Oregon’s Likely Future Climate Predicted Rainfall Changes in Oregon PNW rainfall will be about the same or a little higher Source: Climate Impacts Group,

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Presentation transcript:

Oregon’s Likely Future Climate

Predicted Rainfall Changes in Oregon PNW rainfall will be about the same or a little higher Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington

Predicted Temperature Changes in Oregon PNW temperatures will increase Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington

Sea Level Changes Sea level will likely increase

Climate-related Changes in Terrestrial Coastal Systems

Source: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Scientific Consensus on Impacts on the PNW from future climate change

Impacts depend on where you live on the coast, natural characteristics and influence of coastal development.

Potential Impacts: Increased coastal erosion. High tide inundation of very low-lying coastal margins. Episodic flooding of higher coastal & estuarine margins. Salinisation of adjacent rivers and streams and landward intrusion of saline groundwater.

Potential Impacts: Drainage problems in adjacent low-lying areas. Loss of intertidal areas and beaches where hard beach protection exists. Increased rates and frequency of wave run-up and overtopping of natural and man made coastal defenses.

Climate-related Changes in Marine Ecosystems

If the predictions are right - Ocean Ecosystems Intensified upwelling? Increased ocean temperature? Increased ocean acidity? Changes in plankton & food chains? Harley et al. 2006

Changes in types of fish and their abundance California current ecosystem has changed often in the past Any changes due to predicted warming will be difficult to detect because of high natural variability Changes that do occur will affect commercial fisheries and recreational fisheries Norton and Mason 2005 Sea Temperature Anomaly Upwelling anomaly

Impacts on PNW Salmon

Salmon - Loss of Habitat OR will lose more habitat than WA or ID Trout habitat less impacted than salmon habitat because salmon are restricted to warmer waters by dams and other barriers Salmon Habitat Lost in OR, ID, WA ISAB Climate Change Report 2007 By 2030 OR could lose15% of its salmon habitat By 2090 OR could lose 45% of its salmon habitat

Salmon - Ocean survival Source: Peterson et al Warmer waters reduce salmon survival: Decreased food supply Higher metabolic rates and less growth Increased migration distances Increased predation by warm water species

Take Home Messages Climate impacts on terrestrial coastal systems depend on location - north or south, local characteristics and nature & extent of human development Changes in marine ecosystems will be unpredictable & difficult to separate out from natural variability for some time to come Salmon populations are particularly sensitive to climate change at all life stages - Oregon’s coastal ecosystems - marine and terrestrial - are adapted for change. Human development and dependence on coastal services may not be so adaptable to change unless it is planned for.