2005-06 National Family Health Survey (NFHS-3) Marriage and Fertility

Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility Fertility preferences and ideal family size (c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare NFHS-3, India, 2005-06 2

2.7 At current fertility levels, a woman in India will have an average of 2.7 children during her lifetime Urban women have attained replacement fertility but rural women have on an average 0.9 children more than urban women. NFHS-3, India, 2005-06 3

Trends in Fertility by Residence

Fertility Differentials and Trend by Caste and Religion Muslim fertility is decreasing faster than Hindu fertility; thus, Hindu-Muslim fertility differentials are narrowing. Fertility of ST and OBC women has remained unchanged.

Just a Few Years of Education Leads to Substantial Reduction in Fertility TFR of women with No education – 3.6 < 5 years of education – 2.5 12+ years of education – 1.8 TFR of women from Lowest wealth quintile - 3.9 Second lowest wealth quintile – 3.2 Highest wealth quintile – 1.8 NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Total Fertility Rates for States INDIA Replacement or below replacement (10 states 35% population) TFR 2.1 – 2.4 (6 states 20% population) TFR 2.5 – 3.6 (9 states 19% population) TFR 3.7 – 4.0 (4 states 25% population) NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

States Classified by Level of TFR Fertility Level (TFR) States Replacement or below replacement (10 States with 35% India’s population) Tamil Nadu, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Sikkim, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi Between 2.1 and 2.4 (6 States with 20% India’s population) Tripura, West Bengal, Orissa, Gujarat, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, Between 2.5 and 3.6 (9 States with 19% India’s population) Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Manipur, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, MP, Rajasthan, Jharkhand Above 3.6 (4 States with 25% India’s population) Nagaland, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Fertility Decline in High Fertility States Between NFHS-2 and NFHS-3 in most of the states fertility declined. TFR in NFHS-2 > 3.0 States TFR increased Bihar (0.3) TFR remained same Nagaland TFR decreased Manipur (0.2), Uttar Pradesh (0.2) Madhya Pradesh (0.3), Rajasthan (0.6), Meghalaya (0.8) TFR in NFHS-2 < 3.0, but increased Jharkhand (0.6), Arunachal Pradesh (0.5), Tripura (0.4), Assam (0.1)

Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility Fertility preferences and ideal family size (c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare NFHS-3, India, 2005-06 10

12% of women 15-19 are already mothers Though, fertility in the 15-19 age group is decreasing, still, a substantial proportion of teenagers have begun childbearing. 12% of women 15-19 are already mothers 4% of women 15-19 are pregnant with their first child In total, 16% women 15-19 have begun childbearing NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Teenage Fertility by Age Percent who are pregnant or already mothers Age NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Teenage Fertility by State Women age 15-19 who are already mothers or pregnant at the time of the survey (%) States 5% or less Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi 25% or more Jharkhand (28%), Bihar (25%), West Bengal (25%) NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18 Age at Marriage Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18 NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Initiation of Childbearing Median age at first birth for women age 25-49: 19.8 (Total) 20.9 (Urban) 19.3 (Rural) Median age at first birth increased by half a year from 19.3 in NFHS-2 NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

State-Level Variation in Early Marriage of Women and Teenage Fertility Percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18 States Women age 15-19 already mothers or pregnant at time of survey (%) Less than 15% Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir 5% or less Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi 55% or more Jharkhand (61%), Bihar (60%), Rajasthan (57%) , Andhra Pradesh (55%) 25% or more Jharkhand (28%), Bihar (25%), West Bengal (25%) NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

In most states, the proportion of women marrying by age 18 is decreasing and median age at first birth is increasing, but in a few states, the reverse is happening. Since NFHS-2, In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, Sikkim, Tripura and West Bengal, the percentage of women age 20-24 married by age 18 has increased; and In Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Mizoram, and West Bengal, the median age at first birth has decreased NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Birth intervals In addition to their impact on fertility, birth intervals may also affect the health of mothers and their children Birth intervals are also strongly associated with child mortality: Children born too close to a previous birth are at increased risk of health problems and of dying at an early age NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Length of Birth Intervals 61% of non-first births occur less than 36 months after the preceding birth NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Levels, trends & differentials Determinants of fertility Fertility preferences and ideal family size (c) 2001 Hugh Rigby/CCP, Courtesy of Photoshare NFHS-3, India, 2005-06 20

Ideal Family Size and Composition 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 All persons Ever-married women NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

In the Majority of States, Ideal Family Size is Below 2.5: Ideal family size of women and men 2.5 to 2.9: Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh & Manipur Ideal family size of women and men 3.0- 3.9 Meghalaya, Mizoram & Nagaland NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Two-Child Family is Becoming a Norm Proportion of currently married women and men who want no more children Number of living children NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Son Preference among Women and Men Proportion of currently married women and men having 2 living children and wanting no more children The use of FP is governed by the family size preferences. Looking into NFHS-3 results we can say that two child norm is acceptable provided there is at least one son among these two children. The gap between blue and green bars indicate son preference. Though son preference persists, increasing proportion of women with 2 daughters are ready to stop after 2 children. NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Son Preference: Level and Trend Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and wanting no more children The use of FP is governed by the family size preferences. Looking into NFHS-3 results we can say that two child norm is acceptable provided there is at least one son among these two children. The gap between blue and green bars indicate son preference. Though son preference persists, increasing proportion of women with 2 daughters are ready to stop after 2 children.

Son Preference by State In states with replacement and below replacement-level fertility, son preference is low, but exceptions are Punjab and Maharashtra In states with TFR between 2.1 and 3 son preference is lower, but exceptions are Haryana, Uttaranchal, Jammu & Kashmir, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal

Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (Below Replacement Fertility states) Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and wanting no more children NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (Below Replacement Fertility states) Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and want no more children NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with 2 Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with 2.1< TFR <3.0) Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and wanting no more children NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Desire for No More Children by Number of Children (States with TFR >3) Proportion of currently married women having 2 living children and want no more children NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Wanted and Actual Fertility Rates TFR TFR 2.7 2.1 3.0 If unwanted fertility is averted, TFR will reach replacement level NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Key Findings The Indian woman, on average, bears 2.7 children in her lifetime Urban India has reached replacement-level fertility Ten states, comprising 35% of India’s population, have already reached replacement-level fertility; 6 more states with 20% population are nearing replacement-level fertility Early initiation of childbearing and shorter spacing of births are matters of concern NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

Key Findings, contd. For most couples, a two-child family is the norm Son preference, though reducing, still persists Unwanted fertility forms a sizeable part of actual fertility and averting that is the best way to achieve replacement fertility NFHS-3, India, 2005-06

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