Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Science Infusion 1.

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Presentation transcript:

Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Jack Kain Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Science Infusion 1

NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed - A unique forum for collaboration between researchers and practitioners… Two Main Program Areas… E xperimental W arning P rogram E xperimental F orecast P rogram 2

JDOP Pre-STORM NEXRAD IOT&E II VORTEX Early algorithms DOPLIGHT MAPS, COPS, QED, Pre-AWIPS WDSS AWIPS WDSS II, JPOL, COMET, IHOP, Dual Pol, TIMEX, STEPS, PAR, SHAVE, ProbWarn Late ’70s Establishing the “Culture of Collaboration” A glance at pioneering Collaborative Projects between NSSL and WFO-OUN…the incipient EWP branch of the HWT 3

Winter Weather Experiment Convection- Allowing WRF model forecasts Convection- Allowing ensembles Mesoscale Ensembles IHOP forecasting support Convective parameterization SPC Arrives…Spring Experiments begin… 2006 SE Arrival of the SPC… Spring Experiments… The EFP branch of the HWT 4

The annual Spring Experiment A 6-8 week experiment conducted each spring to evaluate emerging scientific concepts and tools in a simulated operational forecasting environment …Scenes from SE2008… 5

6 HWT-EFP Spring Experiment 2007 Participating Institutions: NOAA AgenciesUniversities - NCEP/AWC (2)- NWS/OUN- Albany-SUNY (2) - NCEP/EMC (3)- NWS/RAP- Arizona (2) - NCEP/HPC- NWS/SLC- Colorado State - NCEP/SPC (9)- NWS/SRH- Iowa State - NWS/BTV- OAR/NSSL (5)- North Carolina State (4) - NWS/LWX- OAR/GSD (3)- Oklahoma (2) - NWS/MAF- OAR/PSD- Penn State - NWS/OCWWS- Purdue (2) - UNC-Charlotte - York (Ontario) Gov’t Agencies - NCAR (5) - Environ. Canada (6) - UK Met Office - USRA (Huntsville) Private Sector - Merrill Lynch - FirstEnergy 6

: What do Forecasters need? Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… 7

Perform research, communicate results… : Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… 8

: Transfer technology… NCEP operational forecast NSSL parallel experimental forecast e.g., Establishing our own paradigm for science and technology infusion… 9

Establishing a “grass-roots” infusion paradigm… Publish results… At least 24 NSSL-SPC co- authored, refereed publications since

Tangible Operational Impacts Tornadic Supercells Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity “The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak 11

Questions??