used for remote active volcanoes or if seismicity does not precede an eruption Thermal Change indicates magma moving closer to the surface Pavlov Volcano, Alaska

Lahar Warning System System Sensors detect high frequency vibrations produced by lahars moving down a stream channel Sensors detect high frequency vibrations produced by lahars moving down a stream channel Sensors are placed downstream from volcano but upstream from population Sensors are placed downstream from volcano but upstream from population

Warning System System

Warning System Normal: Typical background activity; non-eruptive state Normal: Typical background activity; non-eruptive state Advisory: Elevated unrest above known background activity Advisory: Elevated unrest above known background activity Watch: Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity Watch: Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity Warning: Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent Warning: Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminent

Aviation Warning System Green: normal activity Green: normal activity Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated unrest Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated unrest Orange: heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume height) Orange: heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume height) Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere (specify ash plume height) Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere (specify ash plume height)

Educating the Public

Communication Most important : think of the disasters in the past 6 years

Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program

The primary purpose is to save lives in developing countries. The primary purpose is to save lives in developing countries. Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster Assistance Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster Assistance U.S. Agency for International Development U.S. Agency for International Development Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program

The Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program was developed after the 1985 eruption of Nevada del Ruiz. The Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program was developed after the 1985 eruption of Nevada del Ruiz. Since 1986, the response team organized and operated by the U.S.G.S. responds globally to eminent probable volcanic eruptions. Since 1986, the response team organized and operated by the U.S.G.S. responds globally to eminent probable volcanic eruptions. Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program Nevada del Ruiz lahar that killed people.

Communication to Public Increase in seismic activity in 1996 Increase in seismic activity in 1996 Alaska Alaska Prevent evacuation of 1,000 residents Prevent evacuation of 1,000 residents Prevent closing of fishing industry Prevent closing of fishing industry

The eruption of Rabaul, Papua New Guinea, September, Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption explained what occurred Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption explained what occurred Education of the local population through community groups Education of the local population through community groups Successful evacuation due to following the plan Successful evacuation due to following the plan

Real time monitoring

Successful Prediction Mount Pinatubo, 1991 Mount Pinatubo, 1991 Approximately 330,000 people evacuated prior to the eruption

Evaluation of Risk Zones of highest to lowest risk should be identified Zones of highest to lowest risk should be identified Urban planning should take in account the areas of highest risk Urban planning should take in account the areas of highest risk These areas should be evacuated first These areas should be evacuated first

Applying the Volcano Explosivity Index Applying the Volcano Explosivity Index Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7 Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7 Amount of property damage Amount of property damage Population Population This equates to the amount of risk This equates to the amount of risk Risk

Evaluation of Volcanic Risk United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization-UNESCO Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard) Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard) Value= # of lives, monetary goods in area Value= # of lives, monetary goods in area Vulnerability=% of lives or goods likely to be lost in a given event Vulnerability=% of lives or goods likely to be lost in a given event Hazard=based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index- VEI Hazard=based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index- VEI

Volcanic Explosivity Index Volume of material Volume of material Eruption column height Eruption column height Eruptive style Eruptive style How long the major eruptive burst lasted How long the major eruptive burst lasted Plinian: 5-7; 1993 Lascar Volcano, Chile Hawaiian: 0-2

Tambora eruption, 1815: VEI 7

Mt. Vesuvius produced a VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE. Mt. Vesuvius produced a VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE. Mt. Vesuvius Mt. Vesuvius There are now 3 million people living on and near this volcano. There are now 3 million people living on and near this volcano. Less than 1% chance for another eruption this size in the next 10 years Less than 1% chance for another eruption this size in the next 10 years High risk coefficient due to the high population density High risk coefficient due to the high population density Evaluation of Risk Mt. Vesuvius, Pliny

Vesuvius Erupts Computer simulations help understand which areas would be affected first Computer simulations help understand which areas would be affected first Those communities should be evacuated first Those communities should be evacuated first

Mt. Vesuvius, Areas of Risk Emergency plan assumes that there can be a 20 day warning

Without warning Estimated 15-20,000 casualties Estimated 15-20,000 casualties What do you think? What do you think? 1944 eruption

Mitigation Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard maps Hazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and practiced Emergency plan in place and practiced Education of government officials and public Education of government officials and public Communication clear between scientists, government officials and the public Communication clear between scientists, government officials and the public