FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009. Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK,

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Presentation transcript:

FSR 2009:02 26/11/2009

Government support from the Riksbank and the Swedish National Debt Office to financial institutions on the Swedish market SEK, billion Sources: the Riksbank and Swedish National Debt OfficeChart 1:1

Federal Reserve balance sheet USD, billions Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:2

Three-month interbank rate minus expected policy rate Basis points Source: BloombergChart 1:3

Decomposition of the swedish basis spread Basis points Source: The RiksbankChart 1:4

Outstanding volumes in US commercial paper USD, billions Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:5

Outstanding volumes of Euro Commercial Paper USD, billions Source: EuroclearChart 1:6

Ten-year government bond yields in various countries Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:7

Issues of corporate bonds in US dollar USD, Billions Source: SIFMAChart 1:8

Credit spreads for corporate bonds in the United States and euro area Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:9

Credit spreads for high yield corporate bonds in the United States and euro area Basis points Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:10

Actual global default rate and forecast Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:11

Difference between mortgage bond yields and government bond yields with two and five years maturity respectively Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 1:12

Premiums in the CDS index Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and BloombergChart 1:13

U.S. securitization market issuance volumes USD, billions Source: Securities Industry and Markets AssociationChart 1:14

Stock market developments Index, 28 December 2007=100 Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:15

Implied stock market volatility Per cent, 10 day moving average Source: BloombergChart 1:16

P/E ratios Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:17

Swedish stress index Source: The RiksbankChart B1

International stress index Source: The RiksbankChart B2

Do you consider that the financial crisis has peaked? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B3 Result spring 2009 Result autumn 2009 Yes No Don’t know Yes No Don’t know 86% 5% 9% 46% 35% 19%

How has your propensity to take risk changed compared to six month ago? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B4 29% 20% Result spring 2009Result autumn 2009 Greatly increased Increase d slightly Neither increased or decreased Decrease d slightly Greatly decrease d 32% 5% 52% 9% 34% 19% 7% 28% 12% Greatly increased Increase d slightly Neither increased or decreased Decrease d slightly Greatly decreased, 2%

How has your institution’s buffer of liquid assets changed compared to six month ago? Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart B5 28% 12% 9% 29% 20% 17% 13% 5% 28% 17% Result spring 2009Result autumn 2009 Don’t know Don’t know Greatly increased Increase d slightly Neither increased or decreased Decrease d slightly Greatly decrease d Greatly decreased, 2%

Households' financial net wealth Percentage of disposable income Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:1

Households' nominal disposable income and saving ratio Annual percentage change and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:2

Households' total borrowing from credit institutions Annual percentage change Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3

Consumer credit with housing as collateral, as a percentage of disposable income Per cent Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:4

Breakdown of households' new loans by fixed interest period Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart 2:5

Households' debt and post-tax interest exependiture Percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:6

Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan losses Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:7

Percentage of debt and assets held by indebted households in different income groups Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:8

House prices in Sweden and the Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö regions Index, 1986 = 100 Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:9

Tenant-owned apartment prices, three-month moving average SEK per square metre Source: 2:10

Time to sale in Sweden Number of days, median Sources: Hemnet and 2:11

Real house prices in Sweden and abroad Index, 1995 = 100 Sources: The BIS, Reuters EcoWin and Statistics SwedenChart B6

Real house prices in Sweden and abroad Index, 1995 = 100 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Statisics SwedenChart B7

Household debt as percentage of disposable income Per cent Sources: The BIS, national central banks, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B8

Percentage of new borrowing with variable interest rates Per cent Source: European Mortgage FederationChart B9

Housing investment in relation to GDP, seasonally-adjusted data Per cent Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart B10

Housing investments in relation to GDP, compared with changes in real house prices Per cent Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B11

Change of mortgage rates compared with real house prices Percentage and per cent Sources: European Mortgage Federation, Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of AustraliaChart B12

Interest rate changes as of 31 March 2009 compared with 30 September 2008 Percentage points Sources: Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reuters EcoWinChart B13

