CT Economic Outlook 2008:Q1 to 2012:Q4 Edward J. Deak, Ph.D. CT Model Manager, NEEP Professor of Economics Fairfield University Federal Reserve Bank of.

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CT Economic Outlook 2008:Q1 to 2012:Q4 Edward J. Deak, Ph.D. CT Model Manager, NEEP Professor of Economics Fairfield University Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, May 30, 2008

CT Economy in Decline March/April 2008 Status y Jobs: Peak 12/07, Jan-Apr 08 = -7.2k –Cuts: Trade, Bus Services, Mfg, Financial –Adds: Educ + Health, Gov, Leisure+Hospit yUE Rate %: 4.4=1-6/07, Apr 08=4.7 US=5.0 yState + Local Budgets: State deficit -$67m –Local $ cuts + layoffs, State deficit ’09? yCasino Revenues: Both 10%+ for slot $ yNew UE Claims: 7.6% from 4/07

CT Housing Market In Recession yPermits: 07=16.1% =7,746, 08Q1=15% –Peak: 05=11,885, 07 lowest # since 1991 ySales Existing: 07=12%, 08Q1=30% –Peak: 05=58.1k, 07=45.6k lowest since ‘96 yPrices: 07=2% to $320.6k, C-S 4qtrs ‘07 –08Q1=6% at $279,900, DOM=139 6% yForeclosure Filings: 08Q1=7, % ySubprime Del: 08Q1=27.1%, US=26.8%

Quadruple Economic Whammy for CT –Housing: prices + building recession + Tighter credit +Financial market freeze –Financial Sector: Bonus Income, # of job cuts, Wall St affects Main St –CT Energy Costs: Elec, gasoline, HHO $10,800 per yr per 4 person household. –Food Prices

Annual Job Change %: CT vs. U.S

Specific CT Job Changes yJob Additions: 27 firms at 4,301 jobs –Foxwoods Casino +2,300 in 08Q2=MGM –Mohegan Sun Casino +2,000 to 2010 –Royal Bank of Scotland +1,000 late 09Q2 –Yale-New Haven Hospital Q4 –Blue Sky Q4 yJob Cuts: 23 firms 1,728 jobs –Stevenson Lumber Q2 –Clairol :Q1 –LifeTouch Q2 –Federal Reserve check clearing Q1

Job Changes Publicly Stated September 2007-April 2008

% Change CT Jobs: by Employment Sector yMfg yConst yTrade yLeis/Hosp yEd/Hlth yFin Serv yBus serv yGovt

% Change in GDP: CT vs. U.S

%  Real Personal Income CT vs. U.S

CT v. U.S Home Permits: % Change

CT v. US Sales Existing Homes: % Change

CT v. U.S. Median Sale Price: % Change

CT Nom Per Income v. Median Sale Price: % 

Who in CT is being Crunched by the Credit Crunch? yHousing: Home owners, buyers, contractors yJob Sectors: Fin serv, const, retail yState Budget: Surplus to Deficit yLocal Budgets: $ cuts + Layoffs yPrivate Charities: Food Banks, Social Service yCollege Students: w/priv funding sources yGaming: Foxwoods + Mohegan Sun Casinos

Summary + Observations yCT Economy in Cyclical Decline: –Job peak just above previous peak: 12/07 vs. 7/00 –Recovery Traction? Another “jobless recovery”? yRecession concerns: –Housing recession, credit freeze, financial losses –Higher energy + food costs, war costs, election? yCT Challenges: –Aging population (Boomers) + Youth Out-migration –Affordable housing +Transportation + Cities –Gaps: Worker skills + training, income distribution –High bus costs: Energy, labor, taxes, office space

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