Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality TERI, New Delhi

Scope

Traffic congestion and pollution

Older fleets

Sprawling cities

Smaller cities- even less managed

Upcoming cities-Panjim

Different types and usage of vehicles Unregistered vehicles Overloading Limited maintenance

Debate Contribution of vehicular sector Which vehicles for which pollutants Road map for future norms Effect on air quality

Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ? Do we need to continually advance them ? What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ? 10

TERI integrated modelling approach Energy Modeling (MARKAL ) Emission Modeling (GAINS) Air Quality Modeling (CMAQ) Future predictio ns Met. Modelling (WRF) Impacts Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma, TERI, New Delhi

Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections ( ) 12

Scenario analysis ScenarioDescription BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities ALT-IIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-IIIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020 ALT-IVIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in

Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms ScenarioDescription BAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities ALT-IIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 ALT-IIIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020 ALT-IIIIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020 ALT-IVIntroduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

15 Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)

16 Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario

17 Benefits could be larger.. Health impacts of only PM NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants Climate benefits are additional Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too

18 Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector City:Bangalore Air quality model – CMAQ Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²) PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs Meteorological fields – WRF models runs Boundary conditions- from National scale runs Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality) City level analysis Sumit Sharma, V. Ramanathan

19 Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study Total pollution load PM T/d NO X – T/d SO 2 – 14.6 T/d

20 Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear) Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore

21 Model comparison

22 Future projections Future year 2030 Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands Domestic sector projections based on population growth Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current BAU scenario Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current levels Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions caused by incerased number of vehicles ALT scenario BS-VI introduced from 2020 Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.

23 Future projections : Effect on air quality 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations Many areas start meeting the standards

24 Future projections : EC also reduced. may affect the local climate

25 Conclusions Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both National and urban scales A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.

26 Thanks