Real house prices as a percentage of GDP in constant prices Index, 2000 = 100 Source: Reuters EcoWinChart B14

Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companies Per cent Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:12

Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companies Ratio Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:13

Current ratio in Swedish listed companies Per cent Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:14

The number of company bankruptcies broken down by company size Twelve-month moving average Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:15

Corporate borrowing form credit institutions and their securities funding SEK billion Source: The RiksbankChart 2:16

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:17

Corporate credit risk, outcome and forecast according to the Riksbank's main scenario Per cent Sources: Moody's KMV and the RiksbankChart 2:18

Transaction volumes on the Swedish commercial property market SEK billion Sources: Savills and the RiksbankChart 2:19

Prices for office premises in Sweden and abroad Annual percentage change Sources: IPD, Reuters EcoWin, MIT Center for Real Estate, Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:20

Real prices of office premises in city centres Index, 1981 = 100 Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:21

Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centres Per cent Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:22

Real prices and rents of office premises in Stockholm city centre Annual percentage change Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:23

Vacancy rate for office premises in city centres Per cent Source: NewsecChart 2:24

Number of employed in the business sector Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:25

Expected default frequency (EDF) and share prices for property companies Index, January 2005 = 100 and per cent Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:26

House prices Annual percentage change Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the BISChart 2:27

Companies borrowings Annual percentage change Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:28

Households' borrowings Annual percentage change Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:29

Expected default frequency for listed non- financial companies Per cent Sources: Moody's KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:30

Corporate defaults Twelve month moving average Sources: National statistics officesChart 2:31

GDP Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:32

Current account Percentage of GDP Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:33

Unemployment Per cent Source: EurostatChart 2:34

Consumer confidence indicator Net figures, per cent Source: European CommissionChart 2:35

Real exchange rates for the Baltic countries Index, 2000 = 100 Source: The BISChart 2:36

Nominal wages Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:37

Harmonised index for consumer prices Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:38

Household borrowing Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:39

Corporate borrowing Annual percentage change Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:40

Households' and companies' debt in realtion to GDP Per cent Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:41

Late payments Per cent of outstanding loans Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission and Lietuvos BankasChart 2:42

GDP in constant prices Annual percentage change Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook DB, Oct 09, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts, Sep 09, the RiksbankChart 2:43

Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Ukraine Per cent of nominal GDP Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:44

Bank borrowing in foreign and domestic currency in Russia Per cent of nominal GDP Sources: Reuters EcoWin, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009, and the RiksbankChart 2:45

The banks' earnings SEK billion Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1

Lending per geographical area and borrower category, September 2009 Per cent of total lending Sources: Banks reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2

Net interest income in relation to interest- bearing assets Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3

The major banks' securities-related commission income and turnover and stock market index Index, 2003 Q1 = 100 Sources: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:4

Allocation of total assets Per cent, September 2009 Chart 3:5 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank

Market shares of lending in the Baltic countries Per cent, September 2009 Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:6

The major banks' loan losses Percentage of lending Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:7

Earnings before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major banks Summed up over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 30 September 2009 Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 3:8

Distribution of loan losses per region in the period Q to 2011 in the Riksbank's main scenario SEK billion and per cent Source: The RiksbankChart 3:9

Total loan losses in the Riksbank's main scenario in relation to lending Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10

The core Tier 1 capital ratios of European banks, March 2009 Per cent Source: NomuraChart 3:11

Assets in relation to equity Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12

The banks' sources of financing, September 2009 Per cent Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:13

The banks' deposits and lending SEK billion Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3: mar-01mar-02mar-03mar-04mar-05mar-06mar-07mar-08mar-09mar-10 LoansDepositsDeposit deficit

The major bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major bank defaulted on payments Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart 3:15

The bank's Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital, actual and in the stress test Per cent Source: The RiksbankChart 3:16

Spread over swap for covered bonds in EUR, five years Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart B15

EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread, five years Basis points Source: BloombergChart B16

Money market basis spread (between 6 months EURIBOR and 3 months EURIBOR), five years Basis points Source: BloombergChart B17