CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph. D CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES VANDANA RAO, Ph.D. Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs November 05, 2014 Mass Envirothon Workshop @ UMass Amherst Introduction Me EOEA On behalf of Governor and Secretary

Granted, we don’t have this…… Location: Mumbai (Bombay), India

Or this………

But we are ALREADY seeing more of this…. July 10, 2010 Storm – 4 inches in 1 hour Source: John Bolduc, Environmental Planner, City of Cambridge

and this…….

and this….. Source: Boston Globe Plum Island

And on the other hand….. ………….this too!

So what is really going on?

GLOBAL SCALE

Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased at levels unprecedented in at least last 800,000 yrs CO2 has increased by 40% since pre-industrial times primarily from fuel emissions and net land use change emissions Ocean has absorbed 30% of emitted CO2 causing ocean acidification

Observed Global Atmospheric Changes Each of the last three decades has been successfully warmer than any preceding decade since 1850 Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Predicted Global Atmospheric Changes Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Predicted Surface Temperature Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

Global Sea Level Rise (SLR) Rate of SLR since the mid 19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Between 1901-2010 SLR rose by 0.19m

Source: Draft National Climate Assessment

Ice & Snow Cover Over last 2 decades, Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets losing mass Glaciers continued to shrink worldwide Arctic sea ice & Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover continued to decrease Very High Confidence that extent of northern hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th century – 1.6% per decade for March and April; 11.7% per decade for June over 1967-2012 period. Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report, 2013

REGIONAL SCALE

Observed Precipitation Image Credit: New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment, http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

Observed Precipitation Annual Total Heavy Downpours Observed Change in Annual Heavy Precipitation i.e. 1% of all daily events from 1901 to 2012 Observed Annual total precipitation changes for 1901-2012 compared to 1901-1960 Source: Climate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014

Precipitation Flooding Increased precipitation Left: showing percentage increases in heavy precipitation (heaviest 1% of all events) from 1958 to 2007 for each US Region. Clear trends in the Northeast towards heavy precipitation. Right: the frequency of extreme storms from 1948 to 2011. Northeast has seen the greatest increase in the frequency of extreme storm events. Percent increase in amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012

Predicted Precipitation

Comparing 100-year 24-hour rain event – Old vs New data More Intense Storms 100-year - 24 hour Design Storm Comparison County TP-40 Rainfall (1930-1960) (inches) NRCC Rainfall – aka Cornell (1936-2008) Percent Change NOAA - Atlas14 draft (1849 - 2013) Barnstable 7.1 8.2 16 % Between 7.0 – 8.51 Berkshire 6.4 7.6 19 % Bristol 7.0 8.6 22 % Dukes 7.2 8.3 15 % Essex 8.8 38 % Franklin 6.2 7.4 Hampden 6.5 8.0 23 % Hampshire Middlesex 8.5 33 % Plymouth 6.9 8.7 26 % Worcester 29 %

More Water……YAAAYY!!! . So, What’s the problem??

Impacts from Typical Development The Problem…………. Impacts from Typical Development Pre-Development

The Problem…………. High Evapo-Transpiration Decreased recharge because of less snowpack less snow melt high intensity storm events Short term droughts

Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping In addition……… Low Flow due to Excessive Water Supply Pumping Aquifers provide 70-80% of river baseflow (up to 100% in drought)

Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems and……… Potential Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Hydrologic Systems 2. Higher Water Table, Reduced Depth-to-Water 1. Higher Sea Level 3: Increased Baseflow 4: Saltwater Intrusion

and……… 4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc. 4 foot compliance without SLR, but only 2 foot with SLR

“Sandy was a whole other story “Sandy was a whole other story.” Jim Cooper, Superintendent of Milford (CT) Wastewater Division

In other words……. Changing Water Regime impacts our - AQUATIC RESOURCES - INFRASTRUCTURE - BUILT ENVIRONMENT

So how is Massachusetts addressing its long-term Water Sustainability?

Protect Existing Supplies Aquifer Land Purchase Protect Existing Supplies Allocate Water Wisely Ensure Recharge Stormwater, Low Impact Development Permit Mitigation Use Water Wisely MA Water Conservation Standards Permit Conditions Smart Growth State Funding & Technical Assistance Green Infrastructure State Funding - EEA, CZM

(617) 626-1248 email: vandana.rao@state.ma.us Thank you! Vandana Rao (617) 626-1248 email: vandana.rao@state.ma.us http: www.mass.gov/eea