Introduction and context of the study 5 minutes Concept of Environmental Model Uncertainty & Variability, Modeling & Example 15 minutes Baseline development 15 minutes Scenario development Set of scenarios 15 minutes Cost benefit assessment 10 minutes Exercises 20 minutes Conclusion 10 minutes

NameAffiliationNameAffiliation David Saah; Co-LeadUniversity of San Francisco, SIGPhan Xuan ThieuVinh University, Vietnam Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-LeadUniversity Putra MalaysiaChalita SriladdaUSAID-LEAD Khamla Phanvilay, Co-LeadNational University of LaosHoang Thi Thu DuyenVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Cao Thuy AnhDalat University, VietnamLadawan PuangchitKasetsart University, Thailand Chalermpol SamranpongChiang Mai University, ThailandDo Anh TuanVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Pham Thanh NamUSAID LEAF VietnamLyna KhanRoyal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia Peter StephenUSAID LEAF BangkokLe Ba ThuongVietnam Forestry University, Vietnam Hoang Vinh PhuVinh University, VietnamNapat JakwattanaUniversity of Phayao, Thailand Vipak JintanaKasetsart University, ThailandNur Anishah Binti AzizUniversity Kebangsaan Malaysia Kulala MulungPNG University of TechnologyRatcha ChaichanaKasetsart University, Thailand Somvilay ChanthalounnavongNational University of LaosSureerat LakanavichianChiang Mai University, Thailand Thavrak HuonRoyal University of Agriculture, CambodiaVongphet SihapanyaNational University of Laos Athsaphangthong MunelithUSAID LEAF LaosDavid GanzUSAID LEAF Bangkok Attachai JintrawetChiang Mai University, ThailandChi Pham, Project CoordinatorUSAID LEAF Bangkok Chanin ChiumkanokchaiUSAID LEAF BangkokKent ElliottUS Forest Service Lam Ngoc TuanDalat University, VietnamBeth LebowUS Forest Service Mark FennUSAID Vietnam Forests & DeltasGeoffrey BlateUS Forest Service

Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP) SECTION 3. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS Overview Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development

ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION ANALYSIS OF FUTURE OPTIONS NEGOTIATING & PRIORITIZING IMPLEMENTA- TION PLAN MONITORING & EVALUATION Low Emission Land Use Planning 1.1. Regulatory Assessments 1.2. Stakeholder Engagement 1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives 2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1. Modeling Future Trends 3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction 3.3. Scenario Assessment

Rules of the Game Time/Space Drivers of Change Goal / Objective NOW Past Trend / Current Condition BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 + / - M&E

At the end of Section 3, learners will be able to:  Recognize and apply the concept of modeling an environment including climate change  Develop a baseline assessment with the BAU scenario including climate change  Identify series of future potential scenarios and analyze their impacts (socio-economic, environmental) CLIMATE CHANGE

Relevant aspects Understand Quantify Visualize Operationalize Scientific discipline Conceptual Model Mathematics Model Graphic Model Operational Model

 Conceptual/understanding  Strategic decisions  Tactical decisions

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Average precipitation in the lower Mekong River basin

Variability:  The quality, state, or degree of being variable or changeable. Measure of variability:  How much the performance of the group deviates from the mean or median.

Uncertainty:  The lack of certainty or a state of having limited knowledge Measurement of Uncertainty:  A set of possible states or outcomes

In the context of Climate change and Land use management, what are the components of uncertainty? Economic Social Environmental Institutional

What are the common points and the differences between these terms and how would it influence a model? Variability Uncertainty

Current state, threats and future state of deforestation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia (A) Protected in relation to the area deforested (red) between 1997 and (B) Threat map of future deforestation, produced from reclassifying the SFC map and masking out already deforested areas. (C) Simulated deforestation in between 2003 (present) and 2013 (future at the time). Source:

Slower Economic Growth Climate Change and Agriculture, Chito P. Medina Rapid Economic Growth

Concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere for the three emissions cases, 1990–2100

Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play (UNEP 2002) Scenarios Planning

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition BASELINE Scenario Performance

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario Performance

Time/Space Drivers of Change NOW Past Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Historic Mean) Reference Level (Historic Trend) Reference Level (Policy)

efficient baseline case, which assumes that all resources are employed efficiently; and “business-as-usual” baseline case, which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place.

Scenario Contents Project goal Process design

3 key steps:  Clarify purpose  Lay foundation  Develop and test

Stakeholders involvement

Vivid By Xiang & Clarke Interactive Plausible

Does it meet the purpose of the scenarios fixed before? Does it respond to the need of the stakeholders?

Time/Space Drivers of Change Goal / Objective NOW Past Trend / Current Condition BAU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 + / -

 Identification of significant impacts  Measurement of benefits  Measurement of costs  Net value/ Ratio of Cost-Benefit

We have moved through a process that allows us to determine a set of possible future scenarios that may allow us to move away from Business As Usual.

3.2 Business as Usual Baseline Construction Land Use Planning & Climate Change 1.1 Regulatory Assessments 1.2 Stakeholder Engagement 1.3 Planning & Development Goals & Objectives 2.1 Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs 2.2 Understanding Historic Land Use Change 2.3 Data & Capacity Gap Assessment 3.1 Modeling Future Trends 3.3 Scenario Assessment

 Modeling the interaction of climate change: water availability and socio-economic scenarios on cereal production Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, AEA Group & University of East Anglia   Province of Manitoba: Guide for Conducting Municipal GHG Inventories and Forecasts in Manitoba  Modeling REDD Baselines using IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler, IDRISI Focus Paper  Climate Adaptation : Risk, Uncertainty, Decision making, UKCP Technical support, May 2013  Characterization Uncertainty for regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Mitigation Decision  The use of scenarios in land-use planning, Clarke & Xiang  Developing a scenario development approach and the alternative land use scenario, the case of Pakal, Benovo, SambikerepDistrict of Surabaya City