Local and Regional Economic Analysis Tools

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
How the Fed controls the money supply? Recall: money supply = currency plus deposits at banks Decisions are made by FOMC –FOMC meets next Tuesday –markets.
Advertisements

Urban Economics 1 Dr. Adnan A. Alshiha.
PERFECT COMPETITION Economics – Course Companion
Chapter 5 Urban Growth. Purpose This chapter explores the determinants of growth in urban income and employment.
BUSINESS ECONOMICS Class 6 1 and 2 December, 2009.
Economic Analysis Objective of chapter: to discuss two levels of economic analysis in a market study. the local economic base analysis the macro base analysis.
Income and Expenditure
Circular Flow Model. The circular flow model is an economic model that illustrates the interdependence that exists between the different sectors operating.
Economic Base Analysis
1 Understanding Urban Growth Patterns Real Estate 690 Market Analysis for Real Estate Dr. Longhofer.
Macroeconomics. 1. Circular flow – the movement of output and income from one sector of the economy to another.
Economic Analysis Objective of chapter: Objective of chapter: to discuss two levels of economic analysis in a market study. to discuss two levels of economic.
Lebanon and Laclede County Retail Sales Analysis Anna Kovalyova Program Coordinator Lucy Zakharova Research Assistant.
Regional Analysis Methods Benchmarking, Location Quotients, Shift-share.
Chapter 10 Inflation and Unemployment
Economic Data & Analysis. What are we Trying to do?
Measuring GDP and Economic Growth
V PART The Core of Macroeconomic Theory.
27 chapter: >> Income and Expenditure Krugman/Wells
Chapter 13: Economic Performance Macroeconomics = study of any nation’s economy as a whole. Focus is on unemployment, inflation, growth, trade, and gross.
Chapter 10 Cities and Urban Economies
Lowry Model Pam Perlich URBPL 5/6020 University of Utah.
Impact Analysis Assessing the change in local economic activity as a result of some change in the community Some potential issues What if we build a new.
Input-Output Model Basics Tom Harris University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development MS 204 Reno, NV and Gerald A. Doeksen.
Project Planning and Capital Budgeting
Copyright © 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Aggregate Demand and Output in the Short Run.
© John Tribe 12 Income, employment and prices. © John Tribe.
1 Measuring Economic Aggregates and the Circular Flow of Income CHAPTER 7 © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning.
Economic Base Model Pam Perlich UBRPL 5/6020: Urban and Regional Planning Analysis University of Utah.
Perfect Competition *MADE BY RACHEL STAND* :). I. Perfect Competition: A Model A. Basic Definitions 1. Perfect Competition: a model of the market based.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2002 Week 8 Introduction to macroeconomics.
The labor is worthy of his hire. —The Gospel of St.Luke
Understanding Retail Trade Analysis by Al Myles, Economist and Extension Professor Department of Agriculture Economics Mississippi State University November.
Capter 16 Output and Aggregate Demand 1 Chapter 16: Begg, Vernasca, Fischer, Dornbusch (2012).McGraw Hill.
Income and Expenditure Chapter 11 THIRD EDITIONECONOMICS andMACROECONOMICS.
Fanning (2005), Ch 6 Economic Base Analysis Interpreting Local Employment Numbers.
1 of 33 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. CHAPTER OUTLINE 8 Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output The Keynesian Theory of Consumption Other Determinants.
In his classic "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" Keynes telling about two important things: If you find your income going up,
Output, growth and business cycles Econ 102. GDP Growth Countries: High savings rate have higher GDP/ cap. high population growth rates have low GDP/
6.02 Understand economic indicators to recognize economic trends and conditions Understand economics trends and communication.
AP Exam Review AP Macroeconomics MR. GRAHAM. 2 Unit 2: Measurement of Economic Performance (12-16%) Unit 2: Measurement of Economic Performance (12-16%)
September 14, Growth and Development of Cities: Week 4. Urban Economy URBS 310.
Managerial Economics Demand Estimation & Forecasting.
4.0 Understanding the Local Economy Exploring the Human Resources/Economic Development Connection Community Choices: Public Policy Education Program 8.
Income and Expenditure
EM 4103: Urban Planning II Lecture 8: Employment Analysis in Planning.
National Institute of Economic and Social Research Public Sector Output: Output Indicators and Welfare Indicators Martin Weale.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING. TOPICS Economic base model The multiplier effect Assumption Approach The location quotient methodology The shift and share.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Education Canada Chapter 6 Determination of National Income.
Inflation Report August Output and supply Chart 3.1 Measures of aggregate output based on latest ONS data (a) (a) Whole-economy output is the ONS.
Understanding Local Economies Goals To present export base theory as a model of the way a local economy works. To relate general export base theory to.
Population Analysis: Terminology Estimate Projection Forecast Plan.
Understanding Retail Trade Analysis by Al Myles, Extension Professor Department of Agriculture Economics Mississippi State University April 12, 2007.
Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run.
AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AND INFLATION Chapter 25 1.
2.13 The Balance of Payments on Current Account Why do countries trade with each other?
Think About What is economics? What is economics? What questions to economic geographers ask? What questions to economic geographers ask?
Market for Resources HouseholdsFirms Market for Goods and Services Wages, profits Land, Labor, Capitol Spending Goods And Services.
Output, growth and business cycles Econ 102. How does GDP change over time? GDP/cap in countries: The average growth rates of countries are different.
Employ marketing-information to develop a marketing plan.
CHAPTER NINE NOTES-AP I. WHAT DETERMINES GDP? A. THE NEXT TWO CHAPTERS FOCUS ON THE AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES MODEL. DEFINITIONS AND FACTS FROM PREVIOUS CHAPTERS.
Economic and Land Use Modeling David Levinson. Traditional Forecasting Model.
Aggregate Demand IB Economics Chapter 14. Learning Objectives At the end of this chapter you will be able to  Understand the meaning of aggregate demand.
Introductory Economics. Definition of Economics Unlimited wants and needs combined with limited resources results in scarcity. Therefore, Economics studies.
Chapter 3: Cost Estimation Techniques
A Basic Model of the Determination of GDP in the Short Term Chapter 16
The Aggregate Expenditures Model
An Explanation of the Measurement and Control of National Income
Presentation transcript:

Local and Regional Economic Analysis Tools Shift-share, Location Quotient and Economic Base Models Mustafa Dinc

The Purpose of the Module To provide local policymakers with simple and easy to use tools that will assist them in describing and documenting changes in their local economy in a way that enables them to make sound and informed decisions. Because in many developing countries, where data availability and analytical capacity is limited, simple methods and tools can become powerful decision making aids for local planners and analysts due to their relatively simple logic, analytic clarity and easily accessible data requirements.

Shift-Share Analysis The shift-share model examines economic change (i.e., growth or decline) in a region by decomposing it into three components: national share, industrial mix, and regional share. The variable so decomposed may be employment, income, output, population or a variety of other economic factors that are imbedded in different hierarchical levels.

Notation

National Share National share component measures the regional economic change that could have occurred if the region had grown at the same rate as the reference area, and generally refers to the national economy (for smaller regions such as counties it may refer to the state or province).

Industry Mix Industrial mix component measures the share of local economic change that can be attributed to the local area industry mix, and reflects the degree to which the local area specializes in industries that are fast or slow growing nationally. Thus, a region that contains a relatively large share of industries that are fast (slow) growing nationally will have a positive (negative) industry mix effect.

Regional Share Regional share component measures the change in a particular industry in the region due to the difference between the industry’s local growth (decline) rate and the industry’s reference area growth rate. This component indicates growth or decline in industries due to the local area’s competitive position in a given industry.

Total Shift Total shift is the sum of three components, which is the actual growth or decline in employment.

Shift-share Example

Shift-Share Results The results of shift share analysis can shed some light on the local area economy but obviously it is not enough to fully understand the real strength or weakness of the economy. The findings of shift-share should be supported by other methods. For example, it is very important to identify whether the large gainers or losers are export industries of the local area. These export industries are important to local economy for job creation.

Location Quotient The location quotient is a measure of an industry's concentration in an area relative to a reference area, which is generally the rest of the nation. It compares an industry's share of local employment with its share of national employment.

The Logic of Location Quotient If a location quotient equals to 1 then the industry's share of local employees is the same as the industry's share nationally. A location quotient greater than 1 means the industry employs a greater share of the local workforce than it does nationally, produces more goods and services than are consumed locally, which are exported. A location quotient less than 1 implies that the industry's share of local employment is smaller than its share of national employment.

Location Quotient Example

Change in Location Quotient Large location quotient that is declining, Large location quotient that is increasing, Small location quotient that is declining, Small location quotient that is increasing.

Economic Base Model The economic base technique is based on the assumption that the local economy can be divided into two very general sectors: a) basic (or non-local) sector and b) non-basic (or local) sector. Economic base theory asserts that the means of strengthening and growing the local economy is to develop and enhance the basic sector. The basic sector is therefore identified as the "engine" of the local economy and called as the economic base of the local economy.

Basic and Non-basic Sectors Basic is production for export outside the region Non-Basic is production of goods and services for consumption inside the region Population Dependent or Residentiary Total Economy = Basic + Non-Basic

Basic Sector Basic sector is made up of local businesses (firms) that are entirely dependent upon external factors. Local resource-oriented firms (like logging or mining) and manufacturing are usually considered to be basic sector firms because their fortunes depend largely upon non-local factors and they usually export their goods.

Basic Industries Agriculture Mining Tourism Federal government Manufacturing (partly)

Non-basic Sector The non-basic sector is composed of those firms that depend largely upon local business conditions. For example, a local grocery store sells its goods to local households, businesses, and individuals. Almost all local services are identified as non-basic because they depend almost entirely on local factors.

Non-basic Industries Retail, Commercial banking, Local government Local public schools Services

Base Multiplier An injection (export sales) increases income in the area by an amount greater than the sale. The method for estimating the impact of the basic sector upon the local economy is the base multiplier, which is the ratio of the total employment in year t to the basic sector employment in that year. It can also be defined as the employment multiplier that estimates the impact of local basic sector employment on overall employment growth.

Use of Multiplier Estimates and projections of the base multiplier allow analysts to calculate impacts. For example - if the basic multiplier for an area is two, this means that for every new job in the basic sector there will be an additional job created in the non-basic sector.

Economic Base Analysis Techniques Economic base theory assumes that all local economic activities can be identified as basic or non-basic. Firms that sell to both local and an export market must, therefore, be assigned to one of these sectors or some means of apportioning their employment to each sector must be employed.

Economic Base Analysis Techniques Means of assigning firms to basic and non-basic sectors: Survey Assumption or assignment Location quotient Minimum requirements Differential multipliers: multiple regression analysis

The Survey Method This is the most straightforward method, which is simply to ask businesses in the local area to specify how much of their revenues come from basic activities and to use their responses to accurately divide local business activities into basic and non-basic components. In practice, however, this is seldom done because it is the most expensive and time-consuming approach.

The Assumption Technique The assumption technique is the simplest and most easily performed economic base analysis technique. Since the goal is to allocate all local employment to basic or non-basic sectors, this technique literally "assumes" that certain industries are inherently basic sector jobs and others are non-basic sector jobs.

The Assumption Technique An industry may be assigned to basic or non-basic by assumption Mining is often assigned 100% to basic Local public schools are often assigned 100% to non-basic Most industries are both

The Assumption Technique

The Location Quotient Technique The location quotient technique determines the level of basic sector employment by comparing the local economy to the economy of a larger geographic unit like state or the entire nation, in the process attempting to identify specializations in the local economy. The location quotient is the most commonly utilized economic base analysis method.

The Location Quotient Technique Location quotients are calculated for all industries to determine whether or not the local economy has a greater share of each industry than expected when compared to a reference economy. If an industry has a greater share than expected of a given industry, then that "extra" industry employment is assumed to be basic because those jobs are above what a local economy should have to serve local needs.

Derivation of LQ-based Formulation Dividing by and rearranging terms Another way to estimate basic employment in industry i in region r is:

The Location Quotient Technique

The Minimum Requirements The minimum requirements technique compares local conditions with those of a sample of similarly sized regions for each industry. It assumes that the minimum shares region has just enough employment to satisfy local demand for that industry's goods and services. It follows that all other regions will have some basic sector employment because their share in that industry is greater than that in the "minimum shares region".

The Key Steps of Minimum Requirements Identify several similarly sized region for comparison; Identify a "minimum shares region" for each industry to determine the necessary level of non-basic employment for each industry for these regions; Calculate basic sector employment from this minimum share.

Minimum Requirements Example

Minimum Requirements Example

Caution with Minimum Requirements Very specific selection criteria for comparison areas should be identified and a large enough sample of comparison areas should be used. If over a certain number of cities or regions are included in the selected set, all regions will be exporting and none may be importing. The level of aggregation of the data is important. If the data used are defined in a fine level of detail, this may reduce local needs to near zero and make almost all production for export.

Differential Multipliers: Multiple Regression Analysis This approach, which is much less known and used in estimating basic sector employment and multipliers, is to fit a multiple regression equation to regional data. E = c + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + b3 X3,.....+ bn Xn. where E represents employment, c is a constant, and the X terms are export employment in industries, the multipliers are 1+ bi for each sector.

Economic Base Projection Techniques Once the local economy has been understood in more depth, it is necessary to look toward the future. Is it possible to make projections about the local economy? Constant-share projection technique: in this technique it is assumed that the local economy will have a constant share of region's activity for individual industries into the future. Shift-share projection technique: in this technique it is assumed that the share of local economy will change and it will be necessary to add a "shift" factor to the equation in an attempt to account for the movement of jobs into or out of the local economy due to factors affecting the local economy.

Assumptions (Shortcomings) of Models The regional technology is similar to the reference area (nation), Regional labor is as productive as its national counterparts, Regional demand patterns are similar to national averages, There is no international trade or cross-hauling.

Productivity Adjustment If local industry is more productive, less labor is required to produce each unit of output. If the local industry is more productive than that of the nation, the degree of specialization in the industry is understated.

Consumption Adjustment If local area consumes a greater amount of the output of the industry per employee of the industry, the exports are overstated. Replacing total employment ratio with population ratio or personal income ratio may partially address this problem.

National Export Adjustment This location quotient approach assumes a closed economy - no national exports of products. If the nation is a net exporter in industry I: The method overstates the local area’s consumption of the product of industry i and. The method understates the local area’s basic employment in the industry.

Cross-hauling Adjustment It is assumed that there is no importing of products from a basic industry. Cross-hauling (the importing of products for local consumption in an export industry) leads to: An overstatement of the local area’s consumption of the product of industry i and. An underestimate of the local area’s basic employment in the industry